Category Archive: 4) FX Trends

Main Author Marc Chandler
Marc Chandler
He has been covering the global capital markets in one fashion or another for more than 30 years, working at economic consulting firms and global investment banks. After 14 years as the global head of currency strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman, Chandler joined Bannockburn Global Forex, as a managing partner and chief markets strategist as of October 1, 2018.
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Romanticizing the Gig

2016-11-08

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2016-11-08

Humanostrich
Gigs are part of the new lexicon for a long existing phenomenon. It is largely but not solely a capital offensive to lower labor input costs. There may be short-run advantages but long-term challenges from the growth of the gig or contingent workforce.

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FX Daily, November 08: Consolidation Featured as Market Catches and Holds Breath

2016-11-08

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2016-11-08

FX Performance, November 08 2016 Movers and Shakers
The equity markets snapped their losing streak yesterday and are consolidating today. The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The euro and sterling are slightly firmer, but well within yesterday's ranges. The dollar-bloc is a bit lower, and once again the Australian dollar is struggling to sustain moves above $0.7700.

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FX Daily, November 07: Dollar Stabilizing After Bounce

2016-11-07

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2016-11-07

FX Performance, November 07 2016 Movers and Shakers
The DAX also gapped lower before the weekend and gapped higher today. It is stalling just ahead of the earlier gap from last week (10460-10508). It is up about 1.6% in late-morning turnover. The strongest sector is the financials, up 2.5%, with the banks up 3.4%. Deutsche Bank is snapping a five-session drop. It fell 9.1% last week. It has recouped more than half of that today.

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FX Weekly Preview: The US Election is The Driver in the Week Ahead

2016-11-06

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2016-11-06

Economic Events: Eurozone, Week November 07
Neither the Mexican peso's performance nor the fed funds futures seem to show that investors think the election is very close. Not all poll analysis showed what the Financial Times called "knife-edge". None of the poll analysis showed Trump winning, and many appear to have stabilized over the last couple of days.

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FX Weekly Review, October 31 – November 04: Dollar at Crossroads

2016-11-06

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2016-11-06

Trade-weighted index Swiss Franc, November 04, 2016
Swiss Franc Currency Index As visible in the graph, the Swiss Franc index recovered most of its losses against the US Dollar Index for the last 30 days. In the last 30 days, both the USD currency index and the CHF currency index have had a positive performance.

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Carney’s Tenure: Brief Thoughts

2016-11-05

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2016-11-05

Marc Carney Bank of England
Not only is Carney not resigning, but he agreed to stay a year longer than initially agreed. He will stay for the two years that Brexit is negotiated. Sterling rallied, but did not challenge last week's highs.

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FOMC Says Little New, December Hike Remains Likely Scenario

2016-11-05

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2016-11-05

FOMC
Fed does not expand much on Sept. statement. Bar to December hike seems low. There were two rather than three dissents.

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Weekly Speculative Positions: Rising Net Short Euro and CHF, but Stronger Euro and CHF

2016-11-05

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2016-11-05

The weekly speculative position shows increasing short positions on the euro and on the Swiss Franc. On the other side, both currencies have appreciated, what they should not do if net short positions increase. This implies that there is real money, .e.g in the form of cash, bonds, stocks or real estate that is invested in the euro area or in Switzerland. For Switzerland, we will see this in the weekly sight deposits.

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Sterling High Court Decision on Parliament’s Right to Vote on Brexit

2016-11-05

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2016-11-05

pound
The UK High Court defends Parliament's right to vote before Article 50 is triggered. The decision will be appealed. Sterling approached an important resistance as it extended its rally for the fifth session.

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FX Daily, November 04: US Jobs Figures: Another Time the Swiss Franc Strengthens

2016-11-04

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2016-11-04

FX Performance, November 03 2016
With the not convincing U.S. jobs number, both the EUR and, in particular, the Swiss Franc could improve. With continuing political uncertainty in the U.S., more speculators closed their short CHF positions

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Did Carney Really Open the Door to a Rate Hike?

2016-11-04

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2016-11-04

Huh?
Sterling's recovery began before today and went through technical levels that accelerated the advance. The interest rate market did not change sufficiently to indicate a change in policy expectations. The High Court decision will be appealed.

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US Jobs Data Maintains Fed Hike Expectations

2016-11-04

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2016-11-04

Honey mooners
US jobs data was largely in line or better than expected. The stronger earnings growth may be more important than the headline. Canada's data was mostly disappointing.

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FX Daily, November 03: Political Angst Drives Markets

2016-11-03

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2016-11-03

FX Performance, November 03 2016 Movers and Shakers
GBP/CHF rates are trading below 1.20 on the exchange, providing those clients holding CHF with some of the best rates they’ve seen in the past six years. The Pounds woes have been well documented but with a key day of economic data releases ahead, is it all about to change?

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US Political Anxiety Stems Bond Sell-Off

2016-11-03

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2016-11-03

Yield
Bond yields have been rising in the US and Europe since the summer. There are some country-specific considerations and some generalized factors. Anxiety over US politics has helped bonds recover some lost ground.

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FX Daily, November 02: Standpat FOMC Trumped by US Political Jitters

2016-11-02

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2016-11-02

FX Performance, November 02 2016 Movers and Shakers
The single biggest driver in the capital markets is the continued narrowing of the US election polls. The prospect of a Trump presidency and the dramatic changes that could entail is rattling investors and spurring position squaring.The dollar is broadly lower as are stocks. The surge in global yields has been arrested.

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EC Pushes Back on (8) Draft Budgets

2016-11-02

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2016-11-02

Coloseum
Long before the UK referendum, many argued that monetary union was undermining the European Union. Many had expected Greece to be forced out not once but twice. There is a cottage industry of books forecasting the demise of EMU.

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Great Graphic: Sentix Shows a Shift

2016-11-02

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2016-11-02

Sentix Euro Break-up Index: Greece and Italy
The risk that the eurozone implodes over the next year has risen, but is still modest. Italy has surpassed Greece as the most likely candidate. The December referendum is the second part of Renzi's political reforms.

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FX Daily, November 01: Dollar and Yen Slip in Quiet even if Eventful Turnover

2016-11-01

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2016-11-01

FX Performance, November 01 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is posting minor losses against most of the major currencies today.The Japanese yen is the exception, as the greenback continues to straddle JPY105. There have been several developments today, and the US also has a full economic calendar today. The most important of the developments was the upbeat message from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

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FX Daily, October 31: Respite for Market Nerves Lifts Peso, Rand, and US Dollar

2016-10-31

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2016-10-31

FX Performance, October 31 2016 Movers and Shakers
he latest US political news before roiled thin pre-weekend markets, but cooler heads and more of them are prevailing today. Trump's fortune in the polls had bottomed prior to the re-opening of the investigation into Clinton's emails and the national polls have narrowed.

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Are Foreign Investors Done Selling Japanese Equities?

2016-10-31

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2016-10-31

Foreign investors have sold more than JPY8 trillion of Japanese equities through September. Nikkei technicals have improved and the yen has softened. Foreign investors have been net buyers for the past four weeks.

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