Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Stock Market 2018: The Tao vs. Central Banks

2017-12-04

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2017-12-04

Asset Prices vs GDP, 1992 - 2016
The central banks claim omnipotent financial powers, and their comeuppance is overdue. will be the first to admit that invoking the woo-woo of the Tao as the reason to expect a reversal of the stock market in 2018 smacks of Bearish desperation. With everything coming up roses in much of the global economy, there is precious little foundation for calling a tumultuous end to the global Bull Market other than variations of nothing lasts forever.

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Did Anyone Do Even a Minimal Check on the Sensationalist Bitcoin Electrical Consumption Story?

2017-12-03

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2017-12-03

Total Global Energy Consumption
Check the context before uncritically accepting sensationalist conclusions. Let's start with a primer on how to write a sensationalist story that can be passed off as "journalism:" 1. Locate credible-sounding data that can be de-contextualized, i.e. sensationalized. 2. Present the data as "fact" rather than data that requires verification by disinterested researchers.

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Charles Hugh Smith Insights On Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies

2017-12-02

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Click here for the full transcript with slides: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2017/12/02/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-insights-on-bitcoin-and-cryptocurrencies/

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2017-12-02

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2017-12-02

Moderate Allocation
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor the allocation to bonds is 50%, risk assets 45% and cash 5%. The extreme overbought condition of the US stock market did not correct since the last update and so I will continue to hold a modest amount of cash.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2017-12-02

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2017-12-02

Bank of Korea hiked rates by 25 bp to 1.50%, the first hike in six years. Egypt central bank lifted the last remaining currency controls. S&P cut South Africa’s foreign currency rating one notch to BB with stable outlook. Turkey President Erdogan was implicated in an alleged plot to help Iran evade US sanctions. Moody’s upgraded Argentina one notch to B2 with stable outlook.

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My Crazy $17,000 Target for Bitcoin Is Looking Less Crazy

2017-12-01

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2017-12-01

Bitcoin Potential Value
The basis of this admittedly crazy forecast was simple: capital flows. I think we can all agree that bitcoin (BTC) is "interesting." One of the primary reason that bitcoin (and cryptocurrency in general) is interesting is that nobody knows what will happen going forward. Unknowns and big swings up and down are characteristics of open markets.It's impossible to forecast bitcoin's future price because virtually all the future inputs are unknown.

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The Asymmetry of Bubbles: the Status Quo and Bitcoin

2017-12-01

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2017-12-01

Global Financial Assets, 2005 - 2014
Regardless of one's own views about bitcoin/cryptocurrency, what is truly remarkable is the asymmetry that is applied to questioning the status quo and bitcoin. As I noted yesterday, everyone seems just fine with throwing away $20 billion in electricity annually in the U.S. alone to keep hundreds of millions of gadgets in stand-by mode, but the electrical consumption of bitcoin is "shocking," "ridiculous," etc.

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Donald Trump’s big test in 2018 | The Economist

2017-11-30

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Donald Trump will face his biggest test as president in November 2018. A bad result in the mid-term elections could lead to his impeachment. Can Mr Trump unite and rally Republican voters? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2zPS0MH In November 2018 President Donald Trump will face his biggest political test yet …

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Keiser Report: Fetid Swamp of US Tax Reform (E1156)

2017-11-30

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Check Keiser Report website for more: http://www.maxkeiser.com/ In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max and Stacy discuss the housing crisis as wealth transfer. In the second half, Max interviews Charles Hugh Smith of OfTwoMinds.com about the fetid swamp of tax reform. WATCH all Keiser Report shows here: http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=… (E1-E200) http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=… (E201-E400)...

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Fading Black Friday

2017-11-29

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2017-11-29

NRF Holiday Season Estimates, 2013 - 2017
Black Friday was once the king of all shopping. A retailer could make its year up on that one day, often by gimmicking its way to insane single-day volume. Those days, however, are certainly over. Though the day after Thanksgiving still means a great deal, as the annual flood of viral consumer brawl videos demonstrate, it’s just not what it once was.

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Charles Hugh Smith sheds interesting light upon cause of the retail apocalypse

2017-11-29

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While much has been written about the massive retail decline in America, Charles Hugh Smith sheds interesting light upon another core cause of the retail . Charles Hugh Smith ( Sep 11, 2017 ) – sheds interesting light upon cause of the retail apocalypse #charleshughsmithhealthcare #charleshughsmithpodcast. While much has been written about the massive retail …

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Can extreme poverty ever be eradicated? | The Economist

2017-11-28

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Poverty rates have fallen faster in the past 30 years than at any other time on record. The UN wants extreme poverty to disappear by 2030. We assess the data to see if this is achievable. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2AfBchr It is estimated that somebody escapes extreme poverty every …

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The Economy Will Rollover Charles Hugh & The Central Bankers Are Going To Shutoff The Spig

2017-11-27

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Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Websites: Of Two Minds Books: All of his books can be . The Central Bankers Are Going To Shutoff The Spigot And The Economy Will Rollover Charles Hugh. The Central Bankers Are Going To Shutoff The Spigot And The Economy Will Rollover Charles Hugh. Thanks for ing. The Central Bankers …

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Emerging Market Preview: Week Ahead

2017-11-27

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2017-11-27

EM FX ended the holiday-shortened week on a soft note. While most were up on the entire week, notable laggards were TRY, CLP, and ZAR. All three currencies underperformed due to rising political risks, and we suspect that will continue. We believe MXN and BRL are likely to rejoin the laggards in the coming days.

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Addictions: Social Media & Mobile Phones Fall From Grace

2017-11-26

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2017-11-26

US Time Spent per Adult User per Day with Digital Media, 2008 - 2015
Identifying social media and mobile phones as addictive is only the first step in a much more complex investigation. For everyone who remembers the Early Days of social media and mobile phones, it's been quite a ride from My Space and awkward texting on tiny screens to the current alarm over the addictive nature of social media and mobile telephony.

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[ Jeffrey Snider ] Evolution of Eurodollars, Money as interbank liabilities

2017-11-26

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Jeffrey Snider: Eurodollar University Part 1 — How Dollar becomes ‘Dollar’ — Bankers’ Acceptances — The Evolution of Eurodollars — Where do Eurodollars . [ Jeffrey Snider ] — Evolution of Eurodollars, Money as interbank liabilities – update 2017. Jeffrey Snider: Eurodollar University Part 1 — How Dollar becomes . Jeffrey Snider: Eurodollar University Part …

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Durable Goods Only About Halfway To Real Reflation

2017-11-25

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2017-11-25

US Core Durable Goods Orders, Jan 1993 - Jan 2017
Durable goods were boosted for a second month by the after-effects of Harvey and Irma. New orders excluding those from transportation industries rose 8.5% year-over-year in October 2017, a slight acceleration from the 6.5% average of the four previous months. Shipments of durable goods (ex transportation) also rose by 8% last month.

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Charles Hugh Smith – The Entire Economic System Is One Big Illusion

2017-11-24

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SUBSCRIBE for Latest on FINANCIAL CRISIS / OIL PRICE / PETROL / GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE / AGENDA 21 / DOLLAR COLLAPSE / GOLD / SILVER / BITCOIN / ETHEREUM / LITECOIN / GLOBAL RESET / NEW WORLD ORDER / ECONOMIC COLLAPSE / DAVOS 2018

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Beware the Marginal Buyer, Borrower and Renter

2017-11-24

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2017-11-24

S&P/Case-Shiller CA-San Francisco Home Price Index, 1990 - 2017
When times are good, the impact of the marginal buyer, borrower and renter on the market is often overlooked. By "marginal" I mean buyers, borrowers and renters who have to stretch their finances to the maximum to afford the purchase, loan or rent.

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Charles Hugh Smith Trump’s Secret Plan For America & Why The Deep State Is Trying To Stop

2017-11-24

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Charles Hugh Smith Trump’s Secret Plan For America & Why The Deep State Is Trying To Stop It. Charles Hugh Smith Trump’s Secret Plan For America & Why The Deep State Is Trying To Stop It Subscribe & More Videos: Thank for . Charles Hugh Smith Trump’s Secret Plan For America & Why The Deep …

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