Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Monetary U-Turn: When Will the Fed Start Easing Again? Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting Q1 2019

2019-03-10

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2019-03-10

Trey Reik
On occasion of its Q1 meeting in late January, the Incrementum Advisory Board was joined by special guest Trey Reik, the lead portfolio manager of the Sprott Institutional Gold & Precious Metal Strategy at Sprott USA since 2015

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What If Politics Can’t Fix What’s Broken?

2019-03-09

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2019-03-09

Political Polarization Has Exploded Since 2000
This is the politics of decline and collapse. The unspoken assumption of the modern era is that politics can fix whatever is broken: whatever is broken in society or the economy can be fixed by some political policy or political process-- becoming more inclusionary, seeking non-partisan middle ground, etc.

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The new scramble for Africa | The Economist

2019-03-08

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The past decade has seen a big surge of foreign interest in Africa—involving China, India and Russia. If the continent handles this new “scramble” wisely, the main winners will be Africans themselves. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video …

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CHARLES HUGH SMITH: ELITE DUMBING DOWN MIDDLE-CLASS INTO DUST!

2019-03-08

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http://www.portfoliowealthglobal.com/Smith MUST-READ FOR INVESTORS: LP(S) – Attack LP(S) – Bear LP(S) – Drama Shelter your Portfolio from the Bonds COLLAPSE: http://www.PortfolioWealthGlobal.com/Bonds Get Immediate Access to our Exclusive Report on the Coming STOCK MARKET CRASH: http://www.portfoliowealthglobal.com/crash/ Download Our Top 5 Cryptocurrencies for 2018 AT: http://www.portfoliowealthglobal.com/top5/ The Gold Bull...

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Not Buying The New Stimulus

2019-03-08

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2019-03-08

ECB GDP Projections, March 2016 - 2019
What just happened in Europe? The short answer is T-LTRO. The ECB is getting back to being “accommodative” again. This isn’t what was supposed to be happening at this point in time. Quite the contrary, Europe’s central bank had been expecting to end all its programs and begin normalizing interest rates.

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Monthly Macro Chart Review – March

2019-03-08

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2019-03-08

Economic Growth and Investment
We’re changing the format on our Macro updates, breaking the report into two parts. This is part one, a review of the data released the previous month with charts to highlight the ones we deem important. We’ll post another one next week that will be more commentary and the market based indicators we use to monitor recession risk.

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What if women ruled the world? | The Economist

2019-03-07

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Only 6.3% of all international leaders are women. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, former Liberian president and Africa’s first elected female head of state, suggests ways to redress the balance. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The …

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Labor Shortage America has been Canceled

2019-03-07

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2019-03-07

U.S. Retail Sales, Jan 2007 - 2019
The holiday season was shaping up to be a good one, perhaps a very good one. All the signs seemed to be pointing in that direction, especially if you were a worker. All throughout last year, beginning partway through 2017, there wasn’t a day that went by without some mainstream story “reporting” on America’s labor shortage.

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Charles Hugh Smith On Debt & Demographics Leading To Government Crisis and Financial Repression

2019-03-07

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Click here for the full transcript: http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2019/03/01/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-debt-demographics-leading-to-government-crisis-and-financial-repression/

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China Has No Choice

2019-03-06

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2019-03-06

Chinese Money & Inflation 1997-2011
China’s central bank was given more independence to conduct monetary policies in late 2003. It had been operating under Order No. 46 of the President of the People’s Republic of China issued in March 1995, which led the 3rd Session of the Eighth National People’s Congress (China’s de facto legislature) to create and adopt the Law of the People’s Republic of China on the People’s Bank of China.

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The Fed’s “Wealth Effect” Has Enriched the Haves at the Expense of the Young

2019-03-05

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2019-03-05

Households and Nonprofit Organizations 1960-2018
The Fed is the mortal enemy of the young generations, and thus of the nation itself. The wealth effect" generated by rising stock and housing prices has long been a core goal of the Federal Reserve and other central banks. As Lance Roberts noted in his recent commentary So, The Fed Doesn't Target The Market, Eh?

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What Killed the Middle Class?

2019-03-04

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2019-03-04

Wages aren't keeping up
Rounding up the usual suspects won't restore a vibrant middle class. What killed the middle class? The answer may well echo an Agatha Christie mystery: rather than there being one guilty party, it may be that each of the suspects participated in the demise of the middle class.

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Meanwhile, Over In Asia

2019-03-02

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2019-03-02

Japan Industrial Production, SA 2008-2019
While Western markets breathed a sigh of relief that US GDP didn’t confirm the global slowdown, not yet, what was taking place over in Asia went in the other direction. There has been a sense, a wish perhaps, that if the global economy truly did hit a rough spot it would be limited to just the last three months of 2018. Hopefully Mario Draghi is on to something.

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India v Pakistan: the threat of nuclear war | The Economist

2019-03-01

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A recent terrorist attack has reignited the possibility of war between India and Pakistan—and this time both have nuclear weapons. Will the countries’ leaders, Narendra Modi and Imran Khan, allow the Kashmir conflict to escalate? Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The …

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The Doomsday Scenario for the Stock and Housing Bubbles

2019-03-01

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2019-03-01

SPX, weekly 1994 - 2019
It was always folly to believe that inflating asset bubbles could solve the structural problems of a post-industrial economy. The Doomsday Scenario for the stock and housing bubbles is simple: the Fed's magic fails. When dropping interest rates to zero and flooding the financial sector with loose money fail to ignite the economy and reflate the deflating bubbles, punters will realize the Fed's magic only worked the first three times: three bubbles...

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Mars: when will humans get there? | The Economist

2019-02-28

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Sending astronauts to Mars is a daunting prospect. But this will not deter NASA and private companies from trying to put humans on the red planet. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s full video catalogue: http://econ.st/20IehQk Like The Economist on …

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No Surprise, Hysteria Wasn’t a Sound Basis For Interpretation

2019-02-28

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2019-02-28

Labor Utilization Total Hours Worked 2008-2018
What gets them into trouble is how they just can’t help themselves. Go back one year, to early 2018. Last February it was all-but-assured (in mainstream coverage) that the US economy was going to take off. The bond market, meaning UST’s, was about to be massacred because the overheating boom would force a double shot down its throat.

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The Fate of Real Estate

2019-02-27

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2019-02-27

NAR Inventory of Homes For Sale, NSA 2014-2019
For years, realtors have been waiting for more housing inventory. It had become an article of faith, what was restraining a full-blown recovery was the lack of units available. The level of resales like construction was up, but still way, way less than it was now fourteen years past the prior peak despite sufficient population growth to have absorbed the previous bubble’s overbuilding.

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Now that Housing Bubble #2 Is Bursting…How Low Will It Go?

2019-02-26

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2019-02-26

Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index, 1990 - 2019
There are two generalities that can be applied to all asset bubbles: 1. Bubbles inflate for longer and reach higher levels than most pre-bubble analysts expected. 2. All bubbles burst, despite mantra-like claims that "this time it's different".

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Sinking Shippers Signal Global Goods Troubles

2019-02-24

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2019-02-24

US Treasury Yields 2007-2019
It infects every boardroom across the world. Big business requires decent forecasting, yet time and again it seems they are deprived of what they desperately need. Instead, even after this last decade, the world’s largest companies continue to be surprised by weakness that is far more prevalent than strength.

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