Category Archive: 4.) Marc to Market

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FX Daily, August 28: Monday’s Dollar Blues

2017-08-28

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2017-08-28

The US dollar's pre-weekend losses were extended initially in Asia before it recovered sufficiently to give European participant a better selling level. The dollar selling into the shallow bounce reflects the bearish sentiment, which as we see it, was simply fanned by both Yellen and Draghi did not alter the status quo in their Jackson Hole speeches.

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FX Weekly Preview: Three Drivers in the Week Ahead

2017-08-28

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2017-08-28

EMU preliminary August CPI headline rise may not translate into core. US jobs growth is fine; earnings growth is key. Trump's coalition is fraying, and the weekend pardon will not help mend fences.

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Great Graphic: Home Ownership and Measuring Inflation

2017-08-27

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2017-08-27

Home ownership varies throughout the EU but is overall near US levels. Germany has the lowest home ownership, and Spain has the most.  Italy has the least amount of mortgages. US include owner equivalent rents in CPI, the EU does not.

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Great Graphic: Small Caps and the Trump Trade

2017-08-26

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2017-08-26

The Russell 2000, which tracks the 2000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000, is threatening to turn positive for the year. It had turned negative in the second half of last week. Many pundits saw its decline and the penetration of the 200-day moving average for the first time in over a year as a sign of an impending down move in the broader equity market.

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FX Daily, August 25: Is the Janet and Mario Show a New Episode or Rerun?

2017-08-25

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2017-08-25

The event that investors have been waiting for and the media frequently linked to whatever price action has taken place has arrived: Yellen and Draghi's speeches later today. Yellen is first. She will speak at 10:00 am ET. This is toward the end of the European trading week. Draghi speaks late in the North American session--3:00 pm ET.

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How will Yellen Address Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy?

2017-08-25

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2017-08-25

Yellen has identified two challenges regarding the US labor market, the opioid epidemic and women participation in the labor force. The topic of the Jackson Hole gathering lends itself more to a discussion of these issues than the nuances of monetary policy. Dynamic world growth needs a dynamic US economy, and that requires more serious thinking about these socio-economic and political issues.

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FX Daily, August 24: Greenback Firmer in Becalmed Markets

2017-08-24

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2017-08-24

The US dollar is enjoying a firmer tone in quiet. Sterling is stabilizing after grinding down to its lowest level since late June. The Mexican peso, which had dropped in thin trading in Asia and Europe yesterday following Trump's threat to exit NAFTA and force Congress to fund the Wall or face a government shutdown recovered fully and is now slightly higher on the week.

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Euro Flirting with Near-Term Downtrend

2017-08-24

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2017-08-24

North American traders began the week by selling dollars. Euro is testing a downtrend off the year's high. DXY is testing its uptrend.

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FX Daily, August 23: Consolidation in Capital Markets Conceals Coming Turbulence

2017-08-23

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2017-08-23

A mixed US dollar will greet the North American participants today. It is softer against the euro and yen, but firmer against the dollar-bloc currencies. Among the emerging market currencies, the eastern and central European currencies are moving higher in the euro's draft.

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FX Daily, August 22: Turn Around Tuesday Sees Firmer Dollar, Rates, and Equities

2017-08-22

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2017-08-22

The US dollar has recouped most of yesterday's declines. However, as we have seen over the past couple of sessions, he North American market appears more dollar negative than Europe or Asia. The dollar's rise through the European morning has left the intraday technical indicators a bit stretched, warning that this short-term pattern continues today.

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FX Daily, August 21: Dollar Edges Higher, While Equities Trade Heavily to Start the New Week

2017-08-21

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2017-08-21

The US dollar is mostly firmer against most of the major and emerging market currencies. The main impetus appears to be some position adjustment emanating from equities. The equity markets turned south in the second half of last week and are moving lower today. Foreign investors appeared to have sold around $100 bln of European equities in 2016 and bought around a third back this year.

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FX Weekly Preview: Transitioning to a New Phase

2017-08-21

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2017-08-21

Jackson Hole marks the end of the investors' summer and a beginning of a challenging several weeks. The abandonment of national business leaders from Trump's advisory board and strong words by Republican Senator Corker, followed by the dismissal of the controversial Bannon, could be a turning point. Neither Yellen nor Draghi may not even address the current policy stance as they discuss the topic at hand, "Fostering Dynamic Global Economy", which...

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Markets Exaggerate, That is what They Do

2017-08-19

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2017-08-19

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FOMC minutes were not as dovish as spins suggest. ECB record was not as dovish as market response appears. Divergence is still intact.

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FX Daily, August 17: Euro Softens on Crosses, Treasuries Stabilize

2017-08-17

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2017-08-17

The US dollar had steadied after softening in the North American afternoon yesterday when the dissolution of President Trump's business councils as a series of executives stepped down.  The FOMC minutes added more fuel to the move. 

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Is the Yen or Swiss Franc a Better Funding Currency?

2017-08-17

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2017-08-17

Yen and Swiss franc are funding currencies. This goes a long way to explaining why they rally on heightened anxiety. The Swiss have lower rates than Japan and the franc is less volatile than the yen, but technicals argue for caution.

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FX Daily, August 16: Swiss Franc and Yen Improve after Dovish Draghi Comments

2017-08-16

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2017-08-16

Swiss Franc and Yen Improve after Dovish Draghi Comments, A return to the macroeconomic agenda is being deterred by new drama from Washington and reports suggesting that ECB's Draghi will not be discussing the central bank's monetary policy course at Jackson Hole confab, which will take place next week.

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FX Daily, August 15: Greenback Firms, Encouraged by Dudley and Ebbing of Tensions

2017-08-15

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2017-08-15

NY Fed President Dudley appears to have stolen any potential thunder in the July FOMC minutes that will be released tomorrow. While we put more emphasis on today's US retail sales data and the August Fed surveys, many others argued that the minutes were the key report this week.

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FX Daily, August 14: Sigh of Relief Weighs on Yen and Gold, while Lifting Equities and the Dollar

2017-08-14

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2017-08-14

The lack of new antagonisms over the weekend between the US and North Korea has prompted the markets to react accordingly. Already before the weekend, we detected some signs that at least some market participants had begun looking past the dramatic rhetoric.

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FX Weekly Preview: Synthetic FX View — Macro and Prices

2017-08-14

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2017-08-14

Economic data due out are unlikely to change macro views. Swiss franc's price action suggests some return to "normalcy" despite rhetoric remaining elevated. Sterling's 3.25 cent drop against the dollar looks over.

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