China reopening, media rather than money blitz. Bank lending has been hyped though as usual the rest of the story – the important parts – get left out for the narrative. The reopening impulse just isn’t there, and we can verify that it isn’t just by doing the full money math.

What *was* behind the Fed’s aggressive hawkishness from just a couple weeks ago? A whole lot of bad assumptions. What *is* behind the Fed’s sudden conversion?

Soft landing fever has spread around the world. There are three major reasons why, from US labor stats to China reopening then the idea Europe survived a major scare. On that last one, did it? Latest data from there has gotten as ugly as market curves when predicting that very ugliness.

The FOMC meets again tomorrow and Wednesday to discuss policymakers’ views of economic conditions and risks. And they are all based on garbage. This garbage.

Jeff Snider is Chief Strategist for Atlas Financial and co-host of the popular Eurodollar University podcast.

Educate my audience about free market economics and the principles and benefits of individual liberty, limited government and sound money. These are America’s founding principles, guaranteed by the U.S.

Intel’s earnings and guidance were truly epic, for all the wrong reasons. Heed these big name warnings, which are only too consistent with market positions and increasingly economic data. They are all pointing us toward a near-term future which is likely to produce a lot of tears before it’s over.

US GDP data was solidly – recessionary. There’s no soft landing here; on the contrary it is following the established pattern. The economy isn’t rebounding, it is highly unstable in the same way as what happened just prior to previous recessions. Looking into the report’s details confirms the interpretation.

Government officials and politicians, even stock market “analysts”, these are the last people you want to depend on for useful macro analysis. What is dependable has been unmistakable if you haven’t been distracted.

The Treasury’s extraordinary measures to avoid breaching the debt ceiling includes winding down its TGA balance with the Fed. The unintended consequence is to raise the level of bank reserves at the same time the Fed is attempting to reduce them (QT).

Jeff Snider, Headmaster of Eurodollar University, joins the podcast to talk about the perverse complexities of the Eurodollar system. What even is a Eurodollar? Why was the system created?

We have big and growing economy problem on our hands, one that is confirmed more every passing day by ominous, persistently negative developments. Yet, when you examine a specific class of data, you see none of this.

What if the world’s most powerful institution is actually nearly powerless? If that was true, it wouldn’t sound any different from what came out of the mouth of its most famous leader. The truth has been blocked out even though the proof has been right there out in the open this entire time.

The ‘soft landing’ is on the table at NYSE. December payroll data kept the hope alive. But is it really? Growing weight of evidence – not to mention totally different interpretation of same across many other markets – strongly implies it isn’t.

The Dramatic Change In Consumer Behavior Sinks GDP Reverse – Gold #crypto #finance #ftx #economy

Educate my audience about free market economics and the principles and benefits of individual liberty, limited government and sound money. These are America’s founding principles, guaranteed by the U.S.

Chinese officials have changed course about the pandemic. Why? Rather than recent protests, there is almost certainly another reason even bigger than COVID. The U-turn coincides with a deeper mystery – of sorts – as to China’s biggest foe. And that’s not the United States.

You really, *really* need to understand what market curves are telling you – and why. To get the best sense, let’s go through the fundamentals, make what might seem a startling comparison, and then see if all that matches what we’re just now seeing come up in the data.

As if there aren’t enough suspects which could end the Fed’s rate hikes regime (more importantly represent serious threats to the economy and markets), now we have confirmed falling home prices to add to the already-toxic environment.

Hu Jintao wasn’t just Xi Jinping’s predecessor. Hu was a technocrat who represented a different method for pursuing the Chinese socialist agenda, one that shared more in common with the rest of the world.

A negative swap spread sounds like total nonsense – at first. But in a ledger money, fictive currency system what matters is the capacities of those who collectively keep track of the distributed ledger. This is where that nonsense isn’t just useful, it is extremely valuable. Swaps are the ledger and they are saying there is a very real and worsening problem on it. Global (euro)Dollar Shortage.

What do foreign UST buyers know that maybe American bond sellers don’t? The latter seem to care all about he Fed. The former are facing more obvious problems beginning with a massive global dollar shortage.

A negative swap spread sounds like total nonsense – at first. But in a ledger money, fictive currency system what matters is the capacities of those who collectively keep track of the distributed ledger. This is where that nonsense isn’t just useful, it is extremely valuable.

China, India, emerging markets. Suddenly the UK, but everyone incorrectly presumes the pound’s problems start in London. Well, they do, all of it does.

LIBOR was called a crime of the century when its real crime was exposing the truth. Money is eurodollars, not dollars. But in the guilty bureaucrats’ push to cover all this up by replacing LIBOR with SOFR, they refused to understand how SOFR is not a suitable alternative. Now it’s breaking down just the way authorities had been warned; at the worst possible time, too.

Sure, the pound is down but what’s going on with gilts? Like Walter White, the eurodollar isn’t some mild-mannered, middle-aged nothing wasting away with terminal cancer counting down the days, it is Heisenberg creating mayhem, causing destruction, and leaving behind heartache.

Several crucial thresholds were crossed in the week before the flash crash in Britain’s pound. China’s yuan and India’s rupee, two countries with vastly different situations yet both sinking in the same ($) boat along with New Zealanders and also the Brits.

A study by the Federal Reserve finds that quantitative tightening has a statistically significant effect on rates and yields. Too bad the effect is IMMATERIAL in the EXTREME! Also, same study notes that quantitative easing is similarly a big, ‘nothing burger’ (their words; ok, ok – my words).

A Financial Times opinion column avers not only is a “post-dollar world coming” but that it is “near” and that the “decline could last… longer”. We review the argument, disagree, and note no discussion of the global monetary order. Also, a prediction where the dollar is headed next.

In 2000 and 2006 the inversion of future 2-year rates and current 2-year rates correctly predicted when the Fed would stop hiking rates. Of course, the Fed had no idea it would stop — markets knew it though. Where is the future 2-year rate relative today? An eyelash from inversion.

Global Financial Crisis Jeff Snider Indian ruppee. India #jeffsnider#treasurybills#economy#useconomy