Category Archive: 4.) FX Theory

Main Author George Dorgan
George Dorgan
George Dorgan (penname) predicted the end of the EUR/CHF peg at the CFA Society and at many occasions on SeekingAlpha.com and on this blog. Several Swiss and international financial advisors support the site. These firms aim to deliver independent advice from the often misleading mainstream of banks and asset managers. George is FinTech entrepreneur, financial author and alternative economist. He speak seven languages fluently.

(5.1) FX Theory: The Trade Surplus and the Real Exchange Rate Mean Reversion

George Dorgan explains why currencies of countries with trade surpluses must appreciate over the long-term. Thanks to these surpluses, inflation and costs of companies rise more slowly than in other countries. In Forex a mean reversion does not exist, but only an inflation-adjusted reversion to the mean: a real exchange rate mean reversion or in short the "real mean reversion."

Read More »

(5.3) FX Theory: Penn Effect and Balassa Samuelson Effect

George Dorgan extends the previous discussion on trade surplus countries. Now he explains the Penn and the Balassa-Samuelson Effect. He applies these principles to Germany, to Greece and to Switzerland.

Read More »

(5.5) FX Theory: Currencies of Countries with High Economic Freedom, Immigration and Savings Must Appreciate

Economic freedom, immigration and high savings are main drivers for strong currencies. Switzerland, Singapore, Norway, Sweden and in the future even Germany are examples. Strangely most are in Europe.

Read More »

(6.2) The Ultimate Carry Trade: U.S. Banks Buying Treasuries



Read More »

(7) FX Theory: The Asset Market Model

The Asset Market Model implies that a currency will be in higher demand and should appreciate in value, if the flow of funds into financial market of the country such as equity and bonds markets increase.

Read More »

(8) Currency Wars: How to Push and Talk Down Your Currency?

Direct or indirect intervention is credible only in countries where domestic asset prices are undervalued and CPI/asset price inflation are no issues. Otherwise they create medium-term risks.

Read More »

(9) FX Theory: Wealth and Net International Investment Position

Availability of funds (wealth and the international investment position): One of the 5 key indicators for FX rates. Often currencies of countries with a a lot of funds appreciate when markets decline.

Read More »

(9.1) Net International Investment Position

A comparison of the net international investment position (NIIP) of several countries. We explain why asset valuation effects this position at the example of the United States.

Read More »

(8.1) Yen Weakness: Risk-Off Environment, Abenomics or Trade Deficit?

The yen overshot during and after the financial crisis. The USD/JPY fell from 120 in 2008 to lowest levels of 74, by 62%, but rose to 102 again. What are the reasons?

Read More »

(12) FX Rates, Contrarian Investments and the Misleading Concept Called GDP

We extended our existing post to contrarian investing. It was published on Seeking Alpha and awarded the Editor's Pick. Gross Domestic Product(ion) is (or has become) a measurement of activity and consumption, but not of capital accumulation and production. In many cases, GDP growth is negatively correlated to saving. Higher savings (aka austerity) leads to lower GDP growth today, but to higher GDP in the future. In its worst case, GDP growth...

Read More »

(14) Best Trading Tips

Read our contrarian insights: We provide regularly contrarian indications to technical Forex movements. Trade after work and do not look at markets during the day, third read scary facts about stops.

Read More »

(13.1) Is the Swedish Krona a Safe-Haven?

Arguments in favor of and against the Swedish Krona,as safe-haven during the euros crisis. Extracts from tradingfloor.com

Read More »

(10.1.1) Net International Investment Position United Kingdom

We discuss the net international investment position of the United Kingdom

Read More »