How Can Markets Be Bullish as Economy Slows?

2024-03-18

We are back from Vacation!
Over the last two weeks, the market’s advance has begun to taper off, and a more rounded top may be forming. While the 20-DMA continues to act as support, a violation of that level could well trigger additional selling. Momentum and relative strength have also shown continued weakness, and both registered “sell signals” on Friday.

Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Articles mentioned in this report:
"Full-Time Employment As A Recession Indicator?"
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The latest installment of our new

2024-03-08

Market Commentary: When will rate cuts hit? Biden’s SOTU Address: Get ready for higher corporate taxes and an inflation fight. The Death of the 4% Rule? Not yet…the impact of lower interest rates on a viable distribution plan; how to create one as Recession looms. Dealing with durations: Holding long-term bonds, but not to maturity. Credit risk in bonds, and the importance of portfolio fluidity. Distribution planning and timing: What are appropriate benchmarks for portfolio performance? Is the 60/40 portfolio dead? (No.) Why we may be at the peak of rate hike cycle; proactivity is the key. Is bailing on market volatility a loser’s game? Setting reasonable expectations for portfolio risk; what to do when the fundamentals are skewed. (Getting more "likes" than Lance.) Looking at Bond

2024-03-05

Economic Data releases and Fed speeches today will resonate with a rising commentary of no rate cut(s) this year, thanks to sticky inflation. Target’s earnings show the consumer is still spending; markets continue in 4-month advance, longest since 1970. Preceding a correction? Markets are operating in a narrow trend channel, with money rotating out of Magnificent Seven Stocks and into meme stocks. Markets are in the midst of bullish exuberance; Lance’s emails are the best contrarian indicator. Valuations are an indicator of sentiment; why FOMO trumps Fundamentals; rationalization and the numbers game: Making up metrics to rationalize valuation: We’re still paying too much for equities. Bitcoin & ETF’s: The Dark Side of the Coin. Shorting ETF’s adds an additional layer of volatility.

2024-03-04

Markets are entering the three strgonest months of the year; what if interest arwets aren’t cut? February was unusually strong for a "weak" month; what happens during Presidential Election years? Looking at Volatility risk. Markets have been up for 16 of the past 18-weeks; such activity generalluy heralds a correction. Warren Buffett’s annual letter: What do to with $160-B in cash? The dilemma of cash and valuations; cash held by corporations is at an all-time high; Buffett’s favorite metric is Market Capitalization to GDP Ratio. Why it’s hard to find "reasonably priced" companies. When investing becomes gambling; the risk of market correction coming. Dumb Money vs Smart Money: Teaching kids to invest, not gamble.

3:13 – Entering Three Strongest Months of the Year
14:31 – Warren

2024-02-22

Has Nvidia become the world’s most-valuable company? The S&P is aiming at more all-time highs, but can they hold? Fed minutes reveal no rush to cut rates. The disconnect with markets’ expecting more cuts. Will the Fed reduce QT as money flows into markets? Meanwhile, markets continue to test rising trendline at 20-DMA, as consolidation continues. No reason to be bearish on markets…yet. What markets missed from Fed Minutes: the quantity of rate cuts to come. An unexpected risk: Effects of balance sheet run-off as Fed adjusts QT to manage liquidity. The unstoppable market: What is happening to Fed’s repo program; the Fed Liquidity Index. Have we returned to a bubble in Magnificent Seven stocks (and are they worthy of current valuations)? The hard part about managing portfolios: How does

2023-12-13

(12/13/23) CPI came in right on the money, and now attention turns to the Fed meeting today, and tomorrow’s comments from Chairman Jerome Powell. What does the Fed want: Inflation vs deflation vs disinflation; yields need to come down; meanwhile markets continue to climb setting new highs, but not new record-highs. The Elf on the Shelf explained; embodiment of The American Dream; cost now more than ever, unless you create it; what the American Dream is NOT; the value in learning a trade; defining your personal American Dream; how to beat the high cost of the American Dream (The Millionaire Next Door); baby cribs, diamond rings, & funeral costs.

2:17 – CPI on the Money; Fed Day Reveal
13:48 – The Elf on the Shelf & The American Dream, Pt. 1
29:29 – The Elf on the Shelf & The American

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(12/11/23) Friday’s employment report was not great: comprised pf mostly striking workers returning to the job; factor out anomalies, and it was a very weak report: Weak enough for markets to hope for Fed to further pause rate hikes? What will the Fed say on Wednesday? The risk of correction from a hawkish Fed. Markets set new highs for 2023 but remain at zero for the past 22-months. The end of the buyback window; when the buying stampede is over. Managing money is a game of inches. Is the ‘American Dream’ really dead? Ten steps to achieve the ‘American Dream;’ age discrimination in the extreme.

2:58 – Why the Employment Report Disappointed
14:35 – Managing Money is a Game of Inches
30:13 – The ‘American Dream’ is not Dead
44:11 – Ten Steps to Achieve the ‘American Dream’

Hosted by RIA

2023-11-17

(11/17/23) Richard Rosso’s adventures in Houston traffic, market seasonality and stock-bond correlation: Why would the Fed cut interest rates now? WalMart’s results: What are companies going to do during deflation? Richard calls the Butterball Turkey Hotline; spending survey results for 2023 & Consumer Sentiment indexes: Why are American’s still spending? The WalMart Parking Lot Indicator. Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is wrong about withdrawal rates. MorningStar: Dealing with higher fixed-income rates: not here to stay. Why the 4% Withdrawal Rate is back…for now. Sequence of Returns & Guaranteed Income when the withdrawal rate is not constant.

2:35 – Driving in Houston & Market Seasonality
13:51 – Butterball Turkey Talk Line
17:59 – Spending Results for 2023
29:57