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Incrementum Advisory Board Meeting, July 2016

 

 

Quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund

The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s advisory board was held on July 19. A pdf transcript of the discussion can be downloaded via the link below. We were once again joined by special guest Brent Johnson, the CEO of Santiago Capital.

When Will the Helicopter Take Off?

 

This time the debate revolved around the threat of “helicopter money”, which has become a lot more tangible after Shinzo Abe’s election victory and the aptly nicknamed Helicopter Ben’s visit to assorted Japanese GOSPLAN movers and shakers shortly thereafter.

As always though, a wide range of topics was discussed, including the current market views of the participants. Below is the latest chart of the proprietary  Incrementum inflation signal (a purely market-based signal that is more sensitive than the usual “inflation expectation” indicators), which continues to indicate that inflation-sensitive assets should be favored at present.

Helicopter Money

The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s advisory board was held on July 19. A pdf transcript of the discussion can be downloaded via the link below. We were once again joined by special guest Brent Johnson, the CEO of Santiago Capital. One topic: Helicopter money. - Click to enlarge

The new obsession of liquidity junkies around the globe: helicopter money! This should cement the “TINA” rationalizations for buying hopelessly overvalued stocks and bonds, right?

This is particularly interesting right now: Although inflation-sensitive assets have  rallied quite a bit, they are actually still trading at low levels historically. As we have pointed out in our own comment on the “helicopter money” threat (see “The Central Planning Virus Mutates” for details), price inflation seems to be on no-one’s radar right now, which makes expecting it a contrarian proposition well worth pondering (perhaps not in the short term, but certainly in the medium term).

If it were to appear on the scene, it would upset a great many plans, and ravage a great many portfolios. It would also boost portfolios prepared for the event though – as always, the formula “crisis = opportunity” applies.

Incrementum Inflation Signal

(see more for Incrementum Inflation Signal)

Incrementum Inflation Signal

The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s advisory board was held on July 19. A pdf transcript of the discussion can be downloaded via the link below. We were once again joined by special guest Brent Johnson, the CEO of Santiago Capital. One topic: Helicopter money. - Click to enlarge

In this context we would be remiss not to show you another chart from the transcript, which should be of great interest to gold bugs and those considering whether they should join the gold bugs. It shows the recent bull market in gold mining stocks compared to several historical bull markets. Naturally, this is not a guarantee for anything, but it is certainly interesting.

Bull Markets Compared

Bull Markets Compared

The quarterly meeting of the Incrementum Fund’s advisory board was held on July 19. A pdf transcript of the discussion can be downloaded via the link below. We were once again joined by special guest Brent Johnson, the CEO of Santiago Capital. One topic: Helicopter money. - Click to enlarge

 

 

Here is the download link the the transcript. Enjoy!

 

Incrementum/ AEGO Advisory Board Meeting, July 2016 (pdf)

 

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Pater Tenebrarum

Pater Tenebrarum is an independent analyst and economist/social theorist. He has been involved with financial markets in various capacities for 39 years and currently writes economic and market analyses for independent research organizations and a European hedge fund consultancy as well as being the main author of the acting-man blog.

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