Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Daily, November 6: US Goes to the Polls

2018-11-06

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2018-11-06

Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies today, largely consolidating its recent losses. Equities are mixed.  In Asia, Japan, Australia, and Hong Kong equities gained around 1%, while most other bourses were softer.  In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is little changed in late morning turnover.

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Talking Turkey

2018-11-06

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2018-11-06

Turkey’s economic challenges arise from the imbalances created during the economic boom that saw poverty halved between 2002 and 2011, extensive urbanization, and integration in the world economy through trade and capital flows. The dramatic economic changes saw the rise of Erdogan, who was re-elected as President for a second term in June. His party (AKP) is joined by the Nationalists (MHP).

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FX Weekly Preview: Stocks, Trade, and the Fed in the Week Ahead

2018-11-05

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2018-11-05

Last month's downdraft in equities spooked investors. The fear that is often expressed is that the end of the business cycle may coincide with the end of a credit cycle and a return to 2008-2009 crisis. It seems like an increasing number of economists agree with the sentiment expressed by President Trump that the Fed is too aggressive.

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FX Daily, November 01: Dollar Slumps to Start New Month

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

Overview: It appears that month-end considerations deterred the dollar selling that the technical indicators warned was coming and as the new month starts, the dollar is offered. It is weaker against all the major currencies and most of the emerging market currencies.

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Cheat Sheet

2018-11-01

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2018-11-01

Jobs data ahead of the weekend should recover after a storm depressed the September jobs growth. The base effect will allow earnings to show a strong year-over-year gain. The FOMC meets next week. A 25 bp rate hike in December remains the most likely scenario despite the heightened volatility in the stock market.

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FX Daily, October 31: No Fright on This Halloween

2018-10-31

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2018-10-31

After sliding hard this month, equities continue to stabilize into month-end. All of the equity markets in Asia-Pacific rallied with the help of a solid close in the US. European bourses are higher too as the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 tries to extend the recovery for a third consecutive session, led by energy, materials, and information technology.

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FX Daily, October 30: Another Attempt to Put a Bottom in Stocks

2018-10-30

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2018-10-30

Overview: First, reports suggested that if China refused to make any trade concessions, the Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the G20 meeting next month would not take the issue up.  Fair enough.  Then, new reports indicated that the White was prepared to take additional trade measures if there was no agreement between Trump and Xi. 

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FX Daily, October 29: Market Awaits US Leadership

2018-10-29

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2018-10-29

The Dollar index is trading within last Friday's trading ranges. The year's high, set on August 15, was just shy of 97.00. The euro continues to straddle the $1.14 level but is spending more time in Europe below there. There is a 1.5 bln euro option expiring today at $1.1350 and an almost 600 mln euro option at $1.1400 that will be cut.

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FX Weekly Preview: Thumbnail Sketch of Six Things to Monitor This Week

2018-10-29

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2018-10-29

Global equities have sold off hard. The magnitude of the recent loss is similar to what happened earlier this year. The MSCI World Index of developed countries fell 10.5% in January-February carnage and are now off about 11% this month. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has matched the 11% loss back at the start of the year, but never truly recovering in between.

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FX Daily, October 25: ECB Overshadowed by Equity Market Drama

2018-10-25

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2018-10-25

The Dollar Index broke above 96.00 yesterday and is consolidating today. Provided the 96.00 area holds, the next target is the year's high near 97.00. The euro has been confined to a little more than a quarter of a cent. Players seem reluctant to sell it below $1.14 and note there is a 570 mln euro option at $1.1420 that expires today.

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FX Daily, October 24: Disappointing Flash PMI Weighs on Euro

2018-10-24

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2018-10-24

The US dollar is firmer against the major currencies and most emerging market currencies.  While the seemingly fragile equity markets are still the center of investors' attention, the weakness of the eurozone flash PMI is disconcerting and has sent the euro closer to $1.14.  China's officials continue to unveil initiatives to minimize the disruption of the equity and debt markets while seemingly adding to moral hazard risks. 

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Europe Challenged

2018-10-24

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2018-10-24

Europe is in an untenable position. It is being challenged on many fronts. A weaker euro need not result, but it is the path of least resistance. The economy has lost its momentum. What was first written off as a soft patch, now looks a bit more serious.

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FX Daily, October 23: Stock Slump Pushes Yields Lower and Buoys Yen

2018-10-23

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2018-10-23

There is one main story today, and that is the resumption of the slide in equities. It is having a ripple effect through the capital markets. Bond yields are tumbling. Gold is firm. The dollar is narrowly mixed, though the yen stands out with almost a 0.5% gain. Most of the large equity markets in Asia, including Japan, China, Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan were off mostly 2%-3%.

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Cool Video: Bloomberg Discussion of Late US Cycle

2018-10-23

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2018-10-23

An assessment of the US economy is an important input into the expectations of the dollar's behavior in the foreign exchange market. As a currency strategist, my views of the US economy are often subsumed in discussions or talked about indirectly by talking about Fed policy.  However, in this clip with Alix Steel and David Westin, I have an opportunity to sketch outlook for the US economy.

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2019 Slowdown Will Force Fed to Pause, Chandler Says

2018-10-22

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Oct.22 — Marc Chandler, chief market strategist and managing partner at Bannockburn Global Forex, discusses the potential for a U.S. recession and looks at the Federal Reserve’s rate path. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”

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FX Daily, October 22: Collective Sigh of Relief?

2018-10-22

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2018-10-22

After a slow start in Asia, the US dollar has turned better bid. The euro recovered from $1.1430 before the weekend to $1.1550 today, where an option for almost 525 mln euros expires today. There is another option (1.6 bln euros) at $1.1500 that also expires today.

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FX Weekly Preview: What Can Bite You This Week?

2018-10-22

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2018-10-22

Several major central banks will meet next week, including the European Central Bank, but it is only the Bank of Canada that is expected to hike rates. The flash PMIs and the first official estimate of Q3 US GDP are among the data highlights. Beyond the events and data, the volatility from global equity markets from Shanghai to New York will continue to have a strong influence on other capital markets.

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FX Daily, October 18: China’s Angst Stays Local

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Asian equities were lower, led by a nearly 3% drop in Shanghai, while European shares shrugged it off and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up about 0.4% in late morning turnover. The S&P 500 is off by about 0.25%. Global bond yields were dragged higher by US Treasuries where the 10-year yield is straddling 3.20% after rising four basis points yesterday.

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Brexit: Five FAQs

2018-10-18

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2018-10-18

Brexit
The UK voted in s referendum to leave the EU in June 2016. It will happen at the end of March 2019. What is the status of the negotiations? It had been hoped that the two sides would be close enough to allow a special summit to be called next month to finalize an agreement.

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FX Daily, October 17: Greenback is Little Changed While Stocks Recover

2018-10-17

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2018-10-17

Led by a dramatic recovery in US stocks, global equities are moving higher today. Before last week, decline, the US stock market lacked breadth, but not only did the S&P 500 and NASDAQ post their biggest advance in several months, but the small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 had their best day in a couple of years.

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