Category Archive: 8) Economics

Filter archive by: Show All Show only Articles Show only Videos

The Cost-Push Inflation Legend

cost push inflation, price level, real gdp

euro trade-weighted index vs ecb verbal and actual intervention

The concerted actions in September 2012 between the two big central banks reflected two fundamental economic principles: The Fed opted for Keynes' law, the ECB for Say's Law with conditionality. And apparently the ECB was successful.

Read More »

Ricardo’s Comparative Cost Theory, Heckscher-Ohlin Model and the Product Lifecycle Theory

Gold and FX Reserves US, Germany, Switzerland, UK, Japan 1950-1970 vs. German Gold

German, Swiss and Japanese gold reserves rose continously in the Bretton Woods system, whereas American and British reserves fell.

Read More »

History of Wrong Forecasts by Swiss and Fed Economists: Update September 2013

2013-09-19

by George Dorgan

2013-09-19

Or how to talk down and how to talk up an economy with wrong forecasts American and Swiss mentalities are very different, the Americans have the tendency not to care about the future a lot, the Swiss, however, do things only after careful consideration of potential risks. This tendency can be proven economically with … Continue reading...

Read More »

Quantitative Easing, its Indicators and the Swiss Franc, Update FOMC September 2013

2013-09-18

by George Dorgan

2013-09-18

The main drivers of demand for Swiss francs are the euro crisis, but even more, the behavior of American investors, who go out of the dollar in the fear of further bad US economic data and of Quantitative Easing. This will push down the dollar, and both safe-havens like the CHF, gold or the Japanese …

Read More »

Overlending and Global Imbalances in Current Accounts

Some extracts from BIS Working Papers No 419 Caveat creditor: The Bank for International Settlement stresses the importance of getting "overlending" under control.

Read More »

Why There Won’t Be A Strong Dollar, Even If The Financial Establishment Thinks So

Higher Rates, Consequences on Public Debt Japan US UK

In this second part of our series we provide arguments why the widely expected strong dollar period might not come. We look at the most important economic indicators that might justify a stronger dollar: the ISM manufacturing index and the interest rate differences between the U.S. and Europe.

Read More »

Strong Dollar: the Parallels Between Now, the 1980s and 1998-2002, Part 1: Austerity

2013-07-09

by George Dorgan

2013-07-09

Thailand South Korea Current Account Asia Crisis

We examine the relationship between strong dollar phases and austerity in other parts of the world. Between 1983 and 1985 one reason for the strong dollar were high real interest rates in the U.S. after the defeat of the Great Inflation period, the enforced austerity in Southern America and cheap commodity prices caused by generally …

Read More »