Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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U.S. Healthcare Isn’t Broken–It’s Fixed

2018-05-18

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2018-05-18

US Health Spending, 2010
If you want to understand why the U.S. healthcare system is bankrupt, financially, morally and politically, then start with this representative anecdote from a U.S. physician. I received this report from correspondent J.F. on the topic of direct advertising of pharmaceutical products to the public (patients).

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When thoughts control machines | The Economist

2018-05-17

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Efforts to connect human brains to computers have taken big leaps forward in recent years. Melding our minds with machines could provide the biggest single upgrade to human intelligence since our species evolved. But are we ready? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2Fzn4ON Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working …

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Global Asset Allocation Update

2018-05-17

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2018-05-17

Moderate Allocation
The risk budget changes this month as I add back the 5% cash raised in late October. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation to bonds is still 50% while the risk side now rises to 50% as well. I raised the cash back in late October due to the extreme overbought nature of the stock market and frankly it was a mistake. Stocks went from overbought to more overbought and I missed the rally to all time highs in January.

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All The World’s A (Imagined) Labor Shortage

2018-05-16

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2018-05-16

China Imports, Jan 2008 - Apr 2018
Last year’s infatuation with globally synchronized growth was at least understandable. From a certain, narrow point of view, Europe’s economy had accelerated. So, too, it seemed later in the year for the US economy. The Bank of Japan was actually talking about ending QQE with inflation in sight, and the PBOC was purportedly tightening as China’s economy appeared to many ready for its rebound.

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Has migration gone too far? | The Economist

2018-05-15

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Migrants from the EU into Britian are more likely to be paying taxes than claiming benefits. So why do some people think migration is harmful, and how should this divisive issue be dealt with? The Economist’s Emma Hogan offers her thoughts. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2GgNrtt Daily Watch: mind-stretching short …

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A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Market Complacency / Euphoria

2018-05-15

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2018-05-15

CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio, Dec 2017 - May 2018
Fortunately for Bulls, none of this matters. A relatively reliable measure of complacency/euphoria in the stock market just hit levels last seen in late January, just before stocks reversed in a massive meltdown, surprising all the complacent/euphoric Bulls. The measure is the put-call ratio in equities. Since this time is different, and the market is guaranteed to roar to new all-time highs, we can ignore this (of course).

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH One More Time At The End of an Economic Cycle Things Will Fall Apart

2018-05-15

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All our reports and Daily Alert News are backed up by source links. We work very hard to bring you the facts and We research everything before presenting the report. Subscribe for Latest on Financial Crisis, Oil Price, Global Economic Collapse, Dollar Collapse, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Global Reset, New World Order, Economic Collapse, Economic News, …

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Emerging Markets: Preview of the Week Ahead

2018-05-14

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2018-05-14

EM FX ended Friday on a week note and capped of another generally negative week. Worst performers last week were ARS, BRL, and TRY while the best were ZAR, RUB, and KRW. We remain negative on EM FX and look for losses to continue. US retail sales data Tuesday pose further downside risks to EM FX.

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH – One More Time At The End of an Economic Cycle, Things Will Fall Apart

2018-05-13

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SUBSCRIBE for Latest on FINANCIAL CRISIS / OIL PRICE / PETROL/ GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE / DOLLAR COLLAPSE / GOLD / SILVER / BITCOIN / ETHERIUM / CRYPTOCURRENCY / LITECOIN /FINANCIAL CRASH / GLOBAL RESET / NEW WORLD ORDER / ECONOMIC COLLAPSE / DAVOS 2018

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How Safe Are We? Our Blindness to Systemic Dangers

2018-05-13

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2018-05-13

United States Drug Overdose Deaths, 2000 - 2018
How do we explain our obsession with relatively low risk dangers and our collective blindness to manufactured/marketed scourges that kill tens of thousands of people annually? If you've bought a new vehicle recently, you may have noticed some "safety features" that strike many as Nanny State over-reach. You can't change radio stations, for example, if the vehicle is in reverse.

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Use Logic, The Deal, We Are At The End Of The Economic Cycle:Charles Hugh Smith

2018-05-12

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Today’s Guest: Charles Hugh Smith Websites: Of Two Minds http://www.oftwominds.com Most of artwork that are included with these videos have been created by X22 Report and they are used as a representation of the subject matter. The representative artwork included with these videos shall not be construed as the actual events that are taking place. …

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What China’s Trade Conditions Say About The Right Side Of ‘L’

2018-05-12

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2018-05-12

China Exports, Jan 2008 - Apr 2018
Chinese exports rose 12.9% year-over-year in April 2018. Imports were up 20.9%. As always, both numbers sound impressive but they are far short of rates consistent with a growing global economy. China’s participation in global growth, synchronized or not, is a must. The lack of acceleration on the export side tells us a lot about what to expect on the import side.

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Watching Imports

2018-05-11

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2018-05-11

US Trade Balance, Jan 2014 - May 2018
The US trade deficit, a sensitive political topic these days, declined sharply in March. It had expanded significantly (more deficit) in January and February, reaching nearly -$76 billion (seasonally adjusted) in the latter month, before posting -$68 billion in the latest figures. Exports rose while imports fell in March, making for the largest single month change in the trade condition in many years.

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What Really Happened In Europe

2018-05-10

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2018-05-10

Europe Real Gross Domestic Product, Jan 1995 - May 2018
The primary example of globally synchronized growth has been Europe. Nowhere has more hope been attached to shifting fortunes. The Continent, buoyed by the persistence of central bankers like Mario Draghi, has not just accelerated it is actually booming. Or so they say.

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Ireland: divided by abortion | The Economist

2018-05-09

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Abortion is banned in Ireland in almost all circumstances, including rape and incest. On May 25th voters will have their say in a referendum that could repeal the ban. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2FEY1tD Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: https://econ.st/2FE3sJB …

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Bi-Weekly Economic Review: Oil, Interest Rates & Economic Growth

2018-05-09

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2018-05-09

Economic Growth and Investment
The yield on the 10 year Treasury note briefly surpassed the supposedly important 3% barrier and then….nothing. So, maybe, contrary to all the commentary that placed such importance on that level, it was just another line on a chart and the bond bear market fear mongering told us a lot about the commentators and not a lot about the market or the economy.

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Emerging Markets Preview: The Week Ahead

2018-05-08

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2018-05-08

EM FX came under intense selling pressures last week. The worst performers were ARS, TRY, and MXN while the best were PHP, KRW, and TWD. US rates are likely to remain the key driver for EM FX, and so PPI and CPI data will be closely watched this week. We believe EM FX will remain under pressure.

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Emerging Markets: What Changed

2018-05-07

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2018-05-07

Bank Indonesia is taking measures to stabilize the local bond market. The Philippine central bank is tilting more hawkish. Czech National Bank cut its inflation forecasts. The Turkish government is loosening fiscal policy to drum up popular support. S&P downgraded Turkey to BB- with stable outlook. Argentina officials are taking significant measures to support the peso. Brazil central bank made a subtle shift in its FX intervention strategy.

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Taking the Pulse of a Weakening Economy

2018-05-05

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2018-05-05

Global Central Bank Security Purchases, 2009 - 2018
Corporate buybacks provide the key analogy for the economy as a whole. Central banks have been running a grand experiment for 9 years, and now we're about to find out if it succeeds or fails. For 9 unprecedented years, central banks have pushed the pedal of monetary stimulus to the metal: near-zero interest rates, monumental purchases of bonds, mortgage-backed securities, stocks and corporate bonds.

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Was Karl Marx right? | The Economist

2018-05-04

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Karl Marx remains surprisingly relevant 200 years after his birth. He rightly predicted some of the pitfalls of capitalism, but his solution was far worse than the disease. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2FEY1tD Daily Watch: mind-stretching short films throughout the working week. For more from Economist Films visit: https://econ.st/2FE3sJB Check …

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