How Will the Fed Rate Announcement Affect You?

2024-02-21

It’s Nvidia earnings reporting day, and as tech companies have driven markets of late, the results, and the company’s forward guidance, could have a huge effect. Earnings expectations are extremely high; risk of disappointment is high. The S&P is testing a rising trendline at the 20-DMA, against a negative divergence in relative strength. The dichotomy is unsustainable. The Conference Board releases latest survey of leading economic indicators, down for a 23rd consecutive month (but no one is expecting Recession!) What is keeping us out of Recession is remaining liquidity from government cash injections. No Recession because of "strong consumer spending," but is it, really? Spending more at the store, but buying the same or less. WSJ survey shows grocery spending as % of income at a

2024-02-13

(2/13/24) It’s CPI Day (the Consumer Price Index increased .3% in January; on an annualized basis, CPI dropped from December 3.4% to 3.1% for January.) Actors, do not lie on your application (especially involving roller skates and the Super Bowl Halftime!) Amazon hit with class action lawsuit over upcharge for ad-free viewing. Markets start Monday flat, spike a bit, and end flat. Correction is one day closer today than yesterday; why managing risk makes sense. That doesn’t mean going all to cash. Romance scams abound for Valentine’s Day; how might gasoline prices factor into today’s CPI print?

2:48 – CPI Day, Roller skates, & Amazon Prime snafu
14:29 – Why Managing Risk Makes Sense Now
30:03 – Why Not Go to Cash Now?
44:04 – Romance Scams & CPI Expectations

Hosted by RIA Advisors

2024-02-12

(2/12/24) Markets reached the magical 5,000 mark on Friday, and momentum will continue to carry investors forward, but for only so long; how we’re preparing for the eventual pullback. A correction of between 2% and 5%, and up to 10% would not be out of the realm of possibility, and normal in any year. The cost of housing remains a hot-button topic with both Millennials and Gen-Z. Lance runs the charts to demonstrate market dynamics and cause-and-effect of Fed manipulations; why Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s recipe for lower rates is a disaster in the making. Lowering interest rates is not the solution to lowering housing prices. Lower interest rates would bring more buyers into a market already short inventory, thereby increasing home prices. The Fed’s inflation expectations will be put to

2024-02-05

(2/5/24) Getting February underway with an "amazing" Employment Report (with seasonal adjustments!) Full Employment is trending downward; where did 4-million people go?? Interest Rate cuts have been pushed farther out in the year. Markets don’t care about economic reports’ details. Why Markets continue to do better: They’re focused only on the headline data. February is typically a weaker month: Will there be negative rates of return? A visit to Costco illustrates the bifurcated economy: The have’s vs the have-not’s. Almost all large-cap companies have reported Q4 earnings, and doing "well" (thanks to stock buy-backs). Lowered earnings per share estimates have resulted in higher "beat rates," but no one cares. Why stocks are popular hedges for retirees (with charts: See link below for

2023-11-17

(11/17/23) Richard Rosso’s adventures in Houston traffic, market seasonality and stock-bond correlation: Why would the Fed cut interest rates now? WalMart’s results: What are companies going to do during deflation? Richard calls the Butterball Turkey Hotline; spending survey results for 2023 & Consumer Sentiment indexes: Why are American’s still spending? The WalMart Parking Lot Indicator. Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is wrong about withdrawal rates. MorningStar: Dealing with higher fixed-income rates: not here to stay. Why the 4% Withdrawal Rate is back…for now. Sequence of Returns & Guaranteed Income when the withdrawal rate is not constant.

2:35 – Driving in Houston & Market Seasonality
13:51 – Butterball Turkey Talk Line
17:59 – Spending Results for 2023
29:57

2023-11-08

(11/8/23)
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Will Markets Retest Today?" is here: -NOraPNew&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Why You Cannot Invest Like Warren Buffett"
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"Bond Bear Market. Is It Dead, Or Just Hibernating?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-bear-market-is-it-dead-or-just-hibernating/
"Job And Retail Sales Data: Always Good Until They Aren’t"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/job-and-retail-sales-data-always-good-until-they-arent/
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Get more info & commentary:

2023-10-31

(10/30/23)

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Over-sold Markets are Under Pressure" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Reaching Your Hurdle Rate"
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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Register for our next Candid Coffee:
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SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow
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