by Jeffrey P. Snider
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I would write something snarky about bank reserves, but why bother at this point? It’s already been said. If Jay Powell doesn’t mention collateral, no one else does even though it’s the whole ballgame right now. Note: FRBNY’s updated figures shown below are for last week. |
Primary Dealer Repo Fails (UST), 2017-2020 - Click to enlarge |
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Weekly SNB Sight Deposits and Speculative Positions: SNB buying euros at high prices
2021-04-19
Update April 19 2021: SNB intervening. Sight Deposits have risen by +0.2 bn CHF, this means that the SNB is intervening and buying Euros and Dollars: The change is +0.2 bn. compared to last week.
Rechecking On Bill And His Newfound Followers
2021-04-09
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury has obtained some bids. Not long ago the certain harbinger of bond rout doom, the long end maybe has joined the rest of the world in its global pause if somewhat later than it had begun elsewhere (including, importantly, its own TIPS real yield backyard).
Three Things About Today’s UST Sell-off, Beginning With Fedwire
2021-02-28
Three relatively quick observations surrounding today’s UST selloff.1. The intensity. Reflation is the underlying short run basis, but there is ample reason to suspect quite a bit more than that alone given the unexpected interruption in Fedwire yesterday.
For The Dollar, Not How Much But How Long Therefore How Familiar
2021-02-24
Brazil’s stock market was rocked yesterday by politics. The country’s “populist” President, Jair Bolsonaro, said he was going to name an army general who had served with Bolsomito (a nickname given to him by supporters) during that country’s prior military dictatorship as CEO of state-owned oil giant Petróleo Brasileiro SA. Gen. Joaquim Silva e Luna is being installed, allegedly, to facilitate more direct control of the company by the federal government.With the economy still gripped by the latest recession, and oil prices rising worldwide as supplies continue to be squeezed, Brazilians have been caught in the vise between fuel prices and unemployment – pure misery for a nation still reeling from Euro$ #3’s (2014-16) crushing impacts. A depression for years before COVID…and now this.
What Might Be In *Another* Market-based Yield Curve Twist?
2021-02-23
With the UST yield curve currently undergoing its own market-based twist, it’s worth investigating a couple potential reasons for it. On the one hand, the long end, clear cut reflation: markets are not, as is commonly told right now, pricing 1979 Great Inflation #2, rather how the next few years may not be as bad (deflationary) as once thought a few months ago.
Two Seemingly Opposite Ends Of The Inflation Debate Come Together
2021-02-19
It’s worth taking a look at a couple of extremes, and the putting each into wider context of inflation/deflation. As you no doubt surmise, only one is receiving much mainstream attention. The other continues to be overshadowed by…anything else.
Inflation Hysteria #2 (Nominal UST)
2020-12-09
What had given Inflation Hysteria #1 its real punch had been the benchmark 10-year Treasury note. Throughout 2017, despite the unemployment rate in the US, globally synchronized growth being declared around the world (and being declared as some momentously significant development), and whatever other tiny factors acceding to the narrative, longer-term Treasury rates just weren’t buying it.
Just Who Is, And Who Is Not, Selling T-Bills
2020-11-29
Are foreigners selling Treasury bills? If they are, this would seem to merit consideration for the reflation argument. After all, the paramount monetary deficiency exposed by March’s GFC2 (and the Fed’s blatant role in making it worse) was the dangerous degree of shortage over the best collateral.
Tags: Bonds,collateral,currencies,economy,Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy,Markets,newsletter,repo fails,repo market,T-Bills,U.S. Treasuries
