2026-04-24
Having just hit record highs following an historically impressive 13-day winning streak, stocks are susceptible to a pullback or, at a minimum, consolidation. Beyond the direction over the next week or two, the bigger question is what comes after that. The answer to the question will present itself over time. However, in the meantime, we …
Read More »2026-04-23
On Tuesday, Kevin Warsh appeared before the Senate for his nomination hearing for the Fed Chair. The biggest takeaway is Warsh’s desire to “reform” the Fed. Based on his appearance, reform seems to cover the following three areas: Regarding current monetary policy, Warsh believes inflation is lower than official indicators state. We have noted this …
Read More »2026-04-22
Our title above about Avis Budget Group (CAR) shares is a gross understatement. Since March 20th, CAR has risen nearly 500%, as we share below. While there are, and were, some favorable tailwinds driving the upward trend, such as rising used-car prices and elevated rental-car usage during the TSA-related problems, the most glaring factor is …
Read More »2026-04-21
Since the start of the year, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index (SOXX) is up 33% compared with the broader market, which is up only 4%. The primary rationale for the significant outperformance appears to be the insatiable demand for AI and a shift in its usage. Unlike the past couple of years, in which Nvidia …
Read More »2026-04-20
As shown in the graph below, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauges tells us that consumer confidence is now the worst its been since the survey began in 1952. Despite the confidence gauges being lower than during peak Covid shutdown, the GFC, and the 1970s oil crisis/inflation outbreak, the economy (GDP) and the employment …
Read More »2026-04-17
Allbirds, the sustainable sneaker company, has recently fallen on hard times, with revenue down by more than 50% from its peak. To help right the ship, Allbirds is rebranding itself as NewBird AI. Allbirds closed all of its U.S. stores and sold its intellectual property for $39 million.
Read More »2026-04-16
On Monday, our Commentary, The Market Knows What You Don’t, shared an important lesson about how markets function. The message was timely, as fear and volatility over the prior few weeks had caused great anxiety among many investors. We wrote the following to help investors maintain a north star during these challenging times: Market prices …
Read More »2026-04-15
Diana Choyleva wrote an excellent editorial for the Wall Street Journal entitled “The Iran War Is A Boon For The Petrodollar.” She pushes back against claims that the Iran conflict is accelerating the death of the petrodollar. Instead, she argues the opposite: between Iran and Venezuela, the U.S. is defending and bolstering dollar dominance in …
Read More »2026-04-13
A client and friend asked us a timely question: “Why did we remove our hedge position so quickly after the ceasefire, especially with little evidence it will hold?” The simple answer is the market knows more than all of us. Market prices are based on all available information. Some of the information is widely known, …
Read More »2026-04-10
On Wednesday, Delta Airlines announced it beat earnings expectations and, more importantly, its CEO maintained previous forward guidance despite the sharp increase in jet fuel prices. Delta CEO Ed Bastian cited a $2 billion quarterly fuel headwind caused by the conflict. While that added expense should weigh on earnings, Delta has a unique hedge that …
Read More »2026-04-09
Upon hearing of the ceasefire, oil prices plummeted by nearly 20%, and the stock market surged. In doing so, the S&P 500 broke well above resistance. Accordingly, the old resistance of the 200-day moving average (DMA) now becomes support. While no one knows whether the ceasefire will hold, the market is entering a seasonally favorable …
Read More »2026-04-08
Berkshire Hathaway now sits on $373 billion in Cash. They have enough to buy 480 companies in the S&P 500. For context, this is the largest cash stockpile since 2008. At that time, Berkshire used its cash not to buy stocks on the open market but largely to offer companies private deals that ordinary investors …
Read More »2026-04-07
While Investors remain fixated on the Iranian conflict and the extreme volatility of oil prices, a historic wave of AI-driven IPOs is quietly building in the background. When the geopolitical fog clears, AI-related IPOs may become an important market narrative for the remainder of the year. As an appetizer, Anthropic, the Claude maker founded by …
Read More »2026-04-06
As sentiment shifts from a Fed rate-cutting forecast to one that now sees a chance of a rate increase, a potentially powerful short squeeze setup might be emerging in the Treasury market. Heading into the Iran conflict, speculative short positions in TLT and Treasury futures were near historically elevated levels, reflecting a broad consensus that …
Read More »2026-04-02
Volume profiling provides unique insight into the profit-and-loss position of recent investors by identifying price levels at which significant buying and selling have occurred. Areas of high volume can act as powerful support and resistance levels because they represent prices at which a large number of investors have established positions and are therefore likely to …
Read More »2026-04-01
Dario Perkins of TS Lombard wrote a piece titled “How to Respond to Oil Shocks.” His analysis draws on the Fed’s history to address how it should respond to today’s oil shock. While researching Fed transcripts from the 1990 Gulf War, he discovered a proposal by Don Kohn, senior Fed staffer, that offers a solution …
Read More »2026-03-31
There seems to be widespread disbelief among gold investors, as gold prices have fallen by over 10% since the US and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28th. Many investors think that gold is a safe haven that should do its best during crisis periods, as we are in. This assumption fails to consider the …
Read More »2026-03-30
Expected and historical (realized) volatility are sending investors a puzzling signal. Because of the Iran conflict, intense oil price swings, and rising interest rates, the VIX, or implied volatility (what options markets are pricing in as future fear), is elevated. However, actual realized volatility has been much more subdued. That gap between the VIX and …
Read More »2026-03-27
Geopolitical events are among the most reliable drivers of bad investment decisions. When headlines are alarming, and markets are volatile, as they are today, investors instinctively overweight worst-case scenarios and underweight the likelihood that the situation resolves more quietly than feared. Behavioral finance calls this availability bias: the tendency to judge the likelihood of an …
Read More »2026-03-26
Albert Edwards from Societe Generale posted a graph similar to the one on the left below. It tracks the unemployment rate and its 3-year moving average. The red arrows signify every time the unemployment rate rose above the moving average. As we circle, the unemployment rate is now above the moving average. Albert’s comment alongside …
Read More »2026-03-25
Some media pundits are warning the public that high oil prices will spark a repeat of the high-inflation era of the 1970s. High oil prices will feed through to inflation; however, the economic, monetary policy, and geopolitical environments of the 1970s are quite different from today’s. To wit, consider the following reasons for inflation in …
Read More »2026-03-24
According to a recent analysis by the Wall Street Journal, corporate treasurers are fundamentally shifting how they approach the capital markets to navigate record-breaking supply. Rather than offering debt in monolithic blocks, firms are increasingly utilizing multiple corporate debt tranches to better manage investor demand. This strategic shift has pushed the average number of pieces …
Read More »2026-03-23
The Stone Ridge Alternative Lending Risk Premium Fund (LENDX) is the latest to face liquidity pressure amid growing concerns about private credit. As an interval fund, LENDX’s shares aren’t publicly traded, so investors who want out must tender their shares for repurchase by the fund quarterly. Last Thursday, the $2.4 billion fund told clients that …
Read More »2026-03-20
Many investors consider a 20% drawdown or more to be a bear market. Based solely on that definition, the table below, courtesy of Morgan Stanley, shows that 42%, or over 200 of the S&P 500 members, are in a bear market. For context, the S&P 500 is only down 4% from its 52-week record high, …
Read More »2026-03-19
Few Fed meetings in recent memory have presented the FOMC with a more uncomfortable set of competing signals than yesterday’s. The Iranian conflict and its impact on oil and oil-dependent product prices have created the potential for an inflationary impulse, yet higher oil prices would likely slow economic activity, leading to higher unemployment. As if …
Read More »2026-03-18
A client sent us the quote below from Michael Oliver of Momentum Structural Analysis and asked for our comments regarding gold and the growth of the M2 money supply: “…if you are taking profits in gold and putting that into cash Dollars, thinking that’s a good idea, then go to the St. Louis Fed’s site …
Read More »2026-03-17
When oil-related geopolitical risk flares up, most investors take their cue from oil prices. While energy prices are vital to monitor, far fewer investors track the telling price spread between Brent and WTI oil. West Texas Intermediate or WTI is the US domestic oil price benchmark, priced at Cushing, Oklahoma, and largely reflects North American …
Read More »2026-03-16
A recent Bloomberg article, “Microsoft, Meta Add to $700 Billion Surge in Data Center Leases,” reminds us that the massive growth in data centers will continue for the foreseeable future. However, it also warns that the massive investments in AI infrastructure by the largest AI companies exceed what their financial statements suggest. The article notes …
Read More »2026-03-13
The technology sector has been on edge in recent months, in part due to the evolving landscape of AI innovation funding. More specifically, equity investors of the largest AI companies are growing increasingly concerned because debt is being used more […] The post Amazon Debt: Great Demand Despite Concerns appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2026-03-12
The February CPI report was largely as expected. The month-over-month headline figure rose by 0.3%, bringing the year-over-year rate to 2.4%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by only 0.2%, dropping the annual rate to 2.5%, the lowest since […] The post Core CPI Lowest In 5 Years: Pre-Conflict Inflation Snapshot appeared first on …
Read More »2026-03-11
After Friday’s weak employment report, there was a rebirth of the once-dead argument for a rate cut at the Fed’s March meeting. Over the last six months, the economy has shed 6,000 jobs in aggregate, including three months in which […] The post Will Oil Prices Handcuff The Fed? appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2026-03-10
Rather than relying on Wall Street forecasts, scary headlines, and fear-mongering social media posts, the oil futures curve provides the collective judgment of future oil prices from the most informed and financially committed market participants — traders, producers, refiners, and […] The post The Oil Curve: Scary Headlines vs. Market Expectations appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2026-03-09
The Iran conflict has dominated the headlines, with the financial media primarily focusing on rising oil prices. While higher oil prices can certainly impact the economy, the dollar’s surge, which we hear little of, is an equally consequential market and […] The post The Dollar Not Oil Is The Real Story appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2026-03-06
Bloomberg writes: “Iran War Oil ShockThreatens to Unleash Wave of Global Inflation.” To be fair, the article is not as pessimistic as the title suggests. However, the fear that significantly higher, sustained oil prices will unleash a wave of inflation is gaining popularity and merits discussion. We start with math to address the historical relationship …
Read More »2026-03-05
Increasing corporate credit spreads, or a growing divergence between corporate bond yields and similar-maturity Treasury yields, can be an omen of stock market weakness. Recent troublesome defaults in the private credit markets are showing signs of spreading concern to the more liquid corporate debt markets. Thus, it’s appropriate to review corporate credit spreads. in the …
Read More »2026-03-04
The question for investors is how the Iranian conflict will affect the stock market. The markets’ initial reaction on Sunday was concern as the S&P 500 fell by over 1%, crude oil rose nearly 10%, and precious metals rallied. Within 12 hours, many of the substantial gains or losses, except oil, were reversed. However, stocks, …
Read More »2026-03-03
The heatmap below, courtesy of FinViz, shows the one-month performance of the S&P 500 financial sector stocks. As shown, Berkshire Hathaway and the insurance companies are higher over the period, while the large majority of the remaining financial sector stocks struggle. For context, the S&P 500 was down 2.80% over the same period. There appear …
Read More »2026-03-02
In our February 3rd Commentary, we discussed the recent woes negatively impacting private credit funds. The concerns began last year with the bankruptcies of Tricolor and First Brands and continue to mount, as evidenced by the share prices of some private credit managers shown below. Adding to market worries is fresh news of a $1.3 …
Read More »2026-02-27
Yet again, Nvidia delivers another incredible earnings report, reinforcing that the AI investment boom continues. As we show below, they posted annual revenue growth of of 73%, handily beating Wall Street forecasts. Most importantly, strong earnings and robust forward guidance confirm that their customers continue to aggressively expand AI infrastructure. Nvidia delivers the critical computing …
Read More »2026-02-26
In early November, we sounded the alarm about a recent Hindenburg Omen. Per the Commentary’s summary: Bottom line: market breadth is horrendous and will likely lead to a rotation favoring out-of-favor sectors and stocks. Thus, it’s not surprising that the Hindenburg Omen was triggered. If we continue to see more of these Omens, the threat …
Read More »2026-02-25
The housing market is experiencing a widening imbalance between homesellers and homebuyers, with listings rising faster than demand. This is contrary to the post-pandemic period of extremely tight inventory and strong demand. Homeowners with ultra-low mortgage rates who were initially hesitant to sell are now increasingly selling. As shown below, the housing market is shifting …
Read More »2026-02-24
To address the many emails we received, we present our take on the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling. First, President Trump has multiple ways he can implement trade restrictions beyond what the Supreme Court ruled against. In fact, he implemented a 150-day 15% global tariff after the court’s ruling. As we share below, the effective tariff …
Read More »2026-02-23
We have read a few articles expressing concern that the free cash flow for many of the Magnificent (Mag) 7 companies that are heavily involved in AI development and/or data center construction has leveled off. Furthermore, the hyperscalers, including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle, issued over $120 billion in debt last year. Additionally, Google just …
Read More »2026-02-20
In a recent white paper, The Risk Of Higher US Inflation In 2026, Adam Posen and Peter Orszag argue that inflation could exceed 4 percent by year’s end. To wit, they lead the article as follows: In our view, however, this optimism is premature. We think it is more likely that inflation will surprise to …
Read More »2026-02-19
Quite often, investors describe economic forecasts as a hard landing (recession), a soft landing (weak growth but no recession), or no landing (moderate to strong economic growth). As evidenced by the massive rotation toward economically sensitive sectors like industrials and materials and the significant underperformance of interest-rate-sensitive growth stocks, the no landing, or as it’s …
Read More »2026-02-18
Rather than focusing on valuation or fundamentals, momentum strategies use price behavior and relative performance to identify securities that are gaining or losing strength. One would think that, given the massive rotation trade and the resulting gaps in relative performance between various sectors and factors, momentum strategies would be doing well. While some such strategies …
Read More »2026-02-17
The dollar-debasement narrative is in full swing, as evidenced by the price of precious metals. However, one look at bitcoin, which should also rally on the debasement narrative, tells you something is amiss. We do not buy into the dollar-debasement narrative; instead, we believe much of the activity in gold and bitcoin is more closely …
Read More »2026-02-13
Google’s parent, Alphabet, just issued $32 billion in global debt, including £1 billion of rare century bonds. Alphabet’s century bonds are called such because they do not mature for 100 years (2126). While the century bond is a small piece of its recent debt offering and even less of its outstanding debt ($78 billion), the …
Read More »2026-02-12
Understanding Gold and Precious Metal Investments Exploring the Appeal of Precious Metals Investing in gold and other precious metals has long been regarded to preserve wealth and hedge against economic uncertainties. Discover the potential benefits and drawbacks of including these commodities in your investment strategy. The Role of Precious Metals in Diversification Adding precious metals …
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Exploring Investment Vehicles: An Overview Navigating the Investment Landscape Investing wisely requires a thorough understanding of various investment vehicles. Delve into the essentials of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds to make informed choices that align with your financial goals. The Role of Investment Vehicles Investment vehicles serve as the channels through which individuals can invest …
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Understanding High-Yield Bonds: An Overview Defining High-Yield Bonds High-yield bonds, also known as junk bonds, are debt securities issued by companies with lower credit ratings. These bonds offer higher interest rates compared to investment-grade bonds, but they come with their own set of benefits and risks. The Role of High-Yield Bonds High-yield bonds can play …
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Navigating the World of Bond Investing: A Comprehensive Guide The Importance of Informed Bond Investing Bond investing can be lucrative, but avoiding mistakes is crucial for maximizing returns and minimizing risks. Learn about the common pitfalls and how to steer clear of them. The Role of Bonds in Investment Portfolios Bonds offer stability and income, …
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Understanding Commodity ETFs: What You Need to Know Exploring the World of Commodity ETFs Commodity Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) offer investors exposure to a diverse range of commodities, such as precious metals, energy resources, agricultural products, and more. Learn how to navigate this investment option and incorporate it into your portfolio. Benefits of Investing in Commodity …
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An Introduction to Commodity Investments Understanding Commodity Investments Commodity investments involve putting money into raw materials or primary agricultural products that are typically traded on commodity markets. These investments offer exposure to the fluctuations in commodity prices, making them a unique and potentially rewarding addition to investment portfolios. Why Invest in Commodities? Commodities serve as …
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The delayed BLS employment report came in well above expectations, showing the economy added 130k jobs in January. Furthermore, the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% versus expectations of a 0.1% increase to 4.5%. The more encompassing U6 unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to 8.0%. The BLS labor report contradicts the monthly and weekly ADP reports, …
Read More »2026-02-11
The top graph below, courtesy of Bloomberg, shows that the price of TLT, the 20+ year Treasury bond ETF, has been drifting sideways for the last couple of years. Often, when a security trades in a tight range over an extended period, as we see with bonds currently, a breakout from the range can be …
Read More »2026-02-10
In a blog last week titled Japan Is Normalizing: Risks To The Yen Carry Trade, we discussed Japan’s path to economic normalization and how it might affect a great source of global liquidity, the yen carry trade. A week after publishing the article, Japan had a stunning election. As a result, its new Prime Minister, …
Read More »2026-02-09
As we wrote in yesterday’s Commentary, efficiently rotating between overbought and oversold sectors, factors, or stocks is a well-established method for outperforming markets. Like any strategy, the hard part is timing, or properly estimating when a pair of sectors, factors, or stocks is about to reverse their respective trends. Currently, there is a massive divergence …
Read More »2026-02-06
At the start of 2026, we introduced our Factor Rotation Model. The model summary below was posted in SimpleVisor: We launched a new model on January 2nd called the Factor Rotation Model. Historically, the performance of value and growth factors relative to the S&P 500 exhibits a strong negative correlation. Michael Lebowitz provided an overview …
Read More »2026-02-05
On Wednesday, Eli Lilly, the largest holding (15%) in XLV, the State Street healthcare sector ETF, reported earnings well above expectations, and its shares initially rose by 10%. Its fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $7.54 easily beat the consensus estimate of $6.98. Further boosting Eli Lilly shares, its revenue surged 43% to $19.29 billion, almost $1.5 …
Read More »2026-02-04
Over the last couple of weeks, we have shared evidence that supports the reflationary narrative and some that defies it. Today, we share the latest ISM Manufacturing data, which lends credence to the reflationary narrative. The ISM Manufacturing survey showed a big improvement in sentiment, as shown below. The gauge shot up 4.7 to 52.6, …
Read More »2026-02-03
Private credit funds were all the rage in 2024 and 2025 as institutional and high-net-worth retail investors sought more risk and higher returns. Over the last few months, that trend has started reversing. The FT reports that private credit investors pulled more than $7 billion from some of the biggest private credit funds in the …
Read More »2026-02-02
The wait is over, and President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to head the Federal Reserve. To better appreciate Warsh’s views on monetary policy and what they may entail for markets, we summarize a recent Wall Street Journal editorial he wrote, The Federal Reserve’s Broken Leadership. Our market-related thoughts are below the bullet points. From …
Read More »2026-01-30
On the heels of strong fourth-quarter earnings reports, Microsoft is opening down 8%, while Meta is trading up 10%. Microsoft topped expectations for earnings and revenues. However, there is some concern about its total cloud revenue. They reported cloud revenue of 26% versus expectations of 28-29%. That said, their leading cloud computing product, Azure, grew …
Read More »2026-01-29
Over the last year, energy stocks have traded well despite crude oil prices languishing. For instance, over the last six months, XLE, the energy ETF, has risen 14%, while crude oil prices have fallen by 12%. The two largest components of XLE, Exxon and Chevron, which account for 40% of the ETF, are up 30% …
Read More »2026-01-28
Bloomberg recently published “Wall Street Grapples With A New Risk: A European Buyers Strike.” The article notes that stock indexes in Europe, Japan, Canada, and South Korea are all beating US equities in both nominal and dollar terms. As a result, some European pension funds and other foreign buyers are trimming their exposure to US …
Read More »2026-01-27
On Monday, we discussed how the Truflation inflation gauge points to a sudden price decline, which clouds the reflation outlook. Today, we share recent consumer sentiment readings that counter the disinflation story and support the reflation narrative. On Friday, the University of Michigan reported that its consumer sentiment index improved in January to a five-month …
Read More »2026-01-26
With a 4.4% increase in economic growth in the third quarter and expectations that it could be higher in the fourth quarter, the so-called reflation narrative appears primed to dash out of the gates in 2026 at its current strong pace. The problem with assuming the reflation narrative will hold in 2026 is that it …
Read More »2026-01-23
Over the last few months, we have questioned the dollar debasement narrative. However, in this commentary, we suspend our views and assume that debasement is real and, further, that it fully explains why gold and silver are rising rapidly. The goal of this exercise is to use gold returns and math to find a fair …
Read More »2026-01-22
A Danish pension fund, Akademiker Pension, which manages roughly $25 billion in retirement assets for teachers, announced that it plans to sell all of its U.S. Treasury holdings by the end of January.
Read More »2026-01-21
It appears that President Trump wants Kevin Hassett to remain in his role at the White House. With the supposed frontrunner to replace Powell out of the running, the nomination now seems open to Kevin Warsh. As the graph below shows, Polymarket bettors are assigning 60% odds that Kevin Warsh will be nominated.
Read More »2026-01-20
Supporting the dollar-debasement narrative is the claim that money supply growth is out of control. For instance, we saw a post claiming “US money creation is happening at an alarming pace.” Specifically, he says the money supply increased by $1.65 trillion in 2025. Quoting the money supply, as he does, in absolute dollar terms is …
Read More »2026-01-16
Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials are increasingly discussing the weak yen as a source of inflation. Their concern is that prolonged yen weakness raises import costs and encourages businesses to pass those costs on to consumers. Bear in mind that […] The post A Weak Yen, The BOJ, And The Carry Trade appeared first on …
Read More »2026-01-15
“With the debt payment looming, time ran out.” That succinct summary ended a Wall Street Journal article titled: Saks Global Files for Bankruptcy, Undone by Debt and a Luxury Slump. A year ago, Saks Fifth Avenue’s parent company purchased its […] The post Luxury Slump Bankrupts Saks Fifth Avenue appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2026-01-14
Yesterday’s Commentary noted the recent strength in transportation stocks. For example, the transportation ETF (XTN) has outperformed the S&P 500 by more than 9% over the last 25 trading days. The leading stocks within the ETF over this period include. ARCB (trucking), MATX (shipping), WERN (freight shipping), and FedEx (shipping). Some of the recent gains …
Read More »2026-01-13
Over the weekend, Jerome Powell revealed that the Department of Justice (DOJ) has opened a criminal investigation into his June testimony to Congress regarding the roughly $2.5 billion renovation of Federal Reserve headquarters. The DOJ has served subpoenas to the Fed and threatened a criminal indictment relating to that testimony. Such action by the DOJ …
Read More »2026-01-12
President Trump is using Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help make housing more affordable. According to a TruthSocial post, the President claims Fannie and Freddie have a combined $200 billion in cash. Accordingly: I am instructing my Representatives (Fannie and Freddie) to buy $200 billion dollars In mortgage bonds. The hope is that increased …
Read More »2026-01-09
The JOLTs data released on Wednesday paint a picture of labor market stagnation. The graph below shows that the number of job openings has fallen to levels similar to those right before the pandemic. While the number of openings seems somewhat stable, layoffs are slowly increasing, while new hires are near a 15-year low. Similarly, …
Read More »2026-01-08
How Inflation Affects Your Investments & Ways to Protect Against It Inflation has a sneaky talent; it rarely arrives with fireworks. It shows up in the small stuff first. A higher grocery bill. A pricier dinner out. A “wait, when did flights get this expensive?” moment. Then, if it sticks around, it starts changing the …
Read More »2026-01-07
Yesterday’s Commentary discussed the potential impact of regime change in Venezuela on the energy sector. Today, we extend the analysis and examine other reasons for the invasion. The following theories are based on a Substack commentary from Tracy Shucart, an economist and resources trader. For starters, Tracy makes it clear that oil is not the …
Read More »2026-01-06
Tax‑Efficient Investing: Keep More of What You Earn Growing wealth is only part of the story. Keeping it, especially after taxes, is where strategy makes the biggest difference. For high-net-worth investors, tax drag can be a persistent leak in performance, especially when taxable income and capital gains stack up inside the wrong accounts. Tax-efficient investing …
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Venezuela holds 20% of the world’s proven oil reserves. Not only are they the largest, but as shown in the Statista graphic below, they hold approximately seven times that of the United States. Despite its large reserves, Venezuela has fallen well short of its ability to supply the world. US sanctions and the significant deterioration …
Read More »2026-01-05
Tesla EV deliveries totaled 1.64 million vehicles in 2025, leaving the company behind China’s BYD, which delivered more than 2.2 million EVs for the year. The result marks a second consecutive annual decline in Tesla EV deliveries, reinforcing the growing pressure on the company’s core automotive business. Fourth-quarter deliveries fell sharply year over year, underscoring …
Read More »2026-01-02
Nvidia’s explosive growth has created a new challenge: how to deploy an unprecedented amount of cash in a world where scale itself has become a regulatory constraint. The chart below, from The Wall Street Journal, illustrates Nvidia’s massive free cash flow growth. However, traditional uses of its cash, such as large acquisitions, are increasingly difficult …
Read More »2026-01-01
Navigating Market Volatility: Strategies for Confident Investing Market volatility has a way of feeling personal. One week your investment portfolio looks steady; the next it’s down, headlines are loud, and every conversation sounds like a prediction. That emotional whiplash is normal. Panic selling is what turns temporary price volatility into permanent damage. For high-net-worth families …
Read More »2025-12-31
YTD returns across major U.S. asset classes continue to reflect a highly concentrated market. The Finviz chart below does a nice job illustrating YTD returns across a wide array of futures contracts. Large-caps dominate YTD equity returns, while small- and mid-cap stocks lag amid tighter financial conditions and slower earnings growth. Outside of equities, YTD …
Read More »2025-12-30
Most Americans are paying higher electricity prices, and the pressure is unlikely to ease anytime soon. According to the Wall Street Journal, electricity prices have risen meaningfully across much of the country since 2022, and the drivers extend well beyond the frequently cited surge in data-center demand. While electricity prices had historically tracked inflation, that …
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Financial Planning in Your 50s: Building a Secure Retirement Your 50s can feel like a financial crossroads. Earnings are often strong, responsibilities are real, and time starts acting a little less patient. College may be on the horizon (or underway). Aging parents might need support. Work is busy, life is full, and retirement is no …
Read More »2025-12-29
GDP, released on Tuesday, showed that the economy grew by a larger-than-expected 4.3%. Powering the strong economic growth was personal consumption, which rose by 3.5%. Consumers are spending!. What’s unusual about that statement is that consumer sentiment remains historically weak. Typically, there is a strong correlation between personal consumption and consumer sentiment. As we share …
Read More »2025-12-25
Estate Planning Essentials: Protecting Your Legacy Estate planning has a reputation for being complicated, uncomfortable, and easy to delay. That’s a problem; when life moves fast, an outdated estate plan can create confusion, conflict, and unnecessary costs for the family members you care about most. Solid planning replaces guessing with clarity. If you have a …
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Benefits of Fee‑Only Financial Advisors: Why It Matters Navigating your financial future takes more than a few online calculators and a diversified portfolio. For high-net-worth families and business owners, the person you trust to manage your wealth carries significant influence over your outcomes. Yet not all financial advisors operate with the same incentives or responsibilities. …
Read More »2025-12-24
On Monday night, copper prices, as shown below, reached an all-time high of over $12,000 per metric ton. Copper is often referred to as “Doctor Copper” because it serves as a barometer of global economic activity. However, the current surge in prices is not due to sharply rising demand; tariffs and physical dislocation are heavily …
Read More »2025-12-23
Inflation in the European Union is nearing 2%, expected to dip below it in 2026 and 2027 and then settle at its 2% target thereafter. The ECB’s President Lagarde and other ECB members have recently stated that they are comfortable with the central bank’s current interest rate level. The markets are taking the ECB’s public …
Read More »2025-12-22
In 1850, Economist Frederic Bastiat famously wrote an essay entitled “That which is seen, and that which is not seen.” The first chapter, “The Broken Window,” argues that good economics requires considering not just the immediate, visible effects of an action but also the delayed, less obvious (unseen) consequences. Unfortunately, most commentators, when asked about …
Read More »2025-12-19
Blue Owl Capital spooked AI investors on Wednesday when the Financial Times reported that the firm, one of Oracle’s larger financing partners for major U.S. data centers, decided not to provide equity backing for a $10 billion data center Oracle is building in Michigan. This planned facility is part of Oracle’s collaboration with OpenAI under …
Read More »2025-12-18
According to Bloomberg, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been increasing the mortgages and mortgage-backed securities they hold on their own balance sheets. At their peak, before the financial crisis, Fannie and Freddie held a combined total of $1.6 trillion in mortgages. As we share below, courtesy of Bloomberg, their portfolio sizes are well below …
Read More »2025-12-17
Yesterday’s Commentary discussed Trump’s inclusion of Kevin Warsh in the race for Federal Reserve chair. Today, we compare some key differences between Kevin Warsh and Kevin Hassett. Understanding what each contributes to the Fed helps us better assess their effects on capital markets. Kevin Warsh was a Fed Governor from 2006 through 2011. We learned …
Read More »2025-12-16
Over the last few weeks, it seemed all but a done deal that Kevin Hassett would replace Jerome Powell as the next Fed Chair. That changed this past weekend as President Trump added Kevin Warsh alongside Hassett as his top Fed contenders. It’s likely that there are a couple of factors leading Trump to add …
Read More »2025-12-12
We received the following question from a client: “I was at a conference where they showed that roughly a third of the currently existing US Government debt is set to mature in the next few years. How can we pay it back?” A third of the approximately $30 trillion in US Treasury debt equates to …
Read More »2025-12-11
There is a growing divergence of views among FOMC members. Some remain dovish, favoring more rate cuts. Their argument is based on a belief that inflation will continue to move toward the 2% target and that the weakening labor market benefits from lower interest rates. On the other side of the aisle are hawkish views. …
Read More »2025-12-10
Based on comments from President Trump and the odds on the Kalshi betting site, shown below, Kevin Hassett is the likely nominee to replace Jerome Powell when his term as Fed Chair ends in May. While still half a year away, the market is beginning to price in what a Hassett leadership might mean for …
Read More »2025-12-09
A day doesn’t seem to go by without a market pundit asserting that Japan is in a monetary and fiscal death spiral. It’s easy to come to such a conclusion given: Based on those stats and others, it’s easy to see why many think it’s only a matter of time before Japan’s economic system collapses. …
Read More »2025-12-08
U.S. employers have announced over 1 million layoffs this year, the highest annual total since the pandemic-era collapse in 2020. November alone saw more than 71,000 layoffs announced, keeping pressure on sectors from technology to telecoms even as the equity market pushes higher. The post below, courtesy @KobeissiLetter, details some of this year’s announcements. …
Read More »2025-12-05
Wall Street’s financial engineers thought they had found yet another way to turn financial markets into casinos. The gimmick this time is with 3x, 4x, and even 5x leveraged ETFs tied to individual stocks and cryptocurrencies. The SEC just ruled against these new proposals, apparently drawing the line at 2x leverage as the rules state. …
Read More »2025-12-04
As we share below, courtesy of FinViz, natural gas prices have risen by over 50% since late October. Moreover, natural gas prices, approaching $5, are at three-year highs. The primary cause of the recent price surge is increased heating demand driven by colder-than-expected winter weather, which is resulting in greater-than-average inventory draws. Per the EIA, …
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The end of the year tends to sneak up on people. One minute it’s late summer; the next, you’re staring at a calendar and wondering how to wrap up your financial goals before the deadline hits. A thoughtful approach can make a measurable difference in what you keep, what you owe, and how prepared you …
Read More »2025-12-03
Based solely on Black Friday sales data, the holiday shopping season may be decent despite poor consumer sentiment. According to Adobe Analytics, which draws data from over one trillion retail site visits, Black Friday online sales hit a record $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year. Per MasterCard’s SpendingPulse, retail sales, including online and in-store …
Read More »2025-12-02
Building wealth requires more than market awareness; it requires keeping as much of your earnings as possible. High net worth investors face steeper tax exposure, wider reporting thresholds, and more complex investment structures. Learning how to reduce taxes on investment income is one of the most effective ways to strengthen long‑term performance. Below are the …
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The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) trading platforms were shut down for approximately 4 hours due to overheating after its cooling system at its Illinois data center failed. The outage began around 10:00 p.m. ET on November 27, halting about 90% of global derivatives volume on the Globex platform across futures and options for equities, bonds, …
Read More »2025-12-01
Per the Financial Times (LINK), HSBC has serious doubts about OpenAI’s financial wherewithal. The following bullet points outline HSBC’s assumptions, which highlight the challenging financial path OpenAI faces. The graphic below from the article shows that HSBC expects OpenAI to run a massive operating loss in the year 2030. Accordingly, they have serious concerns about …
Read More »2025-11-28
Tuesday’s weak Consumer Confidence report was a good reminder of why some economists are calling our economy the K shaped economy. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.8 points to 88.7 in November, below expectations of 93. Moreover, it sits at levels similar to those of early 2020, when the pandemic shuttered the economy. …
Read More »2025-11-25
Ray Dalio is considered by many investment professionals to be a market maven. This is because of the wild success of his hedge fund, Bridgewater, with assets under management of $136 billion, as well as several best-selling economics/finance books he has written. In recent times, Ray Dalio has repeatedly emphasized that markets are in a …
Read More »2025-11-24
Given the two-month delay, Thursday’s BLS employment report on September labor market conditions was not nearly as pertinent as the BLS data typically is. Despite it being old news, it is worth sharing that the number of jobs increased by 119k, but the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%. The markets didn’t seem …
Read More »2025-11-21
As we share below, the odds of a Fed Funds rate cut at the December FOMC meeting are down to 33%. On Wednesday, there was an abrupt repricing of rate cut odds after the BLS cancelled the October employment report and delayed the November data until December 19th. Furthermore, the BLS JOLTS report for September …
Read More »2025-11-20
Fear is being spread on social media that some AI players are nearing default. The evidence, some say, lies in the Bloomberg graphs below showing the widening CDS spreads of Oracle and CoreWeave. Before getting into some details about what the CDS markets may be warning about Oracle and CoreWeave, let’s explain what CDS is. …
Read More »2025-11-19
There is a strong historical relationship between margin debt and the stock market. Given that margin debt just set a record at $1.18 trillion, it’s worth appreciating the mechanics that support this relationship and what it may tell us about how much longer the bull market may run. When stocks rise, the wealth effect kicks …
Read More »2025-11-18
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has long viewed Apple as its crown jewel. In early 2024, Apple shares accounted for nearly 25% of the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio. However, Buffett has been selling out of Apple since then, trimming its stake by over 40%. Based on Buffett’s comments, they are reducing their holdings due to concerns about …
Read More »2025-11-14
Not that long ago, bond yields were rising as concerns over deficits, inflation, and a series of bad Treasury auctions were paraded through the media. We bring this to your attention as the Ten-year Treasury auction on Wednesday was on the weaker side, yet the bond market reaction was minimal. Additionally, government deficits are just …
Read More »2025-11-13
Meta and Google recently borrowed a combined $55 billion in the corporate bond market. As we share below, this debt represents a new source of funding for data center expansion. Further, as shown in orange, Oracle tapped the private market for loans to secure the capital needed to sustain AI innovation and the related data …
Read More »2025-11-12
President Trump proposed, with the full support of Federal Housing Director Bill Pulte, that homeowners be allowed to take out 50-year mortgages. The goal is to make housing more affordable, especially for younger generations who lack real estate equity and face high home prices and elevated mortgage rates. Read more about the sad state of …
Read More »2025-11-11
Buckle Up! With the end of the government shutdown and the return to work of government employees comes a flood of economic data. Below is a list of old economic data that should be released over the coming weeks: The list goes on. But, of more importance is whether or not the markets will care …
Read More »2025-11-10
With over 75% support, Tesla shareholders approved Elon Musk’s record-breaking, one trillion dollar executive compensation package. The deal is contingent on Musk delivering significant value to shareholders. The package is an all-stock plan structured into 12 tranches. If he meets all the milestones, Musk could receive as many as 423.7 million additional shares, equating to …
Read More »2025-11-07
Sarah Friar, OpenAI’s CFO, spoke at a Wall Street Journal technology conference to update the audience on the potential of AI. While her comments were very optimistic, she noted that OpenAI seeks continued capital inflows, highlighting the lynchpin for AI development. Her quote below, courtesy of Bloomberg, takes traditional bank and industry financing a step …
Read More »2025-11-06
On many recent occasions, we have noted that the market breadth is poor and appears to be worsening. By worsening, we mean that the number of market leaders is declining, and a growing number of stocks, stock factors, sectors, and asset classes are lagging. Currently, the small list of stock factors showing up in SimpleVisor’s …
Read More »2025-11-05
The Supreme Court (SCOTUS) will begin hearing arguments challenging President Trump’s use of tariffs. Given the market volatility that tariffs have generated over the last six months, the SCOTUS case could prove to be yet another market-moving event. The tariff challengers argue that the administration overstepped its bounds under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers …
Read More »2025-11-04
Yesterday morning, OpenAI announced a massive $38 billion strategic partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS). This deal highlights OpenAI’s diversification strategy amid explosive growth and capacity demands for training advanced models like ChatGPT. Before the deal, OpenAI relied 100% on Microsoft for its cloud infrastructure. In addition to diversifying its cloud servers, the deal may …
Read More »2025-11-03
Last Wednesday, for the first time since November 2021, a Hindenburg Omen hit. This gauge is triggered when an upward trend is met with a growing number of stocks hitting both new 52-week highs and lows. Such indicates bad breadth, weakening momentum, and indecision. If all five conditions listed below are met, the indicator gives …
Read More »2025-10-31
Dow Theory is a market tool developed by Charles Dow in the very early 1900s. Dow also created the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The basic gist of Dow theory is that market trends are confirmed when gains or record highs are established in the broader market indexes, and then confirmed by similar trends and/or record …
Read More »2025-10-30
Two weeks ago, Jerome Powell stated, “We may be approaching the end of our balance sheet contraction in the coming months.” In simple terms, as we wrote HERE, he is prepping the market for a quicker end to QT than was previously expected. While Powell was cryptic about why, the answer is obvious: liquidity concerns. …
Read More »2025-10-29
The phrase “debasing the currency” is all the rage in the media. Moreover, the debasement narrative is used to support the significant surge in gold and other precious metal prices. We have written a few articles on the subject of debasement, for example: Dollar Debasement and Debasement: What It Is and Isn’t. To help further …
Read More »2025-10-28
Gold and bitcoin are touted as the “anti-dollar”, or in some people’s minds, possible replacements for the US dollar. Thus, one would expect the dollar-debasement trade to benefit gold and bitcoin similarly. The reality throughout this year has not been what many would expect. For example, gold is up over 50% this year, while bitcoin …
Read More »2025-10-27
The chart below, courtesy of Apollo’s Torsten Slok, shows that small-cap companies with negative earnings have outperformed small-cap companies with positive earnings by about 30% since early April. Per Torsten: “Something remarkable is going on in the equity market. Stock prices of companies with negative earnings have in recent months outperformed stock prices of companies …
Read More »2025-10-24
As we approach today’s delayed CPI report, it’s helpful to look beyond government statistics to focus on a more current and robust picture of inflation. Implied Inflation: This is derived from comparing the yields of nominal Treasury securities to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The graph below (bottom left) shows that implied inflation, also known …
Read More »2025-10-23
In August 2025, Beyond Meat (BYND), a plant-based meat producer, took to social media to call reports of its bankruptcy “unequivocally false”. Despite the assurances, the company was floundering, and bankruptcy was a possibility. The company has significant liabilities and has lost money every year since its IPO. Adding to their woes, sales peaked in …
Read More »2025-10-22
Not only is the market chasing the most speculative of assets, but it is employing record amounts of leverage to do so. Traditionally, investors use margin loans to gain leverage. More recently, however, leveraged ETFs allow investors to get leverage in one package. To wit, the graph below, courtesy of BofA, shows that there are …
Read More »2025-10-21
Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal wrote an interesting article (Maybe ‘Debasement’ Isn’t The Best Way To Put it), sharing his opinion on the rising popularity of the so-called debasement trade. The debasement trade logic that Joe generally debunks is growing very popular in the media, per the Bloomberg graph below. While Joe thinks the debasement trade logic …
Read More »2025-10-17
In our Daily Commentary from October 9th, we alerted readers to the fact that the Fed’s Overnight Repurchase Program was warning that the financial system was running out of a reliable store of excess liquidity. While not a concern, as we share in our quote below, it was worth monitoring. Said differently, after years of …
Read More »2025-10-16
Chairman Powell spoke on Tuesday, addressing several topics. Of note was the following quote: “We may be approaching the end of our balance sheet contraction in the coming months.” The market interpretation is that QT is ending soon. As a reminder, QT, also known as quantitative tightening, has been in effect for over three years. …
Read More »2025-10-15
On Tuesday morning, Bloomberg featured an article entitled The Great Debasement Is Rippling Across Markets. From the start of the year until its low in the middle of September, the US dollar index fell by nearly 15%. The weak dollar seems to fuel the debasement narrative, benefiting a few asset classes. The most obvious assets …
Read More »2025-10-14
Last Friday, the cryptocurrency market experienced a violent crash. The trigger was President Trump’s announcement of a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports. The sudden and unexpected action reignited fears of a full-blown trade war. Global risk assets fell sharply. Of these, the most notable declines occurred in the cryptocurrency markets, particularly the altcoin market. …
Read More »2025-10-13
The First Brands Group, manufacturer of auto parts, including Raybestos brakes and FRAM, filed for bankruptcy on September 29th. This bankruptcy is troubling in two ways. First, per the ZeroHedge chart below, the price of First Brands loans fell by 80% in a day. In other words, the loan market had no clue of financial …
Read More »2025-10-10
According to The Wall Street Journal, on an inflation-adjusted basis, technology companies have spent more in the last three years on data centers, chips, and energy than has been spent over the past forty years building out the nation’s interstate system. The massive amount of investments being put to work is stunning. But the Wall …
Read More »2025-10-09
The graph below, courtesy of the St. Louis Fed, charts the amount of money in the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement (ON RRP) facility. To understand why the current lack of a meaningful balance in the program could become concerning, let’s revisit the Fed’s response to the Pandemic. During the pandemic and global economic shutdown, …
Read More »2025-10-08
As we led in yesterday’s Commentary, AMD rose 25% on the news that OpenAI would purchase 10% of AMD. In exchange, OpenAI will become a significant customer of AMD. This symbiotic relationship is just one of many that OpenAI is forming with companies at the forefront of the AI revolution. The bullet points and graphic …
Read More »2025-10-07
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock opened up by nearly 35% on Monday morning, following reports that OpenAI is acquiring a 10% stake in AMD. As part of the agreement, AMD will supply OpenAI with 6 gigawatts of AMD’s Instinct GPUs.
Read More »2025-10-06
The following discussion is courtesy of Paul Mortimer Lee, as provided by Albert Edwards of Societe Generale. Paul makes an interesting case that PCE prices, the Fed’s primary gauge of inflation, are likely to decline. Supporting his view is a relatively wide and growing gap between the prices witnessed by the non-financial corporate business sector, …
Read More »2025-10-03
Eli Lilly and other US-based drug makers have led the market over the last few days. The reason appears to be Pfizer’s agreement with President Trump to sell its drugs through Medicaid at cheaper prices. It’s not just Pfizer; Eli Lilly is reportedly in active discussions with the administration to participate in a similar deal. …
Read More »2025-10-02
In Monday’s Commentary, we alerted readers that the dollar could be setting up for a reversal higher. Furthermore, we noted that if such a turn comes to fruition, some investors may encounter surprises. To wit: As such, investors should examine their portfolios for risks that have developed with the reversal of the previously overbought dollar, to …
Read More »2025-10-01
In a bold and unusual pivot, a traditional Japanese manufacturer of Kimonos is transitioning to a cryptocurrency treasury company. Marusho Hotta, which has been manufacturing kimonos since 1861, will rebrand as the Bitcoin Japan Corporation. The transformation stems from a June acquisition by Bakkt Holdings (BKKT), which took a controlling stake in the company to …
Read More »2025-09-30
If Congress can’t come to a budget resolution in the next 24 hours, the government will shut down. Sound familiar? We have become numb to the prospect of a government shutdown because it occurs so frequently. Most often, continuing resolution bills are agreed upon before a shutdown, thus enabling the government to continue operating. In …
Read More »2025-09-29
There appears to be a frequently repeated myth on social media that foreigners are selling US Treasury bonds in large quantities. Often, the myth is supported by the belief that certain foreign governments, such as China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, are rapidly selling down their US Treasury securities. Concerns about trade deficits, inflation, and geopolitical …
Read More »2025-09-26
Several articles and social media posts have recently discussed the irregular partnerships that Nvidia is forming with some of its clients. The gist of the story is that Nvidia is investing in its clients, who then use the funds to buy Nvidia chips. This is what CNBC stated in a headline on Wednesday. This is …
Read More »2025-09-25
Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NOVO) dominate the market for weight loss drugs. The monopoly has proven incredibly profitable for both companies. Consider that in the last quarter, LLY reported that $8.58 billion of its $15.56 billion in total revenue came from its two GLP-1 weight loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound. Even a greater percentage …
Read More »2025-09-24
Meme stocks are highly speculative stocks, heavily traded by retail traders, and characterized at times by rapid price surges and equally sharp declines. The extreme volatility is often the result of social media platforms such as Reddit’s WallStreetBets pushing these stocks. Among the most noteworthy meme stocks of the last few years have been GameStop …
Read More »2025-09-23
Our friend Jim Colquitt, in his Weekly Chart Review, brought to our attention a large and irregular outflow from equity funds last week. He cites a Reuters article stating that investors withdrew $43 billion from US equity funds last week. That was the largest outflow since December 2024. The graph below shows that equity fund …
Read More »2025-09-22
Does size matter? Since the Pandemic, and judged by the recent performance of the Magnificent Seven and mega-cap indexes, many investors would say it matters, likely claiming that the greater the size, the better the returns. Those with data going back decades, rather than years, would also agree that size matters. However, their conclusion would …
Read More »2025-09-19
Since the middle of July, UST 10-year yields have fallen from 4.50% to 4.00%. While the yield decline has been profitable for bondholders, it has also aided many other investors. Such a finding may seem counterintuitive, considering that lower yields are the result of a significant weakening in the labor market and a range of …
Read More »2025-09-18
Not surprisingly, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points at yesterday’s meeting. With the cut, the Fed Funds rate sits at 4.00-4.25%. While the market was nearly certain of a 25bps cut, it is less clear about what the road ahead holds for Fed policy. To help us start thinking about how policy may change at the upcoming meetings, we share a few comments from yesterday’s FOMC meeting.
Read More »2025-09-17
President Trump is pushing to reduce the SEC’s financial reporting requirements from quarterly to semiannual reporting. He’s framing the idea in a positive light: it would allow managers to focus on the business, lower compliance costs, and fight “short-termism” in markets. In reality, it would weaken one of the hallmarks of U.S. capital markets: timely …
Read More »2025-09-16
The White House has turned its attention to the Bureau of Labor Statistics after a series of steep payroll revisions rattled confidence in the government’s jobs data. President Trump fired the agency’s commissioner last month and has nominated a longtime critic to take her place, pledging reforms to improve accuracy. But the problems run deeper …
Read More »2025-09-15
After years of abundant liquidity, U.S. overnight funding markets are beginning to show signs of strain. Interest rates on overnight repo agreements have climbed steadily this month as the Treasury rebuilds its cash balance and the Fed continues quantitative tightening. Usage of the Fed’s overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility, a key gauge of excess liquidity, …
Read More »2025-09-12
Oilfield service companies are fighting an uphill battle after years of weak demand from traditional energy producers. A relentless multi-year decline in U.S. rig counts has resulted in beaten-down oilfield service companies turning to an unlikely new customer base: technology firms racing to power AI data centers. According to the WSJ, companies such as Solaris …
Read More »2025-09-11
The AI infrastructure trade stagnated through August, with enthusiasm fading even after NVDA beat earnings and raised guidance. Investors shifted their focus to weakening economic data and looming Fed rate cuts, fueling the narrative that the AI boom had run its course. That changed yesterday, when Oracle reignited the trade with a blockbuster earnings call. …
Read More »2025-09-10
Main Street optimism edged higher in August, as the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose to 100.8. That reading sits above the long-term average of 98 but missed the consensus estimate of 101. Stronger sales expectations led the improvement, with a net 12% of owners anticipating higher real sales volumes. This represents a six-point jump …
Read More »2025-09-09
The August jobs report clarified what many investors already suspect: the U.S. labor market is stalling. Outside of healthcare and social assistance, private-sector job creation has nearly flatlined this year. So far in 2025, the economy has added an average of 74,000 private-sector jobs per month. Stripping out the ~64,000 monthly additions from healthcare jobs, …
Read More »2025-09-08
Another round of quarterly earnings reports has come and gone, and once again, many companies beat profit expectations. Yet a glance at the graph below from The Wall Street Journal, showing that retail sales have been flat excluding inflation, suggests that the ways in which companies are growing their earnings must be changing. The Wall …
Read More »2025-09-05
The Fed has cut the Fed Funds rate by 1% since late 2024, and the presumption from many market participants is that the Fed has made policy less restrictive. Technically, they are somewhat correct. Banks and other financial institutions that borrow over very short periods have seen their borrowing costs decline due to the Fed’s …
Read More »2025-09-04
Tesla is the leading manufacturer of electric vehicles (EVs) in the US and second, behind BYD, in the world. Despite its strong position in the EV market, Tesla is only the fourteenth largest auto manufacturer. Despite its low ranking, it has a market capitalization that is almost four times that of Toyota, the second-largest auto …
Read More »2025-09-03
The graph below breaks down the monthly performance of the S&P 500 since 1928. As shown, September is the only month that has seen more negative monthly performances than positive ones. September’s record joins February as the only two months with a negative average, albeit February is only down 0.08%, versus the more significant 1.17% …
Read More »2025-09-02
Once again, we find ourselves waiting on the all-important BLS labor report. The markets and the Fed are heavily dependent on the monthly BLS employment data; however, there are other labor market data sources that can provide a more frequent indication of labor market conditions. For instance, the weekly BLS data on jobless claims helps …
Read More »2025-08-29
Once again, Nvidia continues to see its earnings and revenues grow at astonishing rates. Consider the following: As we noted, data center revenue is driving Nvidia’s fantastic earnings and revenue growth. Helping maintain this growth is its Blackwell GPU architecture. In the last quarter, the new Blackwell products saw a 17% jump in revenue. As …
Read More »2025-08-28
Tax planning is often viewed through the narrow lens of annual deductions and April deadlines. But for high-income earners and business owners, advanced tax planning strategies can be one of the most powerful tools for building and preserving long-term wealth. Strategic, forward-looking tax planning isn’t just about minimizing what you owe today. Instead, it’s about …
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President Trump fired Fed Governor Lisa Cook for cause. The President claims, There is sufficient reason to believe you may have made false statements on one or more mortgage agreements. This is the first time in the 112-year history of the Fed that a President has fired a Fed Governor. Cook is fighting the dismissal, …
Read More »2025-08-27
We have written a few Commentaries over the last year describing how retail, not institutional, investors are driving markets higher. To wit, there is ample evidence that with each market dip, retail investors are not selling, instead buying unrelentingly. In May, we wrote the following: Typically, institutional investors are right; however, over the last few …
Read More »2025-08-26
As we noted in a recent article entitled The High Beta Melt Up: Echoes of 1999, there has been a notable change in investor preferences since the April lows. To wit: “What we do know is that, starting from the April lows, the market’s attitude toward riskier, more speculative activities has become much more intense.” …
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Most of us start financial planning with a basic idea: save, invest, and retire comfortably. But what happens when life throws something big your way, good or bad? Maybe you will sell your business sooner than expected. Maybe you receive an inheritance. Maybe life takes a sharp left turn through divorce, or you decide to …
Read More »2025-08-25
“Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” That key line from Chairman Powell’s opening speech at the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium effectively summarizes Powell’s view on monetary policy. Simply, the change in the balance of risks since the BLS jobs revisions …
Read More »2025-08-22
The market seas are calm, but beneath the surface, there is some intense churning, or in market terminology, significant stock rotations. Over the last week, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were relatively flat. Such gives the appearance of a low volatility, typical late August market with little going on. However, beneath the calm of …
Read More »2025-08-21
Financial planning is not one-size-fits-all. Your goals, responsibilities, and lifestyle are all unique to you. Your financial strategy is no different. Building wealth, or preparing for retirement? Life transitions like these require some help from personalized financial planning instead of a run-of-the-mill algorithm. Find clarity, confidence, and a strategy that involves YOU with RIA Advisors. …
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Nearly $3 trillion of notional stock options expire on Friday’s open expiration (OPEX day). Over half of the OPEX volume is in S&P 500 options, with the remainder in single stock options. The graph below provides details on the split between puts and calls, and the strike prices and open interest of the options. Almost …
Read More »2025-08-20
In Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway’s latest SEC disclosures, the company reported buying a nearly $1 billion stake in homebuilders Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI). The purchases signal anticipation of a housing market rebound, possibly piqued by the possibility of the Fed starting a rate-cutting regime. However, while Buffett appears confident of the new home …
Read More »2025-08-19
The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, is an annual event in which central bankers from the Fed and around the world gather with policymakers, economists, and financial market participants to discuss economic issues.
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Creating wealth is a remarkable accomplishment, but preserving it across generations is a different challenge altogether. Families who want to build a lasting impact must go beyond investment portfolios. They need a clear, cohesive plan to pass on not just money, but purpose, values, and financial confidence.
Read More »2025-08-18
Since 2015, the performance of the S&P 500 has been more than double that of stocks from the Euro STOXX 50 (FEZ) and the iShares developed markets ETF (EFA). However, recently the tide has turned, and the Euro and broader foreign stock indices are beating the S&P 500.
Read More »2025-08-15
Edward Harrison of Bloomberg recently made the following important market observation: “buying stuff you don’t believe in creates downside risk.” Conviction is a measure of how much investors believe in their holdings. When conviction runs high, investors are often more willing to tolerate lower prices. In fact, some may add to their positions at lower prices. …
Read More »2025-08-14
When it comes to managing wealth, especially for high-net-worth families and business owners, investment decisions can feel overwhelming. Market volatility, emotional reactions, and competing priorities can quickly lead to inconsistent choices that erode long-term success. That’s where an Investment Policy Statement (IPS) comes in. Yet despite its value, many investors skip this crucial document, unknowingly …
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Private equity funds often buy assets intending to sell them and realize a profit over a specific period. However, recently it’s become more common that their assets are not ready to be sold when they had initially forecasted. While the fund can hold the assets longer than expected, fundholders may demand liquidity. Instead of selling …
Read More »2025-08-13
Since the Pandemic, markets have been behaving abnormally. One such instance is a somewhat regular occurrence of bad market breadth. In other words, the market-cap weighted S&P 500 drives higher, yet fewer and fewer stocks are participating in the rally. For instance, in Monday’s Commentary, we discussed the current instance of bad breadth. To wit: …
Read More »2025-08-12
When it comes to your financial future, choosing the right advisor matters. But not all financial advisors operate the same way. One of the most important distinctions you can make is between a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) and an advisor at a big bank or brokerage firm. At first glance, both may offer similar services …
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As we share below, the Fed Funds futures market is 86.5% confident the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps in September. However, they assign a zero percent chance that the Fed cuts by 50 bps. Powell’s trepidation to cut rates leaves traders unwilling to consider that anything more than 25bps is possible. We argue …
Read More »2025-08-11
While tariff threats dominate headlines, automakers face a structural shift that could reshape the global auto industry. In response to steep auto import duties, manufacturers are being nudged toward “local for local” production models- an expensive and time-consuming pivot. Per the Wall Street Journal article “Auto Industry Takes $12 Billion Hit From Trade War”: Beyond …
Read More »2025-08-08
For months, we have been warning that the labor markets are not as strong as the BLS data attests. Six months ago, we wrote: While labor market data is generally good, there are signs the labor market is at a standstill. Continuing jobless claims are steadily rising and at their highest level in over three …
Read More »2025-08-07
Selling a business is often the biggest financial event of an entrepreneur’s life. Whether it’s a decades-long family company or a fast-growing startup, the decision to sell brings both opportunity and complexity. Amid the excitement of closing the deal, it’s crucial not to overlook the planning that must take place before and after the transaction. …
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While the market steadily rose throughout June and July, corporate insiders were growing less enthusiastic about the stock market. Less than a third of S&P 500 companies saw insiders purchase stock in their own company in July. That is the lowest figure since 2018. Moreover, the ratio of buys to sells for insiders fell to …
Read More »2025-08-06
The race to build and power AI data centers is creating an interesting anomaly in the stock market. Despite the S&P 500 being up over 7% on the year, and the higher-beta stocks seemingly leading the way, utilities and industrials are the best-performing sectors. The surging demand for power drives utilities, while industrials benefit from …
Read More »2025-08-05
Charitable giving can be a powerful component of your long-term financial plan. With the right strategy, giving can help you support the causes you care about while simultaneously reducing your tax burden and enhancing your legacy. Whether you’re considering a donor-advised fund, establishing a charitable trust, or exploring private foundations, integrating philanthropy into your broader …
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Shares of Palantir rose about 20% the day President Trump was elected president. The stock hasn’t looked back, more than tripling since election day. Palantir has been a big winner under the Trump administration. This past weekend, the Washington Post highlighted some of the big government contract wins for Palantir as shown below: Palantir’s sales …
Read More »2025-08-04
President Trump has been incessantly pressuring Jerome Powell to cut rates ever since he took office. To wit, check out Trump’s latest post on Truth Social below. The Fed cut rates in late 2024 but stopped when Trump took office. Some claim the pause is political. Conversely, the Fed primarily supports its case with fears …
Read More »2025-08-01
The BEA reported that real GDP grew by 3.0% in the second quarter. Such is almost a percent better than the longer run trend growth rate, and is a cause for optimism for some. However, first quarter GDP was -0.5%, well below trend growth, and worthy of pessimism. The problem with being optimistic about the second quarter or pessimistic about the first quarter is that the threat of tariffs and actual tariffs abnormally impacted the data.
Read More »2025-07-31
December 2024 marked the second-to-last time there was a dissent by an FOMC voting member. The dissent, at the time, was a sole vote by Jefferey Schmid against cutting rates. The last dissent was yesterday. While the Fed voted to maintain the Fed Funds rate at 4.25-4.50%, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Wallace cast dissenting votes in favor of reducing rates.
Read More »2025-07-30
The graph below, from Michael Green (@profplum99), is the best way to show the logic that drives a Ponzi scheme in Bitcoin. The Ponzi scheme graph illustrates that there is a robust correlation between changes in the amount of Bitcoin held in funds (ETFs) and the price change. Simply, as new capital is used to …
Read More »2025-07-29
As a business owner, you’ve worked hard to build wealth for yourself, your family, and future generations. Yet without the right plan, a significant portion of your estate could be lost to taxes. That’s where tax-efficient wealth transfer strategies come into play. These strategies help you reduce estate tax exposure, preserve your legacy, and support …
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Construction of AI data centers can take anywhere from six months to multiple years to complete. Accordingly, they can’t build data centers quickly enough to keep up with the demand. Accordingly, we will need new, innovative solutions to meet the demand. For example, a startup private company named Armada makes portable AI data centers for …
Read More »2025-07-28
Typically, in Monday’s Commentaries, we share a few paragraphs titled “The Week Ahead’ in a lower section. This week, the amount and importance of the data could have a meaningful impact on markets and the Fed. Thus, this week’s’ “The Week Ahead’ gets top billing. Let’s review the calendar: Between this week’s labor and inflation …
Read More »2025-07-25
Recent surges in speculative stocks are among several indicators that retail traders are introducing a bit of euphoria to the stock market. In an interesting article, MarketWatch notes that Wall Street is paying close attention to speculative trading behavior among retail traders. The following is from the article: Barclays strategists led by Venu Krishna have …
Read More »2025-07-24
Japan and the US appear to have finalized a trade agreement that reduces the threatened 25% tariffs on Japan to 15%. Beyond the tariff rate, the deal has several important facets, including opening Japanese markets to US goods. However, most intriguing is that Japan will be financing the US with a $550 billion investment fund. …
Read More »2025-07-23
Imagine the dilemma of holding a large number of shares of NVDA with a massive unrealized profit. While, on the one hand, you have produced incredible returns, you also have an enormous tax bill once you sell. It appears that very wealthy individuals and some institutions are using a 100-year-old tax code to avoid paying …
Read More »2025-07-22
Investors aware of which types of stocks are rotating in and out favor have a distinct advantage. On Tuesdays, we summarize key points from our SimpleVisor absolute and relative analysis. The DIY tool uses technical analysis to assess how sectors, factors, and individual stocks are performing relative to the market and on an absolute basis. …
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For most Americans, retirement planning advice follows a familiar script: save early, contribute to a 401(k), diversify investments, and aim to reduce expenses in retirement. While this guidance is foundational, it often falls short for high-income earners. Individuals earning well above the national average face a more complex set of financial challenges and opportunities that …
Read More »2025-07-19
Fed Governor Christopher Waller was crystal clear in a speech on Thursday that he would like the Fed to cut rates in July. Importantly, consider the first line of his speech at NYU: My purpose this evening is to explain why I believe that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should reduce our policy rate …
Read More »2025-07-18
It appears President Trump set a test for the market to see what investors would think of him firing Jerome Powell. The bond and stock markets provided a swift answer to Trump’s test. The test originated inconspicuously from a post on X by Florida Republican Anna Paulina Luna, who had been on the phone with …
Read More »2025-07-17
The BLS Producer Price Index (PPI), measuring wholesale prices, surprised to the downside, showing a zero percent increase in prices for June. PPI came in lower than what all 50 forecasters in Bloomberg’s survey predicted. To wit, both the core and headline figures were 0.20% below estimates. Notably, the headline PPI for the last three …
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A static approach to investing is not enough. While long-term strategies remain foundational, flexibility in execution is key to preserving wealth and maximizing returns. That’s where tactical asset allocation comes in. Tactical asset allocation is a hands-on investment strategy that allows advisors to actively shift portfolio allocations based on changing market conditions. It’s not about …
Read More »2025-07-16
Yesterday’s CPI data was viewed by many as the first monthly BLS report to capture the full impact of tariffs. The headline CPI rose 0.3% and the core CPI data showed a 0.2% increase. The CPI data was slightly lower than Wall Street’s expectations for a 0.3% increase for both figures. Those claiming that tariffs …
Read More »2025-07-15
For the first time since 2016, the Federal government ran a budget surplus in June. Before the Financial Crisis, a surplus was the norm. However, since then, deficits have been the rule, not the exception. The cause of the $27 billion surplus was $27 billion in tariffs taken in. For reference, the government took in …
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Investing is as much about mindset as it is about markets. When volatility strikes or headlines spark fear, even experienced investors can fall prey to emotional decision-making. Selling too soon, buying too late, or abandoning a plan entirely. These responses often do more harm than good. That’s where a risk managed investment strategy can make …
Read More »2025-07-14
In a unique event, the US government, specifically the Department of Defense (DoD), bought a 15% stake in the nation’s largest rare earth miner, MP Materials (MP). The DoD is buying $400 million of MP’s convertible preferred stock. The transaction will make the government MP’s largest shareholder. The following quote on the benefits of the partnership …
Read More »2025-07-11
Jerome Powell has made it clear that tariffs could induce higher inflation. Accordingly, the Fed has resisted cutting interest rates. Despite his concerns, fears of tariff-based inflation, as judged by individual and business surveys, are fading. Moreover, even some Fed […] The post Is Immigration Not Tariffs Becoming Powell’s New Excuse appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2025-07-10
With the amount of Treasury debt now in sharp focus, it’s worth cutting through the technical jargon used by the media to quantify demand at Treasury auctions. This summary of key Treasury auction terms will help you judge the auctions for yourself and not rely on others.
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When you’ve accumulated more than $1 million for retirement, your financial priorities shift. It’s no longer just about growth but about protecting what you’ve built and generating reliable income that will support your lifestyle for decades to come.
Read More »2025-07-09
Apple (AAPL) shares are languishing this year. As we share below, the stock is down over 16% year-to-date and significantly lags all of the Magnificent Seven stocks except Tesla. While weak revenue growth and relatively few new products are culprits, it’s also worth noting that Apple is considerably behind in AI development. Some Apple employees, …
Read More »2025-07-08
Hidden within a Bloomberg article published over the July 4th weekend was the following quote alluding to the possibility that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could simultaneously replace Jerome Powell as the Fed Chair, while continuing to serve as the Treasury Secretary. The president said Tuesday he has “two or three top choices” to potentially succeed …
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For high-net-worth families, passing wealth to the next generation involves more than just distributing assets. It’s about preserving a legacy, protecting what you’ve built, and preparing heirs to become responsible stewards. Generational wealth transfer is both a technical process and an emotional journey, and getting it right requires clarity, preparation, and expert guidance. In this …
Read More »2025-07-07
In no uncertain words, Intel’s stock has been a dog. As we share below, Intel stock has increased by a mere 2% over the last 20 years, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) has risen by over 1,200%. Over the previous 20+ years, Intel’s management has made many missteps, including: With dirt-cheap valuations compared to …
Read More »2025-07-03
When your wealth reaches seven figures or more, every financial decision carries greater weight and consequences. That’s why choosing the right financial advisor isn’t just a preference. It’s a necessity. High-net-worth individuals need more than cookie-cutter advice or product-driven sales pitches. They need strategic, objective, and comprehensive guidance. That’s where a fiduciary financial advisor stands …
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The Fed and most investors primarily assess the labor market based on the monthly BLS employment report. To better guide those estimates, various reports, such as the monthly ADP report, can be helpful. We say “can be” because, since the pandemic, ADP has been less correlated with the BLS than it was before the pandemic. …
Read More »2025-07-02
The age of robotics is no longer a futuristic concept. Per a Wall Street Journal article entitled, Amazon Is On The Cusp Of Using More Robots Than Humans In Its Warehouses, Amazon now has over one million robots in its warehouses doing the work that humans once handled. More impressively, the million robots are nearing …
Read More »2025-07-01
For many executives, compensation isn’t just a paycheck—it’s a portfolio. Stock options, restricted stock units (RSUs), deferred compensation plans, and bonuses can significantly impact long-term financial security. Yet too often, these benefits are left underutilized or poorly timed. That’s where executive compensation planning plays a pivotal role. With the right strategies in place, you can …
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Recently, the media have highlighted anomalies in the University of Michigan (UM) consumer sentiment survey compared to other financial/economic sentiment surveys. It turns out UM changed their data gathering methods between April and July 2024. While it’s challenging to determine the impact of these changes and whether they are responsible for the recent divergences from …
Read More »2025-06-30
Donald Trump’s frustration with Chairman Powell increases by the day. Consequently, per The Wall Street Journal, expectations are that Trump will announce Powell’s successor sooner than typical. Powell’s term expires May 2026. If Trump goes through with an early nomination, this “shadow Fed Chair” would espose views on the economy and monetary policy until Powell’s retirement. Consequently, …
Read More »2025-06-27
Yesterday’s Commentary noted that the dollar is very oversold and likely due for a reversal. To wit: The dollar is deeply deviated from its longer-term mean, oversold on multiple levels, and has been basing since April. As noted last Friday, the incredibly negative bias and position against the dollar are excellent contrarian signals for a …
Read More »2025-06-26
For high-net-worth individuals, wealth is more than a measure of financial success; it’s a means to achieve personal fulfillment, support cherished causes, and leave a lasting legacy. Traditional financial planning often emphasizes asset accumulation and tax efficiency. However, a more […] The post How to Align Your Financial Plan with Your Life Goals appeared first …
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With interest rates in developed economies falling but still significantly higher than their respective troughs in 2021-2022, some pundits are claiming that we are entering a new interest rate regime. Gone, they say, are the days of near-zero or even negative interest rates. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may lead some pundits to rethink their logic. On June 19, 2025, the SNB reduced its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.00%. Here are some reasons behind the SNB decision.
Read More »2025-06-25
Fed Chair Jerome Powell presented his quarterly testimony to the House yesterday and will testify to the Senate today. The market reaction was minimal as much of his speech was a repeat of last week’s FOMC meeting and press conference. […] The post Powell Testifies On Monetary Policy To Congress appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2025-06-24
Behavioral finance is a powerful lens through which we can better understand the relationship between human psychology and financial decision-making. While numbers and logic drive traditional investing models, real-world choices are often heavily influenced by emotions like fear, greed, and […] The post The Role of Behavioral Finance in Protecting Your Wealth appeared first on …
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Closing the Strait of Hormuz would have severe implications for global trade, most importantly oil. As the graphic below, courtesy of the EIA, shows, about 14 million barrels of oil and condensate flow through the Strait daily. That equates to […] The post Strait Of Hormuz Closure: Why It Hurts Iran Too appeared first on …
Read More »2025-06-23
As the building of AI and cloud data centers expands rapidly, the demand for energy to power these data centers grows. The problem, however, is that the existing power grid can’t keep up with the rapidly increasing demand. Furthermore, improving and expanding the power grid takes longer than building data centers.
Read More »2025-06-20
The Fed left rates and the pace of QT unchanged as expected in Wednesday’s meeting. Powell’s opening statement was updated to reflect that uncertainty about the economic outlook has “diminished but remains elevated.” Powell emphasized that the Fed would maintain a data-dependent approach and isn’t in a hurry to cut rates, but left the door …
Read More »2025-06-19
High-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) face financial challenges and opportunities that go far beyond the scope of traditional investment advice. While most investors may focus on growing their nest egg, HNWIs must balance growth with preservation, manage complex tax situations, and prepare for legacy and philanthropic goals.
Read More »2025-06-18
One of the most common parallels for AI stocks’ booming performance is the tech bubble of the 1990s. Both periods were and are being driven by transformative secular developments. On the surface, the remarkable growth, market performance, and high valuations of AI stocks resemble dot-com stocks from the years that created the tech bubble. We’ve …
Read More »2025-06-17
Tesla’s robotaxi service, tentatively set to launch June 22, 2025, lags behind Waymo’s established operations, which deliver 250,000 weekly rides across multiple U.S. cities. Elon Musk’s cautious approach, driven by safety concerns, has delayed the rollout of Tesla’s robotaxi service. However, Tesla’s long-term strategy could position it to overtake competitors. Waymo, backed by Alphabet’s $5 …
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Economic downturns are an inevitable part of the financial cycle. For affluent investors, protecting wealth in recession periods is not just about weathering the storm but strategically positioning assets to avoid major losses and seize long-term opportunities. Whether it’s a bear market, economic contraction, or sudden geopolitical shifts, understanding how to implement a solid financial …
Read More »2025-06-16
Crude oil prices spiked by over $10 on the initial news that Israel was bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities and targeting its key military leaders. The price surge should be expected, given that Iran accounts for slightly over 3% of global production and, more importantly, holds 12% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves. For context, …
Read More »2025-06-13
Initial and continuing jobless claims are as close to a real-time proxy on employment as we have. Thus, while they do not hold the same importance to the markets as the monthly BLS data, they are worth tracking. Moreover, when trends are changing, as they may be now, their importance increases. The two graphs below …
Read More »2025-06-12
The May CPI report released yesterday was considered the first inflation gauge to show how tariffs are impacting prices. We would like to see a few more months of inflation reports before claiming the coast is clear, but the May CPI is encouraging. For the fourth consecutive month, the CPI was below Wall Street estimates. …
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Running a successful business takes grit, vision, and no shortage of time. Between managing operations, leading teams, and scaling growth, personal financial planning often gets pushed to the back burner. When business owners do seek help, they typically turn to their CPA for advice. And while CPAs are invaluable for accounting and tax compliance, they’re …
Read More »2025-06-11
On May 20th, Google CEO Sundar Pichai updated the public on the company’s progress on its AI development as follows: We are now processing 480 trillion monthly tokens, a nearly 50X increase in just one. Over 7 million developers are now building with the Gemini API, a 5x growth since last I.O., and our enterprise …
Read More »2025-06-10
The deficit fearmongers are out in full force, warning that massive debt payments will further exacerbate the deficit and ultimately bankrupt the country. While we agree that steadily increasing deficits are a significant problem, we believe it’s not for the reasons most people give. To that end, a recent Tweet by George Gammon succinctly makes …
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When you’ve worked hard to build wealth, protecting it becomes just as important as growing it. However, even high net worth individuals (HNWIs) often fall into avoidable traps, especially when navigating wealth without a formal financial plan. Without a clear strategy, even sophisticated investors may overlook important details, leading to costly consequences over time. In …
Read More »2025-06-09
Numerous bond narratives are driving long-term bond yields higher. “Crippling deficits” and a tariff-induced inflation sit at the top the list. We have repeatedly poked holes in these narratives. Instead of dwelling further on them, let’s consider what tomorrow’s narratives might be. When the bond market changes direction and yields fall, the two narratives we …
Read More »2025-06-06
The graph below provides a clearer understanding of the US fiscal deficit. First, focus on the red line below, graphing the ratio of federal debt to GDP. Note that it is at the same level today as it was in 2021. Similarly, before the pandemic, it had been relatively flat for seven years. This highlights …
Read More »2025-06-05
The cryptocurrency sphere and that of traditional finance continue to merge in ways that were previously unthinkable. To wit, Canary Capital filed documentation with the SEC to start the first ETF backed by non-fungible digital tokens. Non-fungible tokens are digital assets representing ownership of a specific piece of content. Most often, they are backed by …
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For affluent families, financial success isn’t solely about accumulating wealth; it’s about preserving it across generations, optimizing tax strategies, and aligning financial decisions with personal values and long-term goals. Comprehensive financial planning offers a holistic approach, integrating various financial aspects to provide clarity, control, and confidence in one’s financial journey. Understanding Comprehensive Financial Planning Comprehensive …
Read More »2025-06-04
The following commentary is from Redfin “There are 34% more sellers in the market than buyers. At no other point in records dating back to 2013 have sellers outnumbered buyers this much. In other words, it’s a buyer’s market. Redfin expects home prices to drop 1% by the end of the year as a result. …
Read More »2025-06-03
For many Americans, accumulating $2 million in retirement savings is a significant milestone. However, the longevity of these savings can vary greatly depending on the state in which you choose to retire. Factors such as cost of living, taxes, healthcare expenses, and lifestyle choices all play a role in determining how far your retirement funds …
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An old Wall Street adage advises investors to sell in May and go away. Given that we have just turned the calendar to June, it’s worth assessing whether selling stocks and holding cash for the next seven months makes sense. The graph and data below are based on two trading strategies, both starting in January …
Read More »2025-06-02
Some bearish bond investors in Japan and the US appear to believe that a paradigm shift is underway in the sovereign bond markets. To wit, consider the following statement from Jim Bianco on Thoughtful Money: “If these deficits are really going to kick in and cause problems, these rates are going to go much higher than …
Read More »2025-05-30
On Wednesday afternoon, the judges from the US Court of International Trade struck down some of President Trump’s tariffs. Notably, the judge’s actions included an injunction on the “Liberation Day” tariffs and specific tariffs targeting China, Mexico, and Canada. The court’s three judges found that Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers …
Read More »2025-05-29
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index surged from 85.7 to 98.0. Such was the largest one-month increase since 2009! Clearly, progress on trade deals and the delay in implementing tariffs spurred the increase. Moreover, the recovering stock market also boosted consumer confidence. However, bear in mind that the index is coming off its lowest level …
Read More »2025-05-28
A reader of our Daily Commentary asked how we measure corporate credit spreads in light of the Moody’s downgrade of the USA credit rating. Specifically, “Without having a AAA benchmark to calculate the credit spread of corporate bonds against, what other measure can help me assessing stress in the corporate bond market.” First its important …
Read More »2025-05-27
As retirement approaches—or begins—investors often find themselves at a crossroads: How can you preserve the wealth you’ve accumulated while still ensuring it continues to grow? Striking the right balance between growth and safety in your retirement portfolio is one of the most important financial decisions you’ll make. The key is understanding the trade-offs and creating …
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After a bout of relative market tranquility, investors were rudely awakened Friday with a barrage of new tariff actions targeting the EU and Apple. Via Truth Social, Trump recommended a 50% tariff on European Union imports starting June 1, 2025, and a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outside the US. Regarding the EU, the …
Read More »2025-05-23
The short answer is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is letting the market set yields. For years, the BOJ has run an extremely loose monetary policy, including capping yields at extremely low levels and negative interest rates. Limited economic growth and disinflation made such a policy possible. However, inflationary pressures and a weak yen …
Read More »2025-05-22
When building a strong and diversified portfolio, most investors focus heavily on stocks. But bonds play an equally important role—especially when it comes to managing risk and providing consistent income. Incorporating bonds into your investment portfolio can lead to more […] The post The Role of Bonds in a Well-Balanced Investment Portfolio appeared first on …
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Fiscal worries, the dollar’s imminent demise, and soaring tariff-related inflation expectations are among the concerns driving bond yields higher. At the same time, inflation, the historical determinant of US Treasury yields, continues normalizing. As a bond investor, it is difficult […] The post Bond Yields Are Surging: Narratives Vs. Fundamentals appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2025-05-21
Monday was a record-setting day. Stocks opened down 1% on news that Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating to AA. While some perceived the downgrade as problematic, retail investors, aka individuals, bought stocks at the highest rate ever. Per JP Morgan, retail investors purchased a net of $4.1 billion of US stocks in the first …
Read More »2025-05-20
Over the last fourteen years, as we share below, the US government credit rating has slipped from AAA to AA. Moody’s was the first to cut the USA from AAA to AA in 2011. Fitch followed in 2023, and Moody’s did the same last weekend. Now that the USA government is fully rated AA by …
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The FIRE movement—short for Financial Independence, Retire Early—has gained popularity among those who want more control over their time and financial future. Unlike traditional retirement models, FIRE encourages aggressive saving and disciplined financial planning to reach financial independence far earlier than the typical retirement age. Whether you dream of leaving the 9-to-5 grind in your …
Read More »2025-05-19
Short positions in TLT, the popular 20-year US Treasury Bond ETF, have spiked to over 130 million shares, up from 107 million last month. TLT has 541 million shares outstanding. Consequently, the short interest has risen from 20% to 24% of the float. Furthermore, TLT’s days to cover ratio (short position/average trading volume) is nearly …
Read More »2025-05-16
Per an article in the Financial Times titled US Poised To Dial Back Rules Imposed In Wake of 2008 Crisis, US bank regulators are preparing to reduce bank capital requirements. Of particular interest to the bond market is the supplementary leverage ratio, better known as SLR.
Read More »2025-05-15
Rising inflation can chip away at the value of your money and investments, making it one of the most persistent threats to long-term wealth. As prices increase and purchasing power declines, investors must be proactive in adjusting their strategies to protect their portfolios.
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Below our Market Trading Update, we share analysis from the Atlanta Fed showing that housing affordability has been at its worst in the last twenty years. This is unsurprising given that potential homebuyers face the highest mortgage rates in 20+ years.
Read More »2025-05-14
Bloomberg recently published, This 30-Year Old’s Startup Is Bringing Leverage To 401K Savers. Their article details Basic Capital, a new startup providing institutional investment strategies to individual 401K and IRA savers.
Read More »2025-05-13
Despite the weekend’s positive news on China trade negotiations and the associated jump in most stock prices, the healthcare sector was hit hard. The culprit is an executive order aimed at reducing U.S. prescription drug prices. Donald Trump plans to implement a “Most Favored Nation” (MFN) policy.
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Risk management is one of the most crucial elements of successful financial planning, serving as the foundation for both protecting your assets and achieving your long-term financial goals.
Read More »2025-05-12
Tweets like the one we share below allude that the Fed is doing stealth QE, despite the fact that they publicly claim to be conducting QT. Given the importance of the Fed balance sheet, let’s dive into the stealth QE accusation and uncover the facts.
Read More »2025-05-09
The concepts of “smart money” versus “dumb money” refer to the level of investors’ information and experience. Smart money, typically institutional investors and often seasoned professionals, has extensive research and is more adept at data analysis. Therefore, they tend to […] The post Smart Money Or Dumb Money? Who Will Be Right appeared first on …
Read More »2025-05-08
Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) are an unavoidable part of retirement planning for many Americans. While they are designed to ensure retirees eventually pay taxes on their tax-deferred retirement savings, RMDs can also trigger unintended tax burdens if not planned for […] The post How to Navigate Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) and Minimize Taxes in Retirement …
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“BREAKING: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he will meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland to begin trade talks with China.” A month ago, when markets were grossly oversold, news of trade discussions between China and the US would have sent […] The post Market Is Tepid Over China Developments: Three Conclusions appeared first on RIA.
Read More »2025-05-07
This past weekend, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, announced it would increase production by 411k barrels per day. The action follows a 250k increase last month. The decision is different from OPEC’s decision-making in the past. OPEC typically would use production quotas to manage oil prices. For example, in the current environment, with oil prices …
Read More »2025-05-06
An email from a reader of ours led with the title “PCE is quite confusing.” He asked if we would explain the difference between the monthly PCE prices index and the quarterly PCE prices, i.e., the GDP deflator, accompanying the GDP report.
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Rising interest rates are a powerful force in the financial world, capable of reshaping markets and shifting investment dynamics. As the Federal Reserve raises rates to combat inflation or stabilize economic growth, the ripple effect is felt across stocks, bonds, and real estate. While these rate hikes may be out of investors’ control, adapting your …
Read More »2025-05-05
Japan holds over $1 trillion of US Treasury securities, making it the largest sovereign holder by a significant amount. Thus, the possibility has arisen that Japan might use its extensive holdings as leverage in tariff negotiations. Japanese Foreign Minister Katsunobu Kato said Japan has not made a decision on whether to include its holdings as …
Read More »2025-05-02
This past week, two lower-cost food and beverage retailers posted earnings, which conveyed the underlying message that consumers are struggling. McDonalds and Starbucks reported significant domestic sales declines for the first quarter. McDonalds saw its US same-store sales fall by 3.6%, driven by a decrease in its “guest count.” This was the worst decline in …
Read More »2025-05-01
When your wealth grows, so does the complexity of your financial life. For high-net-worth individuals, tax planning is no longer just about filing accurately—it’s about strategically managing income, investments, and legacy plans to reduce taxable income and preserve wealth over the long term. From investment strategies and estate planning to charitable giving and tax-advantaged accounts, …
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The headlines below lead some to believe the shelves in our stores will soon be empty. Moreover, reminiscent of 2020, an inflation spike due to fractured supply lines is imminent. Let’s provide context to help make sense of the headlines and determine whether the plunge of Chinese inbound container ships to US ports represents truth …
Read More »2025-04-30
According to Bloomberg, Yale University could sell as much as $6 billion of its private equity investments. Such a sale would represent about 15% of its total endowment fund and a third of its private equity holdings. Yale was a frontrunner among endowment funds investing in private equity. Its well-known ex-investment manager, David Swensen, believed …
Read More »2025-04-29
When planning for retirement, securing a reliable income stream is a top priority. Many retirees turn to annuities for retirement income as a way to guarantee financial stability. Guaranteed income strategies help retirees maintain cash flow throughout their lives, reducing the risk of outliving their savings. However, while annuities offer security and predictability, they also …
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The Zweig Breadth Thrust, a rare technical indicator, triggered a bullish signal on Friday. The signal indicates rapid and significant changes in momentum. The calculation is based on the 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks that were positive on a daily basis. The Zweig Breadth Thrust signal occurs when the moving average rises …
Read More »2025-04-28
The Fed removed its handcuffs on banks, allowing them greater flexibility to trade and hold crypto assets. Before Thursday’s action, banks were asked to seek advance approval from the regulators before participating in crypto-related activities. Further, the Fed removed guidance that banks exercise caution with crypto due to its volatility, liquidity, and legal uncertainty. The …
Read More »2025-04-25
Despite a growing chorus of pundits claiming the “death of the dollar” is imminent, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the dollar will remain the world’s reserve currency. The following clip from Bloomberg was based on a speech Scott Bessent gave Thursday morning to the IMF and World Bank: More broadly, the Treasury secretary reinforced backing for the central role of the US and its dollar in the global financial system.
Read More »2025-04-24
Monday’s Commentary started: On Truth Social, President Trump stated, “Powell’s Termination Can’t Come Fast Enough!” The stock and bond markets fell as investors feared President Trump might try to remove Powell from his role as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
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An emergency fund is often associated with working individuals preparing for job loss or unexpected expenses, but it is just as crucial for retirees. Having a dedicated emergency fund for retirees helps cover unforeseen costs without dipping into long-term investments, particularly during market downturns.Protecting retirement savings requires a financial cushion that prevents unnecessary withdrawals from …
Read More »2025-04-23
Since the start of the year, the S&P 500 is down over 10% and nearly 20% from its January peak. At the same time, gold is up almost 30%. The stark return differential is excellent news for gold investors, but the clock may be ticking on gold’s outperformance versus stocks.
Read More »2025-04-22
Economic and inflation forecasts have a highly significant impact on treasury bond yields. Therefore, one would suspect that their yields would follow a linear trend as the maturity lengthens on Treasury securities.
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Estate planning is more than just drafting a will—it is a critical strategy for protecting assets, reducing tax burdens, and ensuring a seamless wealth transfer. Without a proper plan in place, your loved ones may face legal complications, unnecessary expenses, and potential disputes over your estate. Estate planning for wealth is essential for anyone who wants to preserve assets and provide financial security for future generations.
Read More »2025-04-21
On Truth Social, President Trump stated, “Powell’s Termination Can’t Come Fast Enough!” His comment, posted early Thursday morning, followed a speech by Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon. Unlike the ECB and other central banks that are cutting rates, Powell and the Fed hesitate to do so. Despite expectations for lower economic growth, they worry that …
Read More »2025-04-17
Recent consumer sentiment readings have been horrendous. For instance, the University of Michigan’s latest consumer expectations and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index are at or near their lowest levels in ten years. However, despite poor sentiment and concerning outlooks, recent consumer spending reports show increased spending. We, and many economists, believe this is a …
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Social Security plays a crucial role in retirement income planning. Making informed decisions about when and how to claim benefits can maximize your Social Security benefits and significantly impact your long-term financial security. Claiming Social Security wisely requires a deep understanding of how benefits are calculated, the impact of different claiming ages, and the strategies …
Read More »2025-04-16
The chart below, courtesy of JP Morgan Asset Management, highlights how much the US relies on certain rare earth metal imports from China and other nations. It also lists some of the products the metals are needed for. As the chart shows, imports play a critical role in securing our rare earth metal needs. Furthermore, …
Read More »2025-04-15
Despite, or actually because of, the recent market turmoil, many large banks and brokers reported better-than-expected earnings. Market volatility provided a nice boost to trading revenue, which helped offset weakness in other business lines. Goldman Sachs, reporting earnings on Monday, said their equity trading revenue rose 27% from the prior quarter. JP Morgan and Morgan …
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Market volatility is an inevitable part of investing. While short-term fluctuations can create uncertainty, a well-structured portfolio can help protect investments from volatility and ensure long-term financial stability. Managing market fluctuations requires a disciplined approach that includes diversification, asset allocation, and risk management techniques. In this guide, we’ll explore why markets fluctuate, how investors can …
Read More »2025-04-14
Recently, we have seen claims that the “collapsing” dollar will cause inflation. While a weaker dollar can create inflation, many factors impact prices. Accordingly, we have two issues with such dire statements. First, the dollar is not collapsing. Second, we have experienced much more significant dollar declines without an inflationary impulse. The dollar has fallen …
Read More »2025-04-11
The S&P 500 surged 8.5% off its lows on Wednesday as the administration announced a 90-day tariff pause for all countries except China. Sound familiar? In Tuesday’s Commentary, we wrote: For those of you with bearish nightmares, we share one important takeaway from Monday’s market roller coaster. While there is a good chance the market …
Read More »2025-04-10
What is up with the bond market? Many rumors are floating around. For instance, some claim China is selling Treasury bonds in retaliation for increased tariffs. Another rumor claims the bond market is besieged by investors raising money for equity margin calls. While both are plausible, negative interest rate swap spreads point to liquidity problems. …
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For investors looking to reduce tax liability while keeping their portfolios optimized for growth, a tax-loss harvesting strategy can be a valuable tool. By strategically selling underperforming investments to offset capital gains, investors can minimize their tax burden and improve their after-tax returns. Understanding how tax-loss harvesting works, when to apply it, and how it …
Read More »2025-04-09
For those of you with bearish nightmares, we share one important takeaway from Monday’s market roller coaster. While there is a good chance the market may explore new lows over the coming months, we must appreciate that there is plenty of fuel for a sizeable bounce. The one piece of important evidence supporting this thesis …
Read More »2025-04-08
Achieving financial independence and early retirement is a goal for many, but it requires strategic planning, disciplined saving, and careful investing. The idea of retiring early—whether in your 50s, 40s, or even 30s—means building a solid financial foundation that allows you to step away from traditional employment without worrying about running out of money. Early …
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Is a recession coming? That is the billion-dollar question investors now face. One gauge to help us answer the question is corporate bond yield spreads. When the yield differential between corporate bond yields and risk-free Treasury bonds widens significantly, it signals that bond investors are taking a risk-averse stance. Simply, they are pricing higher odds …
Read More »2025-04-07
While stagflation fears grip the market and make headlines, the bond market appears more concerned about ‘stag than ‘flation. Stagflation describes sluggish economic activity or a recession coupled with higher prices and rising unemployment. The ‘stag’ refers to a stagnant economy, while the ‘flation’ is inflation. Please read our article, Stagflation Panic: A Misdiagnosed Media Spin, …
Read More »2025-04-04
Heading into April 2nd, investors were under the impression that Trump’s goal was to set tariff rates that allow for fair trade with other nations. Trade impediments like tariffs, taxes, VATs, currency manipulation, and other methods that don’t allow for fair trade would be offset with tariffs. More simply, Trump would level the playing field. …
Read More »2025-04-03
Estate planning is one of the most important yet often overlooked aspects of financial management. Without a comprehensive plan in place, your wealth and assets may not be distributed as intended, leading to unnecessary tax burdens, family disputes, or legal complications. Proper estate planning ensures that your legacy is protected, your family is financially secure, …
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Over the past few weeks, we have discussed the sharp jump in the trade deficit due to a surge of imports trying to front-run potential tariffs. Thus far, the impact of front-running tariffs on economic data has only been significant in consumer and corporate surveys and the aforementioned trade deficit. That was until Tuesday. The …
Read More »2025-04-02
Yesterday’s Commentary discussed the vast divergence in the economic sentiment of Democrats versus Republicans. In the piece, we wrote: “Democrats think today’s economic outlook is worse than during the peak of Covid and the financial crisis of 2008. Sentiment is tricky to convert into an economic forecast. Sometimes, sentiment is bad, but consumers continue to …
Read More »2025-04-01
Stocks are hitting the skids as April 2nd, or Liberation Day, quickly approaches. Investors are rightfully scared that tariffs announced on Liberation Day will be crippling to the economy and harm corporate earnings. Based on recent comments from Donald Trump, that is a logical concern. However, what if Trump is playing with emotions to make …
Read More »2025-03-31
It wasn’t that long ago that used car prices were soaring as the production of new cars was crimped due to Covid-related supply line shortages. Since then, used car prices have stabilized as the supply lines have healed. However, like many goods, prices haven’t retreated to pre-pandemic levels. As we wrote in yesterday’s Commentary, the …
Read More »2025-03-28
Despite what some may think, the impact of the new 25% auto tariffs will not necessarily benefit all US auto companies to the detriment of their foreign counterparts. For example, as we share below courtesy of Bank of America, Ford produces about 80% of their US-sold cars in the US. However, GM and Stellantis, the …
Read More »2025-03-27
Ben Bernanke popularized the wealth effect theory during the financial crisis in 2008. In his words, “higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending.” Moreover, he argued this would create a “virtuous circle” of increased spending, higher incomes, and further economic growth. Since then, the Fed has …
Read More »2025-03-24
The key to lower inflation may start with the stock market and feed into the economy rather than vice versa. The wealth effect describes the behavioral phenomenon where individuals’ perceived wealth changes impact their spending decisions.
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Planning for retirement is about more than just saving—it’s about ensuring a steady income stream that lasts throughout your retirement years. Without a well-structured plan, you could risk outliving your savings or facing financial hardship due to inflation, taxes, or unexpected expenses. This guide will walk you through retirement income strategies to help you achieve sustainable retirement income while balancing withdrawals, taxes, and long-term financial security.
Read More »2025-03-21
Within the headline retail sales figure is a lesser-followed data point called the retail sales control group. Following the trend of both figures is important because although the headline figure receives more attention, the control group is the measure that feeds into the GDP calculation.
Read More »2025-03-20
Building a secure retirement requires a reliable stream of income that can support your lifestyle without depleting your savings too quickly. A dividend investing strategy offers a way to generate passive income in retirement, providing consistent cash flow while preserving capital. In this article, we’ll explore how dividend-paying stocks can help retirees create sustainable income, …
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As the market widely expected, the FOMC left the Fed Funds rate unchanged. However, the statement summarizing the meeting now includes an economic growth warning- “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.” Moreover, they are reducing the amount of monthly QT. The roll-off of Treasury securities will fall to only $5 billion monthly, down from …
Read More »2025-03-19
The old saying that the bark is worse than the bite is a good description of the current state of the stock market and investors’ sentiment. The following quote from a recent Commentary and our most recent article (summarized and linked below) point to the unusually poor sentiment. The AAII retail investor survey is now …
Read More »2025-03-18
In our Commentary last week, we noted that Delta shares were down over ten percent due to their weak economic outlook. Per our Commentary- “Delta’s CEO offered similar caution: The outlook has been impacted by the recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence caused by increased macro uncertainty, driving softness in Domestic demand. He also …
Read More »2025-03-17
Planning for retirement requires careful preparation and smart financial decisions. However, many retirees make critical errors that can drain their savings, reduce their income, and leave them financially vulnerable. Avoiding financial pitfalls is essential to ensuring a comfortable and stress-free retirement. Here’s a look at some of the most common retirement planning mistakes and how …
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As we have mentioned numerous times, consumer sentiment greatly impacts economic activity. Accordingly, the price activity of particular goods can have an outsized influence on consumer inflation views. For example, orange juice and egg prices have been leading some consumers to have flashbacks of the recent high inflation. Based on the recent price trends of …
Read More »2025-03-14
In hindsight, markets are easy to assess, yet extremely challenging to forecast. For example, as we will show, it’s undeniable that value, particularly large-cap value stocks, have been in vogue during the recent decline, while growth is being kicked to the curb. This rotation from growth to value is an example of how investors rotate …
Read More »2025-03-13
Following a hot January CPI set of inflation data, the BLS CPI report cooled down in February. Headline CPI rose +0.2% versus +0.3% consensus and +0.5% in January. Core CPI was also +0.2% for the month. The year-over-year headline and core rates fell 0.2% from last month’s figures to 2.8% and 3.1%. The 3.1% core …
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A well-structured asset allocation strategy is the foundation of a resilient investment portfolio. It determines how your investments are distributed across different asset classes, balancing risk and return to align with your financial goals. Proper asset allocation can help you navigate market fluctuations, protect wealth, and optimize long-term performance. In this article, we’ll explore the …
Read More »2025-03-12
The rally over the last two years has helped investors forget that markets also go down. After two +20% consecutive years, a sudden 8% drop from recent highs has investors panicking. Bear in mind, no pun intended, that the S&P 500 is only down 4% for 2025. Consider the graph below. It shows that the …
Read More »2025-02-28
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment indicator claims that 60.6% of the retail investors are bearish. The percentage of bears in its survey increased sharply from 40.5% at the prior reading on February 19. The AAII retail investor survey is now the most bearish it has been since September 2022. More stunning, this …
Read More »2025-02-27
Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) are an essential part of managing your retirement accounts and income in retirement. While they provide a way to access your savings, RMDs can have significant tax implications if not handled properly. Understanding how RMDs work, which accounts they affect, and strategies to minimize their tax impact can help you optimize …
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Consumer Confidence, as surveyed by the Conference Board and University of Michigan, shows consumers are starting to lose economic confidence. Given that consumer spending drives the economy and influences inflation, confidence and the means to spend can significantly impact markets. Based on recent job data, the means (i.e., wages) to consume appear to be in …
Read More »2025-02-26
During Donald Trump’s first term, some investors bought into the Trump 1.0 Put. The trade was based on the market’s belief that Trump believed the stock market’s performance was a referendum on his presidency. Accordingly, investors thought that Trump would do everything he could to backstop the stock market if it fell. Thus, some investors …
Read More »2025-02-25
In its annual letter to shareholders this past weekend, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway announced that it had increased its cash holdings to $334 billion. As the Financial Times chart on the right shows, Berkshire’s cash balances have more than doubled over the last few quarters to its highest level. Additionally, cash as a percentage of …
Read More »2025-02-24
The coming unprecedented government job cuts will undoubtedly impact the job market. Given the labor market’s importance to Fed policy and the economy, it’s worth fully appreciating the size of the government workforce and other employees whose jobs might be affected. The following graph, courtesy of John Burns Research & Consulting, shows that 3.8 million …
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Real estate has long been considered a valuable investment option due to its potential for steady income, appreciation, and diversification benefits. For individuals planning for retirement, incorporating real estate retirement investments into a financial strategy can enhance income streams, hedge against inflation, and provide long-term stability. However, like any investment, it comes with risks and …
Read More »2025-02-21
The ETF industry has undoubtedly gotten creative over the last few years. However, nothing tops the latest ETF proposed by Tuttle Capital. Per its SEC registration, the Tuttle Capital UFO Disclosure AI Powered ETF (UFOD) will purportedly invest over 80% of the fund’s assets in companies that they believe “have potential exposure to advanced or …
Read More »2025-02-20
Wages and rents were two of the most impactful factors driving higher inflation and, of recent importance, keeping it stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. As we will share, the good news is that wage growth and rents should be easing. The graph on the right shows that the Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker is …
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Social Security benefits are a cornerstone of retirement income for many Americans, but the amount you receive can vary significantly based on when and how you claim. Understanding the factors that affect your benefits and implementing strategies to maximize them is essential for optimizing retirement income and securing financial stability during your golden years. 1. …
Read More »2025-02-19
To appreciate the recent gold price surge, we discuss three critical factors. Money Supply—The chart below shows that the ratio of gold to the money supply (M2) and the money supply tend to follow each other, albeit gold prices are more volatile. The ratio is well extended as it was in 2011. In September 2011, …
Read More »2025-02-18
Egg prices were up nearly 19.5% in last Wednesday’s CPI report as the Avian flu wreaks havoc on the nation’s egg supply. Despite its inconsequential role in determining inflation, Eggflation is getting much publicity. Given the Eggflation fearmongering on social media, it’s worth putting some context on egg prices and their impact on CPI. Eggs …
Read More »2025-02-17
When planning for retirement, most people focus on savings, investments, and budgeting for daily living expenses. However, one critical component that often gets overlooked is an emergency fund. Having an emergency fund in retirement is essential for maintaining financial stability and peace of mind. Unexpected expenses, such as medical bills or home repairs, can derail …
Read More »2025-02-14
In mid-March, the government is expected to hit the debt ceiling. As has seemingly become the norm, dire threats from both political parties will start shortly. However, despite the fiery rhetoric, they often get resolved before the government shuts down. Might the coming fiscal standoff be a little different? Our colleague Greg Valliere, a long-time …
Read More »2025-02-13
The January CPI report was troubling as it rose more than expected. The monthly rate rose by 0.5%, about 0.2% above expectations. The core monthly rate was a tenth of a percent above expectations, at 0.4%. The year-over-year CPI rate rose to 3% from 2.9%. The latest CPI data argues inflation is stuck in a …
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Managing risk is one of the most critical aspects of successful investing. While all investments carry some degree of risk, effective investment portfolio risk management can help you preserve wealth, achieve financial goals, and weather market fluctuations. Understanding and employing strategies such as diversification, asset allocation, and hedging can significantly reduce your exposure to potential …
Read More »2025-02-12
The graphs below, courtesy of Truflation, are very telling. The Truflation US Inflation Index uses over 30 million data points to assess price changes and, as a result, provide a robust forecast for the BLS CPI number. Moreover, their data have proven to be an incredibly accurate forecasting tool. As we share in the graph …
Read More »2025-02-11
If one weren’t paying attention to the cryptocurrency market, one would think that all cryptocurrencies were doing well. For instance, meme coins are all the rage, and Bitcoin has been up about 50% since the election. Donald Trump and his pro-crypto rhetoric help explain the rally. Moreover, Trump has nominated pro-crypto people to serve important …
Read More »2025-02-10
Planning for retirement is one of the most important financial goals in life, yet it’s also one of the most complex. While creating a retirement plan on your own may seem feasible, the expertise of a financial advisor can make a significant difference. Financial advisors offer personalized strategies, help navigate complex financial decisions, and provide …
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Bond vigilantes had been questioning Janet Yellen’s debt management tactics in her role as Treasury Secretary. Specifically, they accused her of shifting debt issuance away from longer-term maturities and toward shorter ones. We think her strategy made sense. Yellen was issuing more debt where demand was the greatest and trying to limit the amount of …
Read More »2025-02-07
The Wall Street Journal published an interesting article For Small Cap Stocks, Look Past The Trump Trade. It is worth sharing the article’s premise and the potential pitfalls in the analysis as quite a few articles seem to be popping up recently touting small-cap stocks. Let’s start with the scatter plot below, courtesy of Fuery …
Read More »2025-02-06
Planning for retirement involves building a diverse and stable income strategy that ensures financial security throughout your golden years. Among the tools available, annuities in retirement planning offer a unique advantage: the ability to create a reliable, guaranteed income stream. However, understanding their types, benefits, and potential drawbacks is essential to determining whether they fit …
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When formulating its monthly employment data, the BLS includes an adjustment for the net number of new jobs coming from new businesses and those lost by companies that have shut down. This adjustment is logical, as neither new nor closing firms are included in their surveys. While the so-called birth death adjustment is rational, the …
Read More »2025-02-05
The newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), headed up by Elon Musk, is tasked with reducing government waste and increasing efficiency and productivity. The big question bond investors are keying on is how effectively DOGE can reduce the deficit. Tracking DOGE savings is now easy. As we share below, the US Debt Clock shows …
Read More »2025-02-04
Investors woke up Monday morning to a sea of red. On Friday, after the markets had closed for the weekend, President Trump announced a new series of tariffs levied against Mexico, Canada, and China. Moreover, he threatened that those tariffs could increase and that new tariffs would be announced for the Euro-region. Cryptocurrencies, technology, and …
Read More »2025-02-03
Securing your financial future begins with a comprehensive plan. This guide explores the fundamentals of financial planning, building a holistic strategy, and effective retirement techniques. Readers will learn how to navigate financial statements, manage tax planning, and engage with a financial advisor for wealth planning. Whether dealing with a single audit or seeking to enhance …
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The media holds bond vigilantes out as do-gooders looking to force the government to be fiscally responsible. In reality, these vigilantes are traders who are short bonds, and use the fear of deficits and inflation to drive yields higher. While the term has been around for 25+ years, their recent success is unlike any past. …
Read More »2025-01-31
An investor reading Microsoft’s (MSFT) and Tesla’s (TSLA) earnings summaries on Wednesday night would likely anticipate that MSFT shares would trade higher and Tesla shares lower. At the opening of the market the following day, the opposite held. MSFT opened up 4% lower, while TSLA was 4% higher. Let’s summarize their respective earnings to see …
Read More »2025-01-30
As expected, the Federal Reserve put further rate cuts on hold. After cutting rates three times in the latter half of 2024 for a total of 1%, the Fed is taking a break. While the Fed is still forecasting that inflation will trend lower by year-end, it is concerned that the trend has been stalling …
Read More »2025-01-29
Personal consumption represents over two-thirds of economic activity. Therefore, consumers’ ability to spend, i.e., income, is vital to the economy. Taking it one more step, confidence in the security of our jobs and wages drives the marginal consumption behaviors of most citizens. With that, we share a chart that should worry the Fed. The chart …
Read More »2025-01-28
Bloomberg wrote a fascinating article showing that the speculative environment gripping crypto markets and some stocks has spread to the junkiest of junk bonds. Their article, Traders Asking “Why Not?” Rush Into Venezuela and Lebanon Bonds, speaks to “a massive rally in emerging market junk bonds.” They focus on debt from Venezuela and Lebanon in …
Read More »2025-01-27
Tax efficiency is not just a buzzword—it’s a cornerstone of a successful financial plan. Every dollar you save on taxes is a dollar that can be reinvested, saved for retirement, or used to achieve your personal goals. Whether you’re planning for retirement, managing investments, or strategizing for future expenses, minimizing tax burdens can make a …
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Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are hitting record highs partly due to Donald Trump’s pro-crypto policies. One such anticipated policy proposal was the establishment of a strategic crypto reserve. Presumably, this would be similar to currency strategic reserves the US holds but would hold cryptocurrencies. The plan, announced Thursday night, calls the strategic crypto holdings a … Continue reading »
Read More »2025-01-24
The latest BLS and Cleveland Fed release of their quarterly new tenant rent index was lower by 2.43% year over year and over 5% from the prior quarter. The sharp rate of decline was surprising. Moreover, the update gives us more confidence that inflation is heading toward the Fed’s 2% target. Unlike CPI shelter prices, …
Read More »2025-01-23
Retirement is a time to enjoy the results of years of hard work and saving, but ensuring you have enough income to maintain your lifestyle is a challenge that requires careful planning. Effective retirement income planning focuses on creating a sustainable retirement income strategy that balances guaranteed income sources, investment growth, and the need to …
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With Donald Trump now officially President, we will learn which campaign promises were rhetoric and negotiating tactics and which he plans to enact. For many economists and nations, tariffs are at the top of the list of importance. China, in particular, closely followed by Canada and Mexico, appears to be at the most risk of …
Read More »2025-01-22
A reader of Tuesday’s Daily Commentary made a very astute comment. The title of the Commentary was “Trump Meme Coin Creates Billions Out Of Thin Air.” It doesn’t create anything… It transfers He is 100% correct. Meme coins and other forms of cryptocurrency do not create dollars. They transfer dollars from one person or entity …
Read More »2025-01-21
With markets closed over the long holiday weekend and Donald Trump’s inauguration and related politics taking center stage, no one thought the financial markets would make the headlines. They did. On Friday night, Donald Trump launched the largest meme coin in history. A meme coin is a cryptocurrency based on a meme. Like a baseball …
Read More »2025-01-20
The latest CPI inflation news was OK. The 0.4% headline increase is higher than in prior months but aligns with expectations. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is .1% lower than the consensus at .2%. The report relieved Wall Street as it did not show a resurgence in inflation. Stocks and bonds are trading much …
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Creating an estate plan is a critical step in protecting your legacy and ensuring your assets are distributed according to your wishes. Estate planning essentials like wills, trusts, and beneficiary designations provide clarity for your loved ones while safeguarding your financial legacy. Whether you have a large estate or modest assets, an effective plan can …
Read More »2025-01-17
Our Commentary from January 7, Outflows Of TLT Are Tremendous, discussed the ‘tremendous’ investor outflows of the bond ETF- TLT. While outflows are often associated with investors being bearish, that is not always true. Nonetheless, TLT is in a bearish trend, and indeed, some of the record outflows from TLT are due to the environment. …
Read More »2025-01-16
Retirement planning often focuses on saving and investing for daily living expenses, but healthcare costs can significantly impact your financial security. With longer lifespans and rising medical expenses, preparing for healthcare costs in retirement is essential. This guide explores projected healthcare expenses, the role of Medicare and supplemental insurance, and strategies for managing retirement healthcare …
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On Monday, the S&P 500 officially made a round trip back to the same levels as election eve. The equity rally that kicked off when Donald Trump won the election has been erased. The financial media blames the recent dump on prospects for wide-reaching tariffs and other policies. The reality is that higher bond yields …
Read More »2025-01-15
Fed rate cuts, tariffs, deficits, California wildfires, and other narratives bolster a growing concern that inflation will surge again. While those narratives are concerning, and some may have merit, market and survey-based inflation expectations do not confirm them. The Fed and almost all economists use two types of gauges to measure inflation expectations: surveys and …
Read More »2025-01-14
Warren Buffett’s company, Berkshire Hathaway, has about $325 billion in cash, accounting for over a quarter of its portfolio—the highest percentage in over 30 years. The question begging an answer is, what is worrying Warren Buffett? We believe the answer is valuations. We have shared numerous charts over the last few months showing how valuations …
Read More »2025-01-13
The initial reaction to Friday’s BLS jobs report was a yield surge and a sharp stock decline. Stock investors are finally noticing higher yields. While sentiment can certainly cause stocks and bonds to deviate from fundamentals, at the end of the day, they both have fundamental roots in economic activity. Over the past couple of …
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Planning for retirement is one of the most important financial tasks you’ll ever undertake. A comprehensive retirement planning strategy can help ensure you achieve your goals, maintain your desired lifestyle, and manage risks effectively. Whether you’re just starting or nearing retirement, this guide walks you through the essential steps to create a solid financial plan …
Read More »2025-01-10
The latest stock market bubble may be one of the shortest-lived bubbles in recent times. Quantum computing stocks rose in November and took off in December when Google touted the immense power of quantum computing. The following is from Google (LINK): Willow performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take one …
Read More »2025-01-09
When planning for retirement, choosing the right Individual Retirement Account (IRA) is a crucial decision. Traditional and Roth IRAs are two popular options, each with distinct advantages and limitations. Understanding the differences between traditional vs Roth IRA accounts will help you make an informed decision based on your financial situation and retirement goals. Contribution Limits …
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As we share below, bond market sentiment, known officially as the term premium, has been almost entirely responsible for the recent surge in bond yields. Specifically, behind the move is investor concern regarding another round of inflation stemming from the recent Fed’s rate cuts. The poor sentiment is very apparent when comparing news to a …
Read More »2025-01-08
Bloomberg led its article “Credit Markets Signal Warning for a Relentless Equity Rally” with the following paragraph: Stocks are close to the most overvalued against corporate credit and Treasuries in about two decades. The earnings yield on S&P 500 shares, the inverse of the price-earnings ratio, is at its lowest level compared with Treasury yields …
Read More »2025-01-07
Outflows from bond ETFs, such as TLT, have been tremendous over the last two months. ETFs, unlike mutual funds, allow dealers to redeem shares for the underlying securities and vice versa. The exchanges most often occur when the demand to buy or sell the ETF is high, thus creating a small arbitrage for the dealer. …
Read More »2025-01-06
Market volatility is an inherent part of investing, and while it can be unsettling, it’s not necessarily a bad thing. For disciplined investors, periods of market fluctuation present opportunities for growth and long-term wealth building. To navigate these uncertain times, understanding the causes of volatility, managing your emotional responses, and employing sound investment strategies are …
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Corporate executives are sending vastly different messages to their respective investors. Based on one indicator, they must be pretty bearish, yet another reeks of bullishness. Let’s take a look at corporate executives’ Jekyll and Hyde-like behavior and try to make some sense of their actions and what they might portend for their companies. As we …
Read More »2025-01-03
The percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the index on a rolling 21-day period fell below 15% late last year. That aligns with the record low set last July. Needless to say, the market’s breadth is historically horrendous. Last July, after months of significant outperformance by the mega-cap stocks, the poor market breadth corrected quickly. …
Read More »2025-01-02
While 20% gains in the S&P 500 are not uncommon, as circled below, back-to-back 20% gains have only occurred three times since 1950. The most recent back to back 20%+ gain was 2023 and 2024. Accordingly, given the rare performance of the last two years, lets look back and see what history teaches us. The …
Read More »2024-12-31
Over the past couple of weeks and into the next few weeks, you will likely be inundated with economic forecasts and stock market scenarios for 2025.
Read More »2024-12-30
Building wealth through investing requires a clear understanding of foundational principles and a disciplined approach to asset allocation. Whether you’re new to investing or looking to refine your strategy, this guide explores key investment strategies for wealth creation, offering insights on diversification, risk tolerance, and how to build a portfolio that aligns with your goals. …
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AI machine learning receives most of the publicity concerning today’s technological advancements, but the potential in quantum computing is just as exciting, if not more so. There’s a fundamental difference between quantum computing and AI. Artificial intelligence utilizes classical binary computing, where information is processed in bits, which can either be in an on or …
Read More »2024-12-27
2024 was an unbelievable year for the S&P 500 up 28% YTD. The index constituents’ average and median returns are 15.7% and 11.8%, respectively. Altogether, this year’s index returns dwarf the long-term average S&P 500 return of 7.9% since 1928. The Finviz heatmap pictured below shows the 2024 returns of the stocks in the index. …
Read More »2024-12-26
Planning for retirement is a lifelong process, but inflation can pose significant challenges to even the best-laid plans. Inflation slowly reduces the purchasing power of your savings, which can leave retirees struggling to afford the lifestyle they envisioned. Understanding the inflation impact on retirement and taking proactive steps to protect your retirement savings is critical …
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The Fed uses many inflation gauges to develop its forecasts. An important one that Powell has flagged many times is inflation expectations. However, there is a weakness in using inflation expectations as an input to the Fed’s forecasts. Inflation expectations are collected from two primary sources: markets and surveys. Both traders and individuals have political …
Read More »2024-12-23
Planning for retirement is a lifelong journey that evolves as you progress through different stages of life. A well-thought-out strategy not only ensures financial security but also helps you achieve the lifestyle you desire during your golden years. This retirement planning guide breaks down the process into manageable phases—from early career to post-retirement—emphasizing the importance …
Read More »2024-12-19
Creating a reliable income stream during retirement is essential to maintaining your lifestyle and achieving your financial goals. With longer lifespans and rising costs, having a clear plan for generating income is more important than ever. In this article, we’ll explore key retirement income strategies, including annuities, dividend-paying stocks, and bond ladders, and provide tips …
Read More »2024-12-16
When it comes to building long-term wealth, it’s not just about how much you earn but how much you keep. Taxes can significantly impact your investment returns, making tax-efficient investing a crucial component of any wealth accumulation strategy. By utilizing tax-advantaged accounts, employing strategies like tax-loss harvesting, and selecting tax-efficient funds, investors can reduce their …
Read More »2024-12-12
Retirement may seem like a distant milestone when you’re in the early stages of your career, with other financial priorities like paying off student loans, building an emergency fund, or saving for a home often taking center stage. However, starting your retirement planning early offers significant advantages that can make a profound difference in your …
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