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Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Banks Or (euro)Dollars? That Is The (only) Question

2020-04-03

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2020-04-03

UST Yields & Money Alternates, 2007-2009
It used to be that at each quarter’s end the repo rate would rise often quite far. You may recall the end of 2018, following a wave of global liquidations and curve collapsing when the GC rate (UST) skyrocketed to 5.149%, nearly 300 bps above the RRP “floor.” Chalked up to nothing more than 2a7 or “too many” Treasuries, it was to be ignored as the Fed at that point was still forecasting inflation and rate hikes.

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Dollar Bid as Market Sentiment Worsens

2020-04-03

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2020-04-03

The virus news stream out of Europe has improved a bit. The US is already taking about the next relief bill; the Fed continues to roll out measures to address dollar funding issues. ADP and ISM manufacturing PMI are the US data highlights. Regulators across Europe are asking banks to stop paying dividends; eurozone and UK reported final manufacturing PMIs.

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The Wonderful Insanity of Globalization

2020-04-02

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2020-04-02

The Wonderful Efficiencies of Globalization
So here's an April Fools congrats to globalization's many fools. The tradition here at Of Two Minds is to make use of April Fool's Day for a bit of parody or satire, but I'm breaking with tradition and presenting something that is all too real but borders on parody: the wonderful insanity of globalization.

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Gadfly Public Interview: Charles Hugh Smith – Of Two Minds Blog

2020-04-01

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Start your FREE 30-day subscription today https://thegadfly.vhx.tv/ Visit and support Charles with his work: https://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

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Charles Hugh Smith on the Social, Financial and Economic Implications of the Coronavirus!

2020-04-01

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Charles Hugh Smith on the Social, Financial and Economic Implications of the Coronavirus! http://financialrepressionauthority.com/2020/04/01/the-roundtable-insight-charles-hugh-smith-on-the-social-financial-and-economic-implications-of-the-coronavirus/

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China’s Back!

2020-04-01

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2020-04-01

China PMI, 2005-2020
The Washington Post began this week by noting how the US economy seems to have lost its purported zip just when it needed that vitality the most. Never missing a chance to take a partisan swipe, of course, still there’s quite a lot of truth behind the charge. An actual economic boom produces cushion, enough of one that President Trump and his administration may have been counting on it when opting for full-blown shutdown.

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Sample Hour Live – Two Beers with Charles – Charles Hugh Smith

2020-04-01

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Multistreaming with https://restream.io/?ref=pKNQQ

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Covid-19: more questions about coronavirus, answered | The Economist

2020-03-31

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What has the world learned about the novel coronavirus and its knock-on effects on the global economy? Ed Carr, The Economist’s deputy editor, and Alok Jha, our science correspondent, answer more of your questions about the virus. Find all of The Economist’s coverage of covid-19 here: https://econ.st/33HyqOB Click here to subscribe to The Economist on …

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(No) Dollars And (No) Sense: Eighty Argentinas

2020-03-31

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2020-03-31

India Official Reserve Assets, 2016-2020
India like many emerging market countries around the world holds an enormous stockpile of foreign exchange reserves. According to the latest weekly calculation published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country’s central bank, that total was a bit less than half a trillion. While it sounds impressive, when the month began the balance was much closer to that mark.

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The End of Globalization & Financialization Leads To A New Monetary System – Charles Hugh Smith

2020-03-30

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Thanks for watching this RTD Q&A ft. Charles Hugh Smith. Share your thoughts in the comment section below. Subscribe & click the ? icon to be notified of the next livestream. Consider becoming a supporter of the RTD Channel. All gifts add up to make a difference. Thanks RTD Patreon (Monthly Support): https://www.patreon.com/rtd RTD Donation …

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Making Sense Eurodollar University Episode 2

2020-03-30

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Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investments, and Emil Kalinowski make sense of today's global monetary system.

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The New (Forced) Frugality

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

Personal Saving Rate, 1960-2020
There are only two ways to survive a decline in income and net worth: slash expenses or default on debt. In post-World War II America, the cultural zeitgeist viewed frugality as a choice: permanent economic growth and federal anti-poverty programs steadily reduced the number of people in deep economic hardship (i.e. forced frugality) and raised the living standards of those in hardship to the point that the majority of households could choose to be...

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

Markets continue to digest the implications of the Fed’s bazooka moment last week. The data highlight this week will be March jobs data Friday; key manufacturing sector data will come out earlier in the week. On Friday, BOC delivered an emergency 50 bp rate cut to 0.25% and started QE.

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It’s Not About Jobless Claims Today, It’s About What Will Hamper Job Growth In A Few Months

2020-03-29

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2020-03-29

Two Labor Stories, 1995-2019
You’ve no doubt heard about the jobless claims number. At an incomprehensible 3.28 million Americans filing for unemployment for the first time, this level far exceeded the wildest expectations as the economic costs of the shutdown continue to come in far more like the worst case. And as bad as 3mm is, the real hidden number is likely much higher.

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No Further Comment Necessary At This Point

2020-03-28

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2020-03-28

Primary Dealer Repo Fails (UST), 2017-2020
I would write something snarky about bank reserves, but why bother at this point? It’s already been said. If Jay Powell doesn’t mention collateral, no one else does even though it’s the whole ballgame right now. Note: FRBNY’s updated figures shown below are for last week.

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How noise pollution threatens ocean life | The Economist

2020-03-27

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Noise pollution has led to multiple whale-strandings and poses a threat to thousands of ocean creatures. Meet the scientist who is mapping ocean noise in a bid to dial down the volume. Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/

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ECB Approaching its Bazooka Moment

2020-03-27

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2020-03-27

ECB Balance Sheet Total Assets, 2010-2019
The ECB appears to be moving closer to activating Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT).  Despite being part of Draghi’s “whatever it takes” moment, OMT has never been used.  If the Fed’s open-ended QE is seen as dollar-negative, then OMT should be seen as euro-negative.

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The Pandemic Is Accelerating the Breakdown That Began a Decade Ago

2020-03-26

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2020-03-26

Personal Savings Rate, 1960-2020
The feedback loop has reversed: by saving more, people will spend, borrow and speculate less, draining the fuel from any broadbased expansion. In eras of confidence and certainty, people save less and spend more freely. 

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Three Short Run Factors Don’t Make A Long Run Difference

2020-03-25

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2020-03-25

US Treasury Curve, 2018-2020
There are three things the markets have going for them right now, and none of them have anything to do with the Federal Reserve. More and more conditions resemble the early thirties in that respect, meaning no respect for monetary powers. This isn’t to say we are repeating the Great Depression, only that the paths available to the system to use in order to climb out of this mess have similarly narrowed.

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Making Sense Eurodollar University Episode 1

2020-03-24

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Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research at Alhambra Investments, and Emil Kalinowski make sense of today's global monetary system.

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