The Herd is Generally Wrong at Market Tops & Bottoms

2024-03-08

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2024-02-21

It’s Nvidia earnings reporting day, and as tech companies have driven markets of late, the results, and the company’s forward guidance, could have a huge effect. Earnings expectations are extremely high; risk of disappointment is high. The S&P is testing a rising trendline at the 20-DMA, against a negative divergence in relative strength. The dichotomy is unsustainable. The Conference Board releases latest survey of leading economic indicators, down for a 23rd consecutive month (but no one is expecting Recession!) What is keeping us out of Recession is remaining liquidity from government cash injections. No Recession because of "strong consumer spending," but is it, really? Spending more at the store, but buying the same or less. WSJ survey shows grocery spending as % of income at a

2024-02-13

(2/13/24) It’s CPI Day (the Consumer Price Index increased .3% in January; on an annualized basis, CPI dropped from December 3.4% to 3.1% for January.) Actors, do not lie on your application (especially involving roller skates and the Super Bowl Halftime!) Amazon hit with class action lawsuit over upcharge for ad-free viewing. Markets start Monday flat, spike a bit, and end flat. Correction is one day closer today than yesterday; why managing risk makes sense. That doesn’t mean going all to cash. Romance scams abound for Valentine’s Day; how might gasoline prices factor into today’s CPI print?

2:48 – CPI Day, Roller skates, & Amazon Prime snafu
14:29 – Why Managing Risk Makes Sense Now
30:03 – Why Not Go to Cash Now?
44:04 – Romance Scams & CPI Expectations

Hosted by RIA Advisors

2023-12-14

(12/14/23) Throwing caution to the wind, a dovish FOMC takes the bearish stance away from markets; markets are forming a cup-and-handle pattern, suggesting a rally to record-highs; but that does not preclude a 3- to-5% correction. Bond yields are to fall. Out of control tipping; how the Fed trained investors to expect backup; the Fed’s pivot to dovishness: What do they know that we do not? The benefits of lower rates vs risk of more inflation; financial conditions are easing. Look for a huge short-cover rally, and then get ready for correction. But first, more record-highs. Bullish vs bearish commentary; a look at the FRED database; the key phrase is "effective rate." Excess liquidity is leaving the system; where will the Fed turn when it needs more money? THe Fed is still doing QT,

2023-12-11

12/27/23) Hate those self-checkout registers at the store? Merchants are discovering they might be costing more in "shrinkage" than is being saved by fewer employees working registers. Lance addresses the problem with self-checkout & retail theft; creation of more inflation; Gen-Z’s five-finger discount habit.
Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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Watch the full show from which this segment was excerpted on our YouTube channel:
&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2656s
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The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Begin Year-End Gyrations" is here: &list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1&t=4s
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Our previous show is here: "Is the

2023-11-28

(11/28/23) After a protracted Thanksgiving break, Danny and Jonathan preview markets and economic releases this week, along with Fed minutes & holiday spending trends: Thanksgiving wasn’t cheap, and Christmas is going on credit cards. The rate of inflation may be lower, but prices are still going up. Holiday chaos, hippie cookies (sorry, Michelle), and what to do with extra cash? Will rates be lower next year? Defining the Yield Curve (and wy it matters); The Hierarchy of Savings; what’s your number? Taxes are about to change (revert higher) in 2025; What’s the difference between a Roth IRA & Roth 401k?
2:32 – Market Review, Economic Preview, Christmas on Credit
13:59 – Holiday Chaos, Hippie Cookies, & Extra Cash
29:53 – Defining the Yield Curve; What’s Your Number?
43:50 – Roth IRA vs

2023-11-20

(11/20/23) A look at the highest-grossing horror films of all time, and holiday week markets: July’s market exuberance was followed by a predicted decline into October, which was entirely normal for any given year. Now markets are over bought, and another pullback is imminent, likely between now and next week. Meanwihle, with many traders on holiday, silly season has descended upon Wall street. Portfolio managers will be rebalancing for end-of-year reporting and distributions. How will 2024 fare? Consumer Spending will be the driver. Automobiles & airfares are cheaper than one year ago; can these help create an "updraft" for the economy? There’s no slowdown in activity…yet. Coming will be holiday retails sales & Black Friday; the Roberts’ Christmas Wish Lists. Market preview; Gold

2023-11-17

(11/24/23)Withdrawal Rates & Recency Bias: Why Dave Ramsey is wrong about withdrawal rates. MorningStar: Dealing with higher fixed-income rates: not here to stay. Why the 4% Withdrawal Rate is back…for now. Sequence of Returns & Guaranteed Income when the withdrawal rate is not constant.
NOTE: This presentation includes video originally lost due to technical issues on the day the show was originally streamed.
0:00 – Teaser
1:03 – Withdrawal rates & Recency Bias: Ramsey is Wrong
7:43 – That part you may have missed…
12:20 – Sequence of Returns Risks & Guaranteed Income

Hosted by RIA Advisors’ Director of Financial Planning, Richard Rosso, CFP, w Senior Financial Advisor Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
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These segments are excerpted from a