Category Archive: 5) Global Macro

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Market Huddle Episode 41: Harry McLovin (guest: Charles Hugh Smith)

2019-08-17

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To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/ In episode #41, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Charles Hugh Smith to the show to talk about negative interest rates and Charles explains why the past is not a guide. Then more on the hot topic: GE fraud. Fast …

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Retail Sales’ Amazon Pick Up

2019-08-17

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2019-08-17

Retail Sales, NSA 2011-2019
The rules of interpretation that apply to the payroll reports also apply to other data series like retail sales. The monthly changes tend to be noisy. Even during the best of times there might be a month way off trend. On the other end, during the worst of times there will be the stray good month. What matters is the balance continuing in each direction – more of the good vs. more of the bad.

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Does this line predict America’s next recession? | The Economist

2019-08-16

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The yield curve has predicted America’s last eight recessions. In March this year it inverted again. So what does it mean for America? Read more about how the yield curve helps predict economic growth here: https://econ.st/2N3fT98 Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy This graph makes a lot of people nervous. Why? …

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US Industrial Downturn: What If Oil and Inventory Join It?

2019-08-16

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2019-08-16

Industrial Production, NSA 2006-2019
Revised estimates from the Federal Reserve are beginning to suggest another area for concern in the US economy. There hadn’t really been all that much supply side capex activity taking place to begin with. Despite the idea of an economic boom in 2017, businesses across the whole economy just hadn’t been building like there was one nor in anticipation of one.

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Charles Hugh Smith Parallels Between The Decline of the Roman Empire and America

2019-08-15

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Here’s an excellent analysis for any history enthusiast on the comparison between the Roman empire in decline and the American empire.

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The Path Clear For More Rate Cuts, If You Like That Sort of Thing

2019-08-15

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2019-08-15

U.S. Gasoline Stocks, 2012-2019
If you like rate cuts and think they are powerful tools to help manage a soft patch, then there was good news in two international oil reports over the last week. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its forecast for global demand growth for the seventh straight month. On Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded its estimates for the third time in four months.

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Hong Kong protests: what’s at stake for China? | The Economist

2019-08-14

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The Hong Kong protests are the most serious challenge to China’s authority since the Tiananmen Square massacre. Read more about the Hong Kong protests here: https://econ.st/2YKYdWV Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy This protester calls himself “Bruce”. We’ve hidden his face and obscured his voice to protect his identity. He’s one …

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Why You Should Care Germany More and More Looks Like 2009

2019-08-14

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2019-08-14

Germany ZEW Financial Market Survey, 2006-2019
What if Germany’s economy falls into recession? Unlike, say, Argentina, you can’t so easily dismiss German struggles as an exclusive product of German factors. One of the most orderly and efficient systems in Europe and all the world, when Germany begins to struggle it raises immediate questions about everywhere else.

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Developed market equities update: a fairly reassuring reporting season

2019-08-13

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2019-08-13

August’s Equity Sell-off’s Magnitude Looks Like May’s, but was Much More Rapid
There is an ongoing tug-of-war between trade tensions and fundamentals Due to renewed trade tensions, the S&P 500 corrected by 6.0% and the Stoxx Europe 600 by 5.8% from the late July peak to the 5 August low. Because the pullback was clustered around just a few days, its intensity was reminiscent of the worst market days of past major crises.

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The Internal War in the Deep State Claims Its High Profile Casualty: Jeffrey Epstein

2019-08-12

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2019-08-12

The "traditionalist" Neocons are going to have to decide to fish or cut bait. I've been writing about the fracturing Deep State for the past five years: The conflict has now reached the hot-war stage where bodies are turning up, explained away by the usual laughable covers: "suicide," "accident" and "heart attack." That Jeffrey Epstein's death in a secure cell is being labeled "suicide" tells us quite a lot about the desperation of the faction...

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The Myth of CNY DOWN = STIMULUS Won’t Die

2019-08-11

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2019-08-11

China Exports, 2006-2019
On the one hand, it’s a small silver lining in how many even in the mainstream are beginning to realize that there really is something wrong. Then again, they are using “trade wars” to make sense of how that could be. For the one, at least they’ve stopped saying China’s economy is strong and always looks resilient no matter what data comes out.

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The US labels China a currency manipulator

2019-08-10

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2019-08-10

USD/CNY Spot Rate, 2000-2019
The near-term impact will likely be limited but this is a clear negative for trade negotiations.Shortly after the renminbi’s sharp depreciation on Monday, the US Treasury Department labelled China a currency manipulator. This is the first time in 25 years that the US government has designated a country as a currency manipulator.According to the US Treasury Department, the decision was triggered by the perceived lack of action by the PBoC to resist...

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Currency update – the Chinese renminbi

2019-08-09

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2019-08-09

Growth in Japanese Exports and ISM Business New Orders Index, 2011-2019
Despite the CNY's recent fall, we believe the People's Bank of China will refrain from competitive devaluationFollowing US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a new 10% tariff on USD300 billion of Chinese goods, the Chinese renminbi (rmb) weakened sharply and breached CNY7.00 per USD.

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The Gulag of the Mind

2019-08-08

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2019-08-08

Befuddled and blind, we wander toward the cliff without even seeing it, focusing on our little screens of entertainment and self-absorption. There are no physical barriers in the Gulag of the Mind--we imprison ourselves, and love our servitude. Indeed, we fear the world outside our internalized gulag, because we've absorbed the narrative that the gulag is secure and permanent.

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BoJ stays put amid economic headwinds

2019-08-07

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2019-08-07

Growth in Japanese Exports and ISM Business New Orders Index, 2011-2019
Japan's central bank has little room for further easing despite a downbeat outlook.At its monetary policy meeting on 30 July, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged, as expected. The decision came as the Japanese economy faces strong external headwinds and a downbeat outlook for domestic demand.

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Nothing Is Guaranteed

2019-08-06

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2019-08-06

S&P 500 Everything Bubble, 2000-2018
There are no guarantees, no matter how monumental the hubris and confidence. The American lifestyle and economy depend on a vast number of implicit guarantees-- systemic forms of entitlement that we implicitly feel are our birthright. Chief among these implicit entitlements is the Federal Reserve can always "save the day": the Fed has the tools to escape either an inflationary spiral or a deflationary collapse.

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Charles Hugh Smith ? Economic Collapse Confirmed! – The Collapse of the American Empire?

2019-08-03

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Charles Hugh Smith ? Economic Collapse Confirmed! – The Collapse of the American Empire? Charles Hugh Smith ? Economic Collapse Confirmed! – The Collapse of the American Empire? ——————————————————————————————————— ? Subscribe To...

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Why are music festivals so expensive? | The Economist

2019-08-03

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Today there are festivals in more parts of the world than ever before–and ticket prices are higher than ever before. Why are festivals so expensive? Read more about how big stars maximise their take from tours here: https://econ.st/30ktI6U Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ …

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How will quantum computing change the world? | The Economist

2019-08-01

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The potential for quantum computing to crack other countries’ encrypted networks has captured the attention of national governments. Which of the world’s fundamental challenges could be solved by quantum computing? Read more here: https://econ.st/2Zpildp Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy For more from Economist Films visit: http://films.economist.com/ Check out The Economist’s …

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Charles Hugh Smith – The American Empire Will Fall In 2019

2019-08-01

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