Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

In Venezuela, a rigged election, months of violent protests and a power hungry leader created a dangerous cocktail. KAL’s cartoon commentary Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk …

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Inflation Is Not About Consumer Prices

2017-08-04

2017-08-04

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product, 1993 - 2017

I suspect President Trump has been told that markets don’t like radical changes. If there is one thing that any elected official is afraid of, it’s the internet flooded with reports of grave financial instability. We need only go back a year to find otherwise confident authorities suddenly reassessing their whole outlook.

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13 April 2017 Charles Hugh Smith sheds interesting light upon cause of the retail apocalyp

2017-08-04

While much has been written about the massive retail decline in America, Charles Hugh Smith sheds interesting light upon another core cause of the retail . While much has been written about the massive retail decline in America, Charles Hugh Smith sheds interesting light upon another core cause of the retail . While much has …

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Charles Hugh Smith On Where The Jobs Are

2017-08-02

Click here for the full summary and slides: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2017/08/02/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-where-the-jobs-are/

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Extending The Cycle

2017-08-01

by Joseph Y. Calhoun

2017-08-01

This economic cycle is one of the longest on record for the US, eight years and counting since the end of the last recession. It has also been, as almost everyone knows, a fairly weak expansion, one that has managed to disappoint both bull and bear.

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Rwanda’s eternal president, Paul Kagame | The Economist

2017-07-31

Under President Paul Kagame Rwanda has gone from carnage to calm. So why are his people terrified of him? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2017-07-31

2017-07-31

EM FX was mixed last week, as markets await fresh drivers. Jobs report this Friday could provide greater clarity with regards to Fed policy. BOE and RBA meet but aren’t expected to change policy. Data is likely to reinforce the notion that inflation remains low in EM, allowing those central banks to remain dovish. Czech National Bank is the main exception, as it may start the tightening cycle this week.

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-07-29

2017-07-29

Indonesia’s parliament approved a revised budget for 2017 that sees a wider deficit. Pakistan’s Supreme Court has ousted Prime Minister Sharif. Polish President Duda vetoed portions of the judicial reform bill submitted by the Law and Justice party.

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Sergei Shnurov: Rocking the Kremlin | The Economist

2017-07-27

Sergei Shnurov, described as Russia’s most popular rock star, with a fanbase to match Putin. Meet Sergei Shnurov Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The Economist …

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The Two Charts That Dictate the Future of the Economy

2017-07-27

2017-07-27

US Average Household Income, 1965 - 2017

The stock market, bond yields and statistical measures of the economy can be gamed, manipulated and massaged by authorities, but the real economy cannot. This is espcially true for the core drivers of the economy, real (adjusted for inflation) household income and real disposable household income, i.e. the real income remaining after debt service (interest and principal), rent, healthcare co-payments and insurance and other essential living expenses.

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U.S. Consumer Price Index, Oil Prices: Why It Will Continue, Again Continued

2017-07-26

2017-07-26

Quarterly Report on Bank Derivatives, Jan 1998 - 2017

Part of “reflation” was always going to be banks making more money in money. These days that is called FICC – Fixed Income, Currency, Commodities. There’s a bunch of activities included in that mix, but it’s mostly derivative trading books forming the backbone of math-as-money money. The better the revenue conditions in FICC, the more likely banks are going to want to do more of it, perhaps to the point of reversing what is just one quarter shy of...

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Commercial Property Market Is Inflated and May Burst Again – McWilliams

2017-07-25

by Mark O'Byrne

2017-07-25

Dublin property investors had better hope that Brexit happens soon. They should also hope that it’s not just a ‘hard’ Brexit, but a granite Brexit — a Brexit that’s as hard as possible. They should be betting on the buffoonery of Boris Johnson, down on both knees praying for a massive barney between Davis and Barnier.

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There Is Only One Empire: Finance

2017-07-25

2017-07-25

There's an entire sub-industry in journalism devoted to the idea that China is poised to replace the U.S. as the "global empire" / hegemon. This notion of global empire being something like a baton that gets passed from nation-state to nation-state is seriously misleading, in my view, for this reason:

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Osaka: An Insiders Guide | The Economist

2017-07-24

Osaka is the fastest-growing destination city in the world. Three locals give us their top tips for experiencing Japan’s second largest city. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.trib.al/rWl91R7 Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: …

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Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2017-07-24

2017-07-24

EM FX was mixed on Friday, but largely firmer over the entire week. Top performers were BRL, KRW, and ZAR, while the worst were ARS, MXN, and RUB. FOMC meeting this week poses some potential risks to the global liquidity story that’s supporting EM. Within EM, the low inflation/easy monetary policy narrative should continue with data and events this week.

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Reports on a Quarterly Survey Conducted: Qualifying Shortage (Labor)

2017-07-23

2017-07-23

There isn’t a day that goes by in 2017 where some study is released or anecdote is published purporting a sinister labor market development. There is a shortage of workers, we are told, often a very big one. The idea is simple enough; the media has been writing for years that the US economy was recovering, and they would very much like to either see one and be proven right (and that recent revived populism is illegitimate), or find an excuse why...

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Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-07-22

2017-07-22

South Korea proposed resuming military and humanitarian exchanges with North Korea. The European Union may sanction Poland over its controversial judicial overhaul. Turkish Prime Minister Yildirim announced a cabinet shuffle after meeting with President Erdogan. Turkey’s worsening relations with Germany will come with economic costs. South African Reserve Bank surprised markets by starting the easing cycle with a 25 bp cut to 7.0%.

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China’s Economy Shorthand the Largest Asset Bubble in Human History

2017-07-22

2017-07-22

China Industrial Production, June 1997 - Jun 2017

The term “ghost city” is a loaded one, often deployed to skew toward a particular viewpoint. In the context of China’s economy, it has become shorthand for perhaps the largest asset bubble in human history. While that may ultimately be the case, in truth China’s ghost cities aren’t about the past but its future.

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Trump and Putin’s chess match, by KAL | The Economist

2017-07-21