Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.

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Greece and the Return of the Repressed

2017-02-15

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-15

Don't expect a deal between Greece and its official creditors until late spring or early summer. Grexit is still not a particularly likely scenario. It was the European governments not Greece which put other taxpayers' skin in the game.

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FX Daily, February 14: Markets Showing Little Love on Valentines

2017-02-14

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-14

Corrective pressures are gripping the major capital markets today.The Dollar Index's nine-day advancing streak is being threatened by the position adjustment ahead of Yellen's testimony later today. Despite record high closes in the main US equity markets yesterday, Asia could not follow suit. It tried to initially, and recorded new highs since July 2015, but sellers emerged and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed marginally lower on the lows of the...

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What is Good for the Dollar is Bad for Gold

2017-02-14

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-14

The Dollar Index is powering ahead, moving higher for the eighth consecutive session. Over the past 100 sessions, gold and the Dollar Index move in the opposite direction more than 90% of the time. The technical condition of gold is deteriorating.

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FX Daily, February 13: Quiet Start of Busy Week

2017-02-13

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-13

With inflation and growth reports due out this week and Federal Reserve Chair Yellen's testimony before Congress, it promises to be a busy week for investors. However, the week has begun off fairly quietly, while the recent rally in equities continues.

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New Book: Political Economy of Tomorrow

2017-02-13

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-13

My new book,Political Economy of Tomorrowhas just been published, and it is available onAmazon. The book is not so much of a sequel to my first book,Making Sense of the Dollar. There is very little about the foreign exchange market in the new book. However, it is not wholly new cloth either.

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Weekly Speculative Position: Speculators are long all currencies of the dollar bloc

2017-02-13

by George Dorgan

2017-02-13

Speculators are net short CHF with 14.6K contracts against USD. This is less than the 17K last week.

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FX Weekly Preview: Yellen’s Path Cleared by Trump’s Moderation

2017-02-13

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-13

Trump has moderated in several areas, he is being checked in others, and less impactful in others. This will underscore the focus on Yellen's testimony this week. At same time, many will be reluctant to short the dollar ahead of the tax reform plans that may be unveiled in Trump's upcoming speech to Congress.

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FX Weekly Review, February 06 – 11: Further Dollar and CHF Strength versus Euro weakness ahead?

2017-02-12

by George Dorgan

2017-02-12

Swiss Franc Index Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc

We are expecting a further strengthening of both dollar and Swiss Franc against the euro over the next 3 months. Reason is the rising Swiss demand the continued dovishness of the ECB, despite rising inflation.

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Fake News. Fake Breaks. What do they have in common? How to deal with them?

2017-02-12

by Forexlive

When I hear the word “fake:, I cannot help but think of “fake news”. Fake news has become so pervasive, I combat it by waiting for the dust to settle, fact checking and making logical judgments. In trading there are a number of times when you will get a fake break. Coincidentally, I deal with …

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FX Traders Have To (Re)Learn A New Skill

2017-02-11

by Tyler Durden

2017-02-11

China Trade Balance with United States, April 2016-January 2017

Dear FX traders: forget the dot plot, and prepare to learn a new - or to some forgotten - skill: how to read trade flows. As Bloomberg's Vincent Cignarella and Andrea Wong point out, currency traders accustomed to analyzing the Fed’s dot plot and monthly U.S. jobs figures to predict the direction of the world's reserve currency are having to learn, or in some cases re-learn, a largely forgotten ability: how to scrutinize trade data. With...

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FX Daily, February 10: US Dollar Holding on to Week’s Gains

2017-02-10

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-10

The US dollar is about 12 hours away from gaining against all the major currencies this week. The main talking points today remain Trump-centric. The US dollar is mixed as European trading gets underway. Of note the dollar is continuing to gain on the yen. The yen is off 0.4%, which is nearly half the week's decline. The Aussie is the strongest on the day, up about 0.2% to trim the week's loss to about 0.45%.

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Cool Video: Bearish Case for Euro and Prospect of Currency Wars

2017-02-10

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-10

Still in London as this part of the business trip is winding down. I had the privilege of going over to the Bloomberg office today and spoke with Vonnie Quinn and Mark Burton about the euro's outlook and whether the US should have a strong or weak dollar.

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Trump’s New Dollar Policy

2017-02-09

by Forexlive

Adam Button at ForexLive talks about a generational change in US currency policy and what it could mean if Trump abandons the strong dollar policy. What are the forex trades if it happens? When could we expect it?

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FX Daily, February 09: Dollar Bounce in Asia is Sold in the European Morning

2017-02-09

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-09

The US dollar is firmer against most of the major currencies in fairly quiet Asian turnover, but is seeing those gains pared in early Europe. The highlights include the RBNZ meeting that left rates on hold, as widely expected. The concern about the strength of the Kiwi saw the market reduce the perceived likelihood of a rate hike. NZD came off.

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Is a Strong or Weak Dollar Good for the US? The $16 trillion Question

2017-02-09

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-09

Dollar movement helps some economic interest and hurts others. From a strategic point of view, the best thing for the US is the market-generated rate. It was an important achievement that the forex market was de-weaponized. Many observers have been crying wolf about a currency war for many years, which may have de-sensitized investors to the threat of a real one.

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Cool Video: Around the World with Katie Martin of the Financial Times

2017-02-09

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-09

I am in London as part of a larger business trip. I had the chance today to talk to Katie Martin, who runs Fast FT and is often writing about foreign exchange. They show was live on Facebook. It is about a 22 minute interview and although foreign exchange is the key issue, to get to it we end up talking about many things, including US interest rates, Trump, and even cooking frogs.

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FX Daily, February 08: EUR/CHF down to 1.630, Swiss Boom Starting?

2017-02-08

by George Dorgan

2017-02-08

The reader might have seen the latest Swiss Consumer Sentiment and the UBS consumption indicator. They suggest that the Swiss boom phase should finally come. I anticipated the boom already in my slides for the CFA Society. The Swiss boom was postponed when the SNB decided to remove the euro peg in early 2015.

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Largest Retail FX Broker FXCM Banned By CFTC, Fined $7 Million For Taking Positions Against Clients

2017-02-08

by Tyler Durden

2017-02-08

The CFTC on Monday fined Forex Capital Markets, parent FXCM Holdings LLC and founding partners Dror Niv and William Ahdout to pay $7 million to settle charges it defrauded retail foreign exchange customers and engaging in false and misleading solicitations. As part of the settlement, FXCM agreed to withdraw its registration and never seek to register with the CFTC again, effectively banning it from operating in the US.

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Great Graphic: Interesting Sterling Price Action

2017-02-08

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-08

Sterling is having an interesting day. It fell in the face of the US dollar's bounce but has recovered fully. It has not yet traded above yesterday's high (~$1.2510) but it may. It does appear to be tracing out a hammer in Japanese candle stick terms.

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The Dollar: Real or Nominal Rates?

2017-02-06

by Marc Chandler

2017-02-06

Real interest rates are nominal rates adjusted for inflation expectations.Inflation expectations are tricky to measure. The Federal Reserve identifies two broad metrics. There are surveys, like the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey, and the Fed conducts a regular survey of professional forecasters. There are also market-based measures, like the breakevens, which compare the conventional yield to the inflation-linked, or protected...

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