Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

China: PMIs suggest moderation in momentum in Q1

2018-02-02

by

2018-02-02

Chinese official and Caixin manufacturing PMI, 2011 - 2018
China’s official manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) came in at 51.3 in January, down slightly from December (51.6). The Markit PMI (also known as the Caixin PMI) stayed at 51.5, the same as in the previous month (Chart 1). The official non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 55.0 in January from 44.8 the previous month.

Read More »

The Historical Warnings of Money

2018-02-02

by

2018-02-02

Bank of England
It’s interesting, to me anyway, that an image of the Roman goddess Juno remains to this day on the logo of the Bank of England. There are many stories about her role as it relates to money, but what cannot be denied is that the very word itself came to us from her temple. The Latin moneta was derived from the word monere, a verb meaning to warn. Moneta was Juno’s surname.

Read More »

Wooden skyscrapers could be the future for cities | The Economist

2018-02-01

by

Wooden skyscrapers are an ambitious and innovative solution to the problems posed by urbanisation. Not only are they faster to build, they have smaller carbon footprints than high-rises made of concrete and steel. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2GCblkl By 2050 the world’s population is expected to soar to almost 10 …

Read More »

Strong growth and Abenomics mean Japanese equities continue to provide opportunities

2018-02-01

by

2018-02-01

Japanese growth momentum is at its strongest in over a decade, with the quarterly Tankan survey of business conditions and sentiment strengthening to an 11 - year high in Q4 2017. The economy may have expanded by 1.8% in 2017, up from 0.9% in the previous year. In 2018, the growth rate may moderate slightly to 1.3%, but should remain well above Japan’s potential growth, which currently stands at 0.85%, according to the Bank of Japan (BoJ, see...

Read More »

Carnival: origins of the world’s biggest party | The Economist

2018-01-31

by

Carnival started as a pagan festival in ancient Egypt and has grown to become one of the largest celebrations in the world. Today more than 50 countries celebrate the tradition, but where did the party start? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2rXzONA From samba blocos in Brazil to masked balls in …

Read More »

Tax cuts and ‘animal spirits’ mean higher US growth in 2018

2018-01-31

by

2018-01-31

December’s US tax cuts – which saw corporate taxation reduced particularly sharply – are being echoed in signs that ‘animal spirits’ are finally kicking in. Both set the stage, in our view, for higher US growth, in large part driven by greater investment. We therefore upgrade our 2018 US growth forecast from 2.0% to 3.0%. We forecast that real non-residential investment growth will accelerate to 7.0% in 2018, up from an estimated 4.6% in 2017. We...

Read More »

Globally Synchronized What?

2018-01-31

by

2018-01-31

Inflation Europe, Jan 2007 - Oct 2017
In one of those rare turns, the term “globally synchronized growth” actually means what the words do. It is economic growth that for the first time in ten years has all the major economies of the world participating in it. It’s the kind of big idea that seems like a big thing we all should pay attention to. In The New York Times this weekend, we learn.

Read More »

The Pie Is Shrinking for the 99 percent

2018-01-31

by

2018-01-31

US Productivity Growth, 1980 - 2018
The ensuing social disunity and disruption will be of the sort many alive today have never seen. Social movements arise to solve problems of inequality, injustice, exploitation and oppression. In other words, they are solutions to society-wide problems plaguing the many but not the few (i.e. the elites at the top of the wealth-power pyramid).

Read More »

Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Markets At Extremes

2018-01-30

by

2018-01-30

Production ended the year on a strong note but early readings from January are not as positive. The December industrial production report headline was strong at a 0.9% gain but a lot of that strength was in the mining (oil drilling) and utility sectors. Mining has actually led the way the last year as rig count has risen with drilling activity. I’d love to see our economy less dependent on the price of oil but that is what we’ve become over the...

Read More »

Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview

2018-01-29

by

2018-01-29

EM FX closed Friday on a mixed note, but still posted solid gains for the week as a whole. Best performers last week were ZAR, PLN, and CZK while the worst were ARS, PHP, and IDR. The bearish dollar environment remains intact and so we see further gains for EM FX this week. However, we continue to warn that divergences within EM are likely to assert themselves.

Read More »

December Durable Goods

2018-01-29

by

2018-01-29

US Durable Goods Order, Jan 1993 - 2018
Durable and capital goods orders and shipments all increased in December by growth rates consistent with those registered in the months leading up to the big storms Harvey and Irma. We continue to find evidence that accelerated growth in October and November was nothing more than the anticipated after-effects cleaning up after those hurricanes.

Read More »

Forget It, China’s Not Booming

2018-01-28

by

2018-01-28

Jeffrey Snider, head of global investment research at Alhambra Investments, says China is in fact not growing rapidly, which sounds disheartening for commodity investors. He reckons a crucial investment metric has weakened, pointing to slower economic expansion.

Read More »

Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-01-27

by

2018-01-27

Korea policymakers have asked state-owned banks and companies to limit the issuance of global bonds. Malaysia's central bank hiked rates for the first time in four years. Pakistan’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates for the first time in over four years. Moody’s raised its outlook on Russia’s Ba1 rating from stable to positive. Argentina’s central bank surprised markets with its second straight 75 bp rate cut.

Read More »

China: 2018 GDP forecast revised up

2018-01-27

by

2018-01-27

The Chinese economy ended 2017 on a strong note. In Q4 2017, China’s GDP amounted to Rmb23.4 trillion (about USD3.7 trillion), rising 1.6% over the previous quarter and 6.8% year-over-year (y-o-y) in real terms. Full-year GDP came in at Rmb82.7 trillion (about USD12.9 trillion), growing by 6.9% in real terms and beating the consensus forecast as well as our own estimate (both at 6.8%).

Read More »

US chart of the week – Texas rebounds

2018-01-26

by

2018-01-26

One of the major rivalries in the US is that between California and Texas, the country’s biggest and second-biggest states respectively in GDP terms. They have different growth drivers (most notably Silicon Valley in California and the energy industry in Texas), and they also have different political landscapes – and local taxation regimes. But which one’s ahead when it comes to employment growth?

Read More »

Can We Finally Have an Honest Discussion about the Opioid Crisis?

2018-01-26

by

2018-01-26

A Lethal Record, 1999 - 2016
The economy no longer generates secure, purposeful jobs for the working class, and so millions of people live in a state of insecure despair. The opioid epidemic is generating a lot of media coverage and hand-wringing, but few if any solutions, and this is predictable: if you don't face up to the causes, then you can't solve the problem.

Read More »

Bassem Youssef: Why we should laugh at leaders | The Economist

2018-01-25

by

Bassem Youssef has been called “the Jon Stewart of the Middle East”. On the seventh anniversary of Egypt’s Arab Spring he talks to The Economist’s award-winning cartoonist, KAL, about political satire and what it means for democracy. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: http://econ.st/2GgGB8d Dr Bassem Yousef is a television comedian. He …

Read More »

The Dismal Boom

2018-01-25

by

2018-01-25

Friedman's Plucking Model of Trend-Cycle
There is a fundamental assumption behind any purchasing manager index, or PMI. These are often but not always normalized to the number 50. That’s done simply for comparison purposes and the ease of understanding in the general public. That level at least in the literature and in theory is supposed to easily and clearly define the difference between growth and contraction.

Read More »

Central Bank Transparency, Or Doing Deliberate Dollar Deals With The Devil

2018-01-25

by

2018-01-25

Hong Kong HKD, Jul 2012 - Jan 2018
The advent of open and transparent central banks is a relatively new one. For most of their history, these quasi-government institutions operated in secret and they liked it that way. As late as October 1993, for example, Alan Greenspan was testifying before Congress intentionally trying to cloud the issue as to whether verbatim transcripts of FOMC meetings actually existed.

Read More »

Charles Hugh Smith // What’s Your Job Worth / work, money and automation

2018-01-24

by

Money & Work Unchainedm started when Charles asked himself: When we dream of the future of our society, are we hoping for the right things? The current conventional-wisdom. Money & Work Unchainedm started when Charles asked himself: When we dream of the future of our society, are we hoping for the right things? The current …

Read More »