Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Great Graphic: WSJ survey of Fed Expectations

2016-04-07

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2016-04-07

This Great Graphic shows the results of the last three Wall Street Journal survey of business and academic economists on the outlook for Fed policy. The key take away is that despite all the talk and ink spilled on the shifting Fed stance and the split within the FOMC, economists views did not change much … Continue...

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FX Daily, April 7: Yen Continues to Climb

2016-04-07

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2016-04-07

The main feature in the foreign exchange market continues to be the surge of the Japanese yen.  A convincing explanation of the yen's strength seems elusive.  Until last week, which means through the fiscal year-end last month, Japanese fund managers have been buying foreign bonds at a near-record pace.  Foreign investors, for their part, have …

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Great Graphic: Head and Shoulders in Dollar-Yen

2016-04-06

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2016-04-06

The old head and shoulders pattern in the dollar against the yen is back in vogue.  We first pointed it out in the first week of January here. Recall the details.  The neckline is drawn around JPY116.30 and measuring objective is near JPY107.00....

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FOMC meeting minutes to be released. What levels are in play for the EURUSD?

2016-04-06

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What level are in play through the Fed Meeting Minutes

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Dutch Referendum: Devil is not in the Details

2016-04-06

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2016-04-06

In what is possibly one of the under-appreciated political events of the year, the Netherlands holds a plebiscite today on an associational agreement with Ukraine that has already been approved by the Dutch parliament, the European Parliament and all other 27 EU members.   When stated so baldly, it is difficult to see what is at …

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FX Daily, April 6: Greenback Finds A Little Traction

2016-04-06

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2016-04-06

The US dollar is better bid today but remains largely in the ranges seen in recent days.  There a few developments to note, which together are lifting European equities after Asian equities softened.   First, the API oil inventory estimate showed an unexpected fall of 4.3 mln barrels.  An increase of half the magnitude was expected.  The …

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Talk of Secret Shanghai Agreement is a Distraction

2016-04-05

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2016-04-05

(I have been sick with pneumonia but am just about back.  I expect to resume my commentary tomorrow.  Here is my overdue monthly column for a Chinese paper.   Thanks to everyone for their support.) Conspiracy theories have run amok.  After sev...

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Forex VIDEO: USDJPY tests support area near 111.00 level

2016-04-04

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Will the pair bottom like it has in the past, or break on through? The USDJPY is trading near session lows and also moves closer to what is key support from a technical perspective between 110.96 and 111.03. Why is that level so important? Watch the video and understand why.

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FOREX Trading Education Video: How I prepare and look to trade the US employment reports

2016-03-31

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On the first Friday of the month (most months that is), the US employment report will be released. Many traders think it is the best day to trade because the market will move. Yippee I look at the employment report as more of a gamble because risk will be at a sky high elevated level. …

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Forex Video: GBPUSD trading above the “Line in the Sand”. What does that mean?

2016-03-30

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Forex Educational Video: The GBPUSD is trading above a “Line in the Sand” that I – well, “the market” – has defined. A “Line in the Sand” helps to define “Bullish above/Bearish below” trading bias. In this video I discuss the GBPUSD line in the sand and why I think it is important going forward.

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EURUSD surges after Yellen’s dovish comments (March 29, 2016)

2016-03-29

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The EURUSD has surged higher after Chair Yellen’s more dovish comments. The move higher has the pair moving towards a fairly strong trend line resistance target. Can the sellers keep a lid on it, or push through the target. We should test it in the new trading day. What about support? Where should traders find …

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Great Graphic: Bottom Building on CRB Commodity Index?

2016-03-28

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2016-03-28

Marc Chandler shows that after the commodity currency Canadian Dollar, also the CRB Commodity index could have found a bottom. See here his Great Graphic on the CAD bottom buildung. See also the CAD resilience despite falling oil prices.

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NZDUSD corrects higher in trading today but runs into resistance_March 28, 2016

2016-03-28

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The NZDUSD has been moving to the downside over the prior 6 or so trading days. Today is a different story with the price correcting higher. Is the selling over or was this just a corrective move that has shaken out a few shorts? The technical levels are telling the story. In this video, Greg …

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Four Keys to The Week Ahead

2016-03-27

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2016-03-27

There are four events that will shape market psychology in the week ahead.  They are Yellen's speech to the NY Economic Club, US jobs data, eurozone March CPI and PMI, and Japan's Tankan Survey.   The broad backdrop is characterized by the rebuilding of risk appetites since the middle of February, though the MSCI emerging market … Continue reading...

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Weekly Speculative Position: Yen Longs Near Record Levels

2016-03-26

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2016-03-26

The most extreme speculative positioning, judging from the futures market is the long yen position.  The bulls added another 3.4k contracts, lifting the gross long position to 82.8k contracts.  The record was set in 2008 at 94.7k contracts.   The gross short position was trimmed by 4.5k contracts, leaving 29.5k.  It is the smallest gross short position …

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FX Review Week March 21- March 25

2016-03-26

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2016-03-26

The US dollar rose against all the major and most emerging market currencies last week. After selling off following the ECB and FOMC meetings, the dollar found better traction.  It was helped by widening interest rate differentials.  Regional Fed manufacturing surveys for March suggest the quarter is ending on a firm note.  With new orders rising, …

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Great Graphic: Has the Canadian Dollar Bottomed Out?

2016-03-24

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2016-03-24

We have been looking for a bottom in the US dollar against the Canadian dollar.  It is been difficult, but now it appears that the technicals are turning.  This Great Graphic, from Bloomberg, shows that the US dollar is moving above a trend line...

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Is that Buzzing Sound Helicopter Money?

2016-03-24

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2016-03-24

Helicopter money is the rage.  Central banks are talking about it.  Economists are debating it.  The media is rife with coverage.     While it sounds important, it is not precisely clear what helicopter money means. It appears to have originated with Milton Friedman.  In 1969, he wrote: "Let us suppose now that one day a helicopter … Continue reading »

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ECB, Corporate Bonds, and Credibility

2016-03-23

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2016-03-23

The euro's rallied shortly after the ECB announced numerous monetary measures that in their totality were more than expected.  Many saw this as proof that monetary policy had lost its effectiveness, and central banks have lost credibility.    R...

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