Lance Roberts
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2024-04-12
CFP testing results & commentary on professional credentialing; the importance of the Health/Wealth connection; the importance of continuing education (CE); a brief history of JP Morgan and "too big to fail." Inflation is permatory, not transitory. Profit margins are not great because costs are up. Jerome Powell is trying to put out a fire with a water pistol; how many ate cuts now? There is still too much money in the system to really tame inflation. Real Wages have peaked: Is this Jerome Powell’s "Volker Moment?" What clients "think" about portfolios is the toughest thing for advisors to manage. If Trump is elected, he will have to deal with the next recession. April is stress-awareness month; why we don’t sleep. Rosso’s Brooklyn paper route, Candid Coffee preview, & dealing with
2024-03-26
Baltimore Harbor is closed following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, hit by an out of control freighter. Weaker Regional Economic Surveys are in contrast to economists ratcheting-up growth expectations: No one is expecting a recession. Liquidity continues to boost bullish mood on Wall Street. The market has steadily climbed for past 5-months, creating record deviations; for now, no fear. Valuations are a measure of market psychology: "If everybody has bought, who is left to buy?" – Sam Stovall. When Technicals & Fundamentals align (the problem for most investors is that they’re too slow). All elements are now present for a reversion to the mean; just need a catalyst. What will turn buyers into sellers? The impact of more, earlier retirees on actuarial tables and Larry
2024-02-01
(2/1/24) Amelia Earhart was lost 83-years ago, and her missing plane may have been located in the Pacific Ocean, solving the mystery of her disappearance. The mystery of how the Fed operates, however, remains an enigma. And in 2024, there political implications the Fed must also consider (could Kennedy "Perot" the election?) Markets sold off after Jerome Powell promised no rate cuts anytime soon, but bonds had a good day as Treasury shifted stance in favor of longer-termed bonds. Elon Musk could move to Texas from Delaware just in time for Texas to secede. The markets’ response to Jerome Powell’s promise of no rate relief anytime soon; could Apple, Amazon, & Meta reports and subsequent performance could alter the dynamics of the Magnificent-7 to the Super-6 or Fab-5? What about the other
2024-01-24
(1/24/24) Netflix dominates the streaming space, once again; coming up: more rate increases. At what point do subscribers say, ‘enough,’ and revert to bundling? For Netflix, what is the customer acquisition cost? The Richmond Fed Index disappoints; Commentary on Bonds’ day-to-day moves: It’s just noise. Yields are not over bought. Danny Ratliff relates his home rehab hell and dealing with insurance adjusters (it’s a racket). The "joys" of home ownership. Netflix & the phenomenal NASDAQ decade; is this a "sus" market? HSA expansion plans & triple-tax benefit (if you can get it).Should all healthcare plans be high-deductible? How companies are reducing healthcare expenses. Japan’s just=in-time inventory management vs the US; No concern about supply chain disruptions from shutdowns. This
2024-01-23
(1/23/24) Expectations for volatility to pick up, as the risk of earnings warnings rise. Leading economic indicators have been negative for 21-months, yet where’s the Recession? What is the risk to outlook in earnings? The most stupid chart on the planet: All-time highs come in clusters (y’think?) Yep, and we’ll likely get another one today. How can markets be hitting all-time highs, and the majority of the public is quite pessimistic? Axios’ poll: The country is bummed out by the economy. Bitcoin performance, post-EFT? Increased volatility & net drawdowns. Give it a little more time.
2:55 – Earnings Season Marches On: What is the risk to earnings going forward?
14:23 – Event Tease | All-time Highs in a Bifurcated Market
30:07 – The Disconnect Between Markets and Most Americans
44:12 –
2024-01-11
(1/15/24) [NOTE: If you’re watching this video, we are dealing with The Great Ice Storm of 2024., and hope to be back in the studio, live, tomorrow. Or the next day…when ever things thaw.]
Lance reviews the conundrum of capital allocations in 2024: Wall St. doubles-down on bonds; will the Magnificent-7 lead again, or will last year’s underperformers? What if interest rates come down but inflation stabilizes at 3%? no push for the Fed to act (not what’s expected). What about the "in-between outcome?"
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Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the full show from which this excerpt was taken:
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Register for our 2024 Economic
2024-01-10
(1/10/24) Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Finanical Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Register for our 2024 Economic Summit: Navigating Markets in a Presidential Cycle:
https://www.eventbrite.com/e/ria-advisors-economic-summit-tickets-703288784687?aff=oddtdtcreator
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Missed It "By That Much"" is here:
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Our previous show is here: "Keep An Eye on Bankruptcies"
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Articles Mentioned in this Show:
"2024 Market & Economic Outlook According To Twitter"
2023-10-26
(10/26/23) Q3 GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.9% in the 3rd Quarter: It’s not uncommon to see an economic uptick in economic activity prior to a recession; however, not all is rosy: bankruptcies are surging. Wednesday was not a pretty day in markets, with confirmation of a break of support at the 200-DMA. Market expectations for GDP and the effects of inflation; what are the ramifications? The regional bank problem was a problem for all banks. Banks matter because we are a credit-driven economy. Lag effects generally take 5 to 9 quarters to emerge. A Zero-deficit = negative GDP. Government debt and deficits reduce economic growth. Market correction is underway, as predicted, and there is concern for markets for 2023. How best to reposition portfolios; what earnings are telling us. Bond
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