Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

4:40pm Oxford-style debate: This house believes that investors and bankers, not politicians or social movements, are the best hope for avoiding climate disaster. Moderator: Matthew Bishop, senior editor, The Economist Group Speakers: Lisa Ashford, chief executive officer, Ethex Mark Campanale, founder, Carbon Tracker Mark Goldring, chief executive officer, Oxfam Lutfey Siddiqi, visiting professor-in-practice, Centre for …

Read More »

Why do so few of China’s LGBT people come out? | The Economist

2017-06-15

Being gay in China is still a massive taboo. In fact, only 3% of gay men and 6% of gay women describe themselves as “completely out”, and an estimated 70% of gay Chinese have entered into heterosexual marriages. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Why do so few lesbian, gay, bisexual …

Read More »

All About Inventory

2017-06-14

2017-06-14

Crude Oil Stocks, January 2009 - June 2017

Andy Hall has been called the God of Oil. As chief of Astenbeck Capital, he has proven at times that even gods can be mortal. In the “rising dollar” period, for example, after making money on the way down Mr. Hall went bullish.

Read More »

Forced Finally To A Binary Labor Interpretation

2017-06-13

2017-06-13

U.S. Job Openings, December 2000 - June 2017

JOLTS figures for the month of April 2017, released today, highlight what is in the end likely to be a more positive outcome for them. It has very little to do with the economy itself, as what we are witnessing is the culmination of extreme positions that have been made and estimated going all the way back to 2014.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-06-12

2017-06-12

EM FX was mixed last week but in general held up well in the aftermath of Super Thursday. The global backdrop seems relatively benign right now despite the FOMC meeting this week. We still think investors have to be picky. TRY, ZAR, and BRL at current levels seem too rich given the underlying risks in all three.

Read More »

Signs of Something, Just Not Wage Acceleration

2017-06-11

2017-06-11

Average Weekly Earnings Production And Nonsupervisory, January 1990 - May 2017

I have been writing for many years that they really don’t know what they are doing. I only wish it was that simple. There has been developing another layer or dimension to that condition, a second derivative of stupid, whereby when faced with this now well-established fact the same people, experts and authorities all, they have no frame of reference to figure out what next to do. In other words, they really don’t know what to do when they realize...

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-06-10

2017-06-10

The Reserve Bank of India cut its inflation forecast for FY2017/18. South Korean President Moon suspended the installation of the remaining components of the THAAD missile shield. S&P cut Qatar one notch to AA-. Turkey looks likely to get caught up in yet another regional conflict. Brazil’s structural reform agenda has been delayed as President Temer remains on the ropes.

Read More »

The Anti-Perfect Jobs Condition

2017-06-10

2017-06-10

Unemployment Rate, January 2013 - May 2017

The irony of the unemployment rate for the Federal Reserve is that the lower it gets now the bigger the problem it is for officials. It has been up to this year their sole source of economic comfort. Throughout 2015, the Establishment Survey improperly contributed much the same sympathy, but even it no longer resides on the plus side of the official ledger.

Read More »

Dollars And Sent(iment)s

2017-06-09

2017-06-09

ISM Manufacturing PMI, July 2014 - May 2017

Both US manufacturing PMI’s underwhelmed just as those from China did. The IHS Markit Index was lower than the flash reading and the lowest level since last September. For May 2017, it registered 52.7, down from 52.8 in April and a high of 55.0 in January. Just by description alone you can appreciate exactly what pattern that fits. The ISM Manufacturing PMI was slightly higher in May than April, 54.9 versus 54.8, but still down from a February peak...

Read More »

Ridding the ocean of plastic | The Economist

2017-06-08

By 2050 the plastic in the world’s oceans could weigh more than the fish. On World Oceans Day actor Adrian Grenier, and young entrepreneur Boyan Slat, look for solutions to the problem. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Eight million tonnes of plastic pollution are washed into the ocean every year. …

Read More »

Why the melting Arctic matters to us all | The Economist

2017-06-08

Donald Trump is pulling America out of the Paris climate agreement. But if nothing is done to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, cities such as New York and Mumbai will have to defend themselves from flooding by the end of the century as sea levels rise. An earlier version of this video wrongly stated that the Maldives …

Read More »

Pay No Attention To 50

2017-06-08

2017-06-08

China NBS Manufacturing PMI, May 2007 - May 2017

China’s PMI’s were uniformly disappointing with respect to what Moody’s was on about last week. Chinese authorities expended great effort and resources to get the economy moving forward again after several years of “dollar”-driven deceleration. here was a massive “stimulus” spending program where State-owned FAI expenditures of about 2% of GDP were elicited to make up for Private FAI that at one point last year was actually contracting.

Read More »

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: The Return of Economic Ennui

2017-06-07

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-06-07

The economic reports released since the last of these updates was generally not all that bad but the reports considered more important were disappointing. And it should be noted that economic reports lately have generally been worse than expected which, if you believe the market to be fairly efficient, is what really matters.

Read More »

The Path to Inflation: “Helicopter Money”

2017-06-06

by Charles Hugh Smith

2017-06-06

Yet conventional economists are virtually unanimous that deflation is the danger and inflation is a "good thing" we need to spur so servicing existing debt becomes easier for debtors. Due to the deflationary pressures of technology and stagnant wages for the bottom 90%, the consensus sees low inflation as far as the eye can see.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-06-05

2017-06-05

EM FX closed last week on a firm note as weak US jobs data supported the notion that the Fed will find it hard to tighten in H2. No major US data will be reported this week and the FOMC embargo for the June 14will be in effect. As such, there is little on the near-term horizon that might help the dollar, so it’s likely to remain on the defensive this week.

Read More »

How Debt-Asset Bubbles Implode: The Supernova Model of Financial Collapse

2017-06-04

by Charles Hugh Smith

2017-06-04

Venezuelan Bolivar, January 2013 - May 2017

Gravity eventually overpowers financial fakery. When debt-asset bubbles expand at rates far above the expansion of earnings and real-world productive wealth, their collapse is inevitable. The Supernova model of financial collapse is one way to understand this. As I noted yesterday in Will the Crazy Global Debt Bubble Ever End?, I've used the Supernova analogy for years, but didn't properly explain why it illuminates the dynamics of financial...

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-06-03

2017-06-03

The Indonesian cabinet is discussing revisions to the 2017 state budget. The Thai central bank plans to reform some FX rules. South African President Zuma survived the no confidence vote within his own ANC. Brazil’s central bank signaled a slower pace of easing ahead after it cut 100 bp again. Moody’s cut the outlook on Brazil’s Ba2 rating from stable to negative.

Read More »

Will the Crazy Global Debt Bubble Ever End?

2017-06-03

by Charles Hugh Smith

2017-06-03

We've been playing two games to mask insolvency: one is to pay the costs of rampant debt today by borrowing even more from future earnings, and the second is to create wealth out of thin air via asset bubbles. The two games are connected: asset bubbles require leverage and credit.

Read More »

Who will decide the outcome of the British election? | The Economist

2017-06-02