Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

FX Weekly Preview: Unfinished Business

2018-11-19

by

2018-11-19

Often, and apparently wrongly attributed to Mark Twain is the observation that it is not what we know that gets into trouble, but "what we know that just ain't so." Now though, investors suffer from a different problem. Several processes are in motion, and there is little confidence in their outcomes. Among these are Brexit, US-China trade, the trajectory of Fed policy, and the EC's efforts to enforce the agreed-upon budget rules.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 16: Turning Brexit into a Dog’s Breakfast

2018-11-16

by

2018-11-16

Overview: It is the height of irony or tragedy that what was offered as a non-binding referendum on UK's membership in the European Union to bring the country, or at least the Tory Party, together is the most destabilizing event since the UK unceremoniously quit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism more than a quarter of a century ago. 

Read More »

FX Daily, November 15: UK Political Drama Roils Sterling

2018-11-15

by

2018-11-15

Overview: The resignation of the UK's Brexit negotiator after Prime Minister May had secured support from a majority of the cabinet sent sterling sharply lower.  Raab's resignation underscores the difficulty the Brexit agreement faces in the UK Parliament.  Sterling was hammered nearly 2.5 cents on the news and trade below $1.28.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 14: Dollar Comes Back After Yesterday’s Profit-Taking

2018-11-14

by

2018-11-14

Overview:  Investors are on pins and needles today.  Oil prices are trying to stabilize after WTI's outsized 7% fall yesterday, its largest in three years.  Global equities are heavier, dragged down by energy, but also larger than expected Q3 contractions in Japan and Germany, and a mixed bag of Chinese data that showed possible stabilization of the industrial sector though weaker consumption. 

Read More »

Cool Video: Euro Pressured Lower

2018-11-14

by

2018-11-14

As a long-term dollar bull, I was happy to accept Bloomberg TV's invite to come to the set on the day that the Dollar Index made new highs for the year and the euro punched through the $1.1300 support that has held since mid-August.  

Read More »

FX Daily, November 13: Weak Turn-Around Tuesday

2018-11-13

by

2018-11-13

Overview:  The US dollar has a heavier bias against most of the major and emerging markets currencies, but the pullback is shallow, and the greenback's underlying strength is still evident.  Asian equities were mixed.  Concern that Apple may be reducing orders weighed on suppliers, but news that China and US trade talks are resuming boosted sentiment, allowing Chinese stocks to recover helped lift the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Read More »

Cool Video: Fox Biz TV Broad Economic Discussion

2018-11-13

by

2018-11-13

I joined Charles Payne on Fox Business TV for a broad economic discussion today.  Payne, like many, are concerned that the Fed continues to tighten and worries this is going to end the business cycle.  He also argued that the strong dollar was a significant threat of US multinational earnings.

Read More »

Italy’s a Low-Grade Fever Not a Crisis for EU, Strategist Chandler Says

2018-11-12

by

Nov.12 — Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, looks at issues impacting the euro and his expectations for the Italian budget. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”

Read More »

FX Daily, November 12: Sterling’s Losses Lead Dollar Rally

2018-11-12

by

2018-11-12

Overview: The US dollar is enjoying broad gains against most major and emerging market currencies. Sterling, dragged down by Brexit concerns, is leading the way. With today's losses, sterling has shed nearly 3.7 cents over the last four sessions. The euro, for its part, is at a new 17-month low (~$1.1250). 

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: DOTS in the Week Ahead: Divergence, Oil, Trade and Stocks

2018-11-12

by

2018-11-12

The Federal Reserve's confidence in the economy and its need to continue to gradually increase interest rates stands in sharp contrast to most of the other major central banks. The European Central Bank will finish its asset purchases at the end of the year, but it is in no position to begin to normalize interest rates. Indeed, the risk is that it may feel compelled to off another Targeted Long-Term Repo, which would, in effect, allow the borrowers...

Read More »

The Future is Already Here–It is Just Not Evenly Distributed

2018-11-11

by

2018-11-11

When William Gibson would say that "the future is already here-it is just not evenly distributed," he was referring to how wealth and location determine one's access to technological advances (the future). Yet it equally can apply to the US-Chinese relationship.

Read More »

Fed Sticks To Script, Enjoys the Sweet Spot

2018-11-10

by

2018-11-10

The Federal Reserve kept policy on hold, and its sparse statement gave little clue as to what it makes of the pressures in the money markets or the weakness in the housing market.  The effective Fed funds rate is bumping against the cap provided by the interest rate on reserves.  Some repo rates, like SOFR (the intended replacement for LIBOR), have on occasion poked above what should be the ceiling.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 09: Greenback Stabilizes at Higher Levels

2018-11-09

by

2018-11-09

The US dollar's gains scored in the wake of the Fed's signal that will continue on course to gradually hike rates have been extended. Most emerging market currencies are lower as well.  Equity markets are heavy.  Bond yields in Europe and US are a little lower, with the exception of Italian bonds. 

Read More »

FX Daily, November 07: Equities and Bonds Jump While the Dollar Slumps

2018-11-07

by

2018-11-07

The dollar has fallen against nearly every currency. It had been moving lower at the start of the week, but what seems like a correction broadened and deepened following the US midterm election. The outcome was largely in line with expectations for the Republicans to hold the Senate and the Democrats to take a majority of the House for the first time since 2010.

Read More »

Euro and Yen Outlook

2018-11-07

by

2018-11-07

Broadly speaking, the risk is that the dollar's cyclical advance is not complete. The drivers will likely remain in place through at least the middle of next year. Additional gradual interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and a favorable policy mix underpin the dollar.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 6: US Goes to the Polls

2018-11-06

by

2018-11-06

Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies today, largely consolidating its recent losses. Equities are mixed.  In Asia, Japan, Australia, and Hong Kong equities gained around 1%, while most other bourses were softer.  In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed in late morning turnover.

Read More »

Talking Turkey

2018-11-06

by

2018-11-06

Turkey’s economic challenges arise from the imbalances created during the economic boom that saw poverty halved between 2002 and 2011, extensive urbanization, and integration in the world economy through trade and capital flows. The dramatic economic changes saw the rise of Erdogan, who was re-elected as President for a second term in June. His party (AKP) is joined by the Nationalists (MHP).

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Stocks, Trade, and the Fed in the Week Ahead

2018-11-05

by

2018-11-05

Last month's downdraft in equities spooked investors. The fear that is often expressed is that the end of the business cycle may coincide with the end of a credit cycle and a return to 2008-2009 crisis. It seems like an increasing number of economists agree with the sentiment expressed by President Trump that the Fed is too aggressive.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 01: Dollar Slumps to Start New Month

2018-11-01

by

2018-11-01

Overview: It appears that month-end considerations deterred the dollar selling that the technical indicators warned was coming and as the new month starts, the dollar is offered. It is weaker against all the major currencies and most of the emerging market currencies.

Read More »

Cheat Sheet

2018-11-01

by

2018-11-01

Jobs data ahead of the weekend should recover after a storm depressed the September jobs growth. The base effect will allow earnings to show a strong year-over-year gain. The FOMC meets next week. A 25 bp rate hike in December remains the most likely scenario despite the heightened volatility in the stock market.

Read More »