How Tax Season Influences the Stock Market Annually – The Real Investment Show

2024-04-03

The JOLTS survey rate continues to slow, coincident with a slowing economy; interestingly, retail hiring has dropped sharply, despite increased retail demand (another example of divergent indicators). The data might not be as strong as we think. The difference between Fed promises and predictions can be vast. Markets remain in a "perfect" trend channel; what happens when the 20-DMA is broken? Commentary on the coming solar eclipse, and markets’ historic behavior following. What matters is what happens in the 12-months after such an event. Correction is coming. Answering emails: Stocks vs Bonds in current environment; managing risk is key. What happens to those in all-cash positions when rates fall? Gold & Silver may be doing very well, but are detached from current market reality; they

2024-03-27

The Sentiment Index is hanging in, despite weakening regional surveys; economists see no recession in sight; bank reserves have been rising since October 2022. End of quarter rebalancing is generating some activity; after three-days of selling, market futures are positive this morning. Watch markets’ steep angle of ascent; this is not sustainable, and correction will result sooner or later. Lance’s unique inflation indicator… Markets still act like there’s a flood of liquidity when there’s not; markets are bifurcated; Houston real estate is insane. Can Wall Street save your retirement? Larry Fink thinks so, or at least wants you to think he can; Blackrock & Merrill want to hold your money forever. Creation of Merrill’s Target Date Fund. Why Annuities are so lucrative; three reasons why

2024-01-11

(1/11/24) It’s Inflation Day (CPI clocked-in at +.03% month-over-month: How will the Fed React, and how might markets respond? Will the Fed end QT in May, and restart QE by Q3? Bond allocations & Media Trust. Q4 earnings season commences with a steep decline in earnings estimates. Spot ETF’s for Bitcoin launch today, thanks to SEC clearance. How much Bitcoin will actually be owned by ETF’s, and what will this do to the supply-demand dynamic? ETF options will add another layer of risk. How will markets react to increase in CPI? How will the Fed respond to the increase? Largest component is housing costs. Why the Fed is so bad at managing inflation. [Weather warning: Hard freeze coming to HouTx on Monday-Tuesday: We may be on Memorex!] Market expectations for interest rate easing and

2023-12-21

(12/22/23) Yep, we’re on vacation, but if you’re subscribed to this YouTube channel, you will be notified as our ‘Best-of’ show segments are premiered each morning at 6:00a CST while we’re away.
Also remember to register for our 2024 Economic Summit on January 27 at the Hotel Sonesta Houston, featuring Greg Valliere, special guest, Adam Taggart, plus Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts. It’s a live event only–no video recording will be made. Register today at this link:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator
Have a Merry Christmas, a safe holiday week, and a Happy New Year.
We’ll see you back here on Tuesday morning, January 2, 2024.
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➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:

2023-12-20

(12/20/23)
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What a Dollar Rally Could Do for the Markets ," is here:
&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Has Market Exuberance Gotten Out of Hand?"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=2&t=188s
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"Sell Cash, Buy Stocks As Powell Pivots?"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sell-cash-buy-stocks-as-powell-pivots/
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2023-12-12

(12/12/23) It’s CPI Day, and November inflation clocked-in at an expected rate of .1%, which now begs the answer to tomorrow’s question: Will the Fed do? A review of market performance vs portfolio performance: What metric are you using to measure success? Market history vs current market dynamics, and the investor conundrum" How "this time" could very well be different. We have seen a classical conditioning of the markets: The Fed always comes to the rescue. All you need to know about QE from Ben Bernanke in 2010. Al Gore is up in arms over no elimination of fossil fuels (which are necessary for life as we know it). Tik-Tok news and "adult" discussions; Poll: Are economic conditions getting worse? Data sources. Composites of the CPI: What matters more–CPI or Core CPI (what the Fed