The Year of Shortages & High Inflation

2022-05-16

(5/16/22) Markets put in a big bottom last week–at least for the short term. Even though markets finished down for the day on Thursday, they rallied back above the open, setting up a green candle, and establishing a test of the level at three standard-deviations from the 50-DMA. Friday’s subsequent rally pushed the index up to within two standard-deviations from the 50-DMA, and got close to triggering a money flow buy signal in a market that was still very over-sold. Establishment of this bottom now prepares the market for a rally up to the 20-DMA, currently on the SPY at 416-418. That level is the top of the current downtrend line, around 430 on the S&P. All of the elements are in place to create a rally back up to higher levels. Whan that happens, use this as an opportunity to reduce

2022-05-11

(5/11/22) Utopia vs Dystopia is like theory vs reality: Why the Government’s solution for fighting inflation never works; Should you buy the dip? Why buy the market bottom is a bear trap for investors; the best investment I ever made; what advisors are telling people that’s good and bad; recency bias and investor psychology; contrarian investing strategies; Benchmarking progress over a two-year span; Why you should get out of the market now.

[NOTE: Today’s show start was beset by technical gremlins, and the first segment is truncated.]
0:00 – Why Gov’t. Solutions for Inflation Don’t Work
10:20 – Danny’s Smoking Jacket
11:34 – Buying the Bottom: The Bear Trap for Investors
26:02 – The Best Investment I Ever Made
40:04 – Contrarian Strategies and Active Portfolio Management
49:32 – Why

2022-05-05

(5/5/22) Jerome Powell’s announced 50-basis-points rate hike was as expected–but the Fed added a dovish tone by slowing the rate of tapering on its balance sheet. With Professional and Retail investor sentiment at some of the lowest levels we’ve seen, and positioning very, very light in equities, the bit of good news was all Wall Street needed to stage a 3% rally, pushing up to resistance at the 20- and 50-DMA’s. If markets go there, that’s the signal to raise a little cash, take some profits, and clean up your act. We’re not quite out of the woods; with a short-term buy signal triggered, money flows positive, and the MACD starting to turn upward, this is the bullish octane markets need.

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent

2022-04-26

(4/26/22) Elon Musk is bidding to buy Twitter, and the board decides it’s not such a bad deal after all; did Elon over-pay? The Problem with taking Twitter private; the culture of Twitter, and how Elon can make money on it. Public reaction to the sale from Trump, Bezos; Chinese access to the towne square; who decides what’s disinformation? Why Twitter never forgets; platforms that share opinions and confirmation bias. Why it’s always important to read that with which you do not agree. Ford’s electric F-150, GM’s electric Corvette. Possible changes at Twitter; Why there’s no place to hide from the bear; why bond bull market is impending. Nicolas Cage/National Treasure: What did the FBI take from Finders Keepers? The Stupidity of Government; why we’re bullish on Bonds.
Hosted by RIA

2022-02-24

(2/24/22) Russia Invades Ukraine–what’s next? The Big Question for the US is what the Federal Reserve is likely to do in response–pausing rate hikes and balance sheet shuffling? The key point for investors is to not overreact as markets capitulate. The political implications of Russia-Ukrainian conflict-out comes unknown. It is interesting to see the effects on Gold and Bitcoin.

1:53 – How to React to Russian Invasion
13:18 – Fiscal Fallout of Russian Invasion: Historical Perspective
29:06 – Fed Calculations of Geopolitical Risk?
43:11 – Political Ramifications of Russian Invasion
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA
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Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: How Russian Invasion of Ukraine

2022-02-12

(2/11/22) With the bigger than expected 7.5% inflation print on Thursday, the next logical question is what will the Fed do? Why Inflation is going to be "sticky" for a while: Energy policy, public policy; when will price elasticity return? Is there an upside to Inflation: recession mentality, inflation mentality–similar to depression mentality of the ’30’s. The onset of Consumer Austerity. IRS Life Expectancy Tables have changed; what this means for your retirement; what happens when current tax law sunsets in 2025? Lunch & Learn recap, Retirement Right Lane preview; the economics of Valentine’s Day.

2:06 – What’s the Fed Going to Do Next?
13:05 – The Bright Side of Inflation
29:03 – What Changes in IRS Life Expectancy Tables Mean for You
43:18 – Lunch & Learn recap, Retirement Right

2022-02-09

Recipients of the Child Tax Credit have a surprise from the IRS; the Congressional stock trading ban gathers steam; Amazon’s base salary hike, and how to really fix the compensation gap. Why Markets haven’t gone anywhere since October; pat attention to the generals; the importance of portfolio risk sizing. Why Texas outperformed the rest of the nation in GDP during the pandemic; SMA’s and Tax Management tracking errors; "Uncle, Lance, where did mutual funds come from?"

1:37 – Child Tax Credit, Congressional Stock Trade Ban, Amazon Base Pay Hike (Lance’s Rant)
13:00 – Markets Going Nowhere Fast: The Importance of Risk Sizing
28:51 – The Economic Impact of Masking & Staying Home: Texas vs The Rest of Us
42:51 – Uncle, Lance–Where Did Mutual Funds Come From?

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief

2022-01-31

(1/31/22) Friday’s big rally finally triggered a buy-signal on the S&P 500, setting up an opportunity for portfolio rebalancing. We’ve been watching for a basing of markets along October’s lows… Friday’s performance suggests that we could see more of a rally. However, don’t be too surprised if this initially rally falters and establishes a new bottom before moving upwards again. A failure to establish that bottom at this time could set-up markets for a bigger decline–certainly within the realm of possibility if the Fed decides to become more aggressive with its planned rate hikes. We’re suggesting reduction of exposure, rebalancing risk, and take care in chasing the hard-asset trade as dis-inflationary pressure begin to emerge in economic data over the next few months. Watch the