4-15-24 Cracks Appear In The Market’s Bullish Armor

2024-04-10

It’s CPI Day (with m/m inflation clocking in with a .4% increase, and a y/y gain to 3.8%, hotter than expected). Sheila Jackson-Lee’s science experiment; the NFIB Survey does not bode well for small businesses:Sentiment falls to a new low based on poor sales. There remains a dichotomy between headline economic news and what’s happening behind the scenes. Markets break below the 20-DMA, but regain support. Why what really matters is the data the Fed looks at. Portfolio Spring Cleaning; Five or six ways to save Social Security (but first, a history of SS); the mathematical realities. Why Pensions face the same problems; how to fix it; lock it off. Any viable solution is un-electable. The IPO saga of Truth Social; IPO behaviors. Never buy an IPO out of the gate. DJT still has much to prove.

2024-04-09

Margin debt levels have surged as bullish investors leverage their bets in the equity market. The increase in leverage is not surprising, as it represents increased risk-taking by investors in the stock market. Unsurprisingly, as consumer confidence improves, so does the speculative demand for equities. As stock markets improve, the “fear of missing out” becomes more prevalent. Such boosts demand for equities, and as prices rise, investors take on more risk by adding leverage.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets"

2024-02-16

The Fed is in no rush to lower rates, based on the latest economic data; we’ve gone from transitory to permatory inflation; rents are not going to fall, but rates are not going to go up. Fed Gov. Bostick: Rates are not going down until later, based on Labor data. Candid Coffee preview: The problem with Financial Infidelity; does it pay to delay taking Social Security? (It depends…) What’s the best claiming strategy? Rich & Danny critique AI-generated Candy Hearts; why RMD’s are going to be trickier; the benefits of delay; impact of Roth conversions. What happened to the stretch-IRA?

2:38 – No Rush for Fed to Lower Rates
14:01 – The Problem of Financial Infidelity; Does it Pay to Delay taking SS?
29:48 – AI-generated Candy Hearts; Why RMD’s are Going to be Trickier
43:58 – Best

2024-02-08

(2/8/24) Fair warning, fellas: Valentine’s Day is one week away. What do all the numbers and charts really mean about the economy? Financial Obligation Ratio’s look great for the upper 10%, but for the rest of the population, they’re pretty dire. The markets don’t care. Are we over-paying for equities? Market internals are very different from the headline data. The S&P almost hit 5,000, thanks to the EFT draft effect. Will "good" economic data thwart the Fed’s rate policy? Bonds feed on inflation and where the market thinks inflation is going to be. Are we looking for a reprisal of 1970’s style inflation? (Why now is not then.) Money Supply affects inflation, and inflation begets inflation. The Fed "gets it," but the government does not.

1:59 – Valentine’s PSA; What the Charts & Numbers

2023-11-14

(11/14/23) This is the last, full week of trading before the holidays hit; What will drive today’s CPI number: Home owners’ equivalent rent. Can the S&P exceed Friday’s high? Markets are turning resistance into support, still no the backs of large cap companies; market is bifurcated vs mid- and small-cap companies. Oil Prices are under pressure; Gold is trading in a flat range. Markets are shrugging off bad news; spending bill needs to be done by Friday; Lance’s budget commentary, and what really happens when the government shuts down. Why Home Depot is a bellwether for consumer spending; The economy is likely slowing down even more than we know. Self-checking groceries in inflationary times: Shrinkage goes from 2% to 4%. The collision of what you need vs what you can afford. Shopping on

2023-11-01

(11/1/23)
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Financial Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Monday Market Rally: Was It Trick or Treat?" is here: _CU&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1
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Our previous show is here: "Wrapping Up October"
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"Possibilities Versus Probabilities"
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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Get more info & commentary:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
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