by Lance Roberts
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| The market $SPY $QQQ has climbed relentlessly despite years of bearish headlines—wars, inflation, rate hikes, and constant crash predictions—because price isn’t driven by fear, it’s driven by earnings expectations. As long as forward earnings continue to rise, markets tend to grind higher, regardless of noise. Most risks people react to are already known and priced in, meaning reacting emotionally to news often leads to poor decisions. The reality is simple: the market aggregates more information than any individual investor. Instead of trying to outguess it with headlines, the edge comes from following price, trend, and supply-demand signals. No earnings breakdown, no sustained bear market. Respect the trend, manage risk, and don’t fight what price is clearly telling you. I 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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Many investors consider a 20% drawdown or more to be a bear market. Based solely on that definition, the table below, courtesy of Morgan Stanley, shows that 42%, or over 200 of the S&P 500 members, are in a bear market. For context, the S&P 500 is only down 4% from its 52-week record high, …
ISM Manufacturing Supports Reflationary Forecasts
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Over the last couple of weeks, we have shared evidence that supports the reflationary narrative and some that defies it. Today, we share the latest ISM Manufacturing data, which lends credence to the reflationary narrative. The ISM Manufacturing survey showed a big improvement in sentiment, as shown below. The gauge shot up 4.7 to 52.6, …
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Bears Are An Endangered Species
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🔎 At a Glance 🏛️ Market Brief – Market Volatility Returns Markets ended the week mixed as investors processed the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, rising geopolitical tensions, and the early results of the S&P 500 earnings season. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75 percent, as expected. Chair Jerome Powell maintained …
1-28-26 The Narrative Trap: How Investors Justify Buying Silver Higher
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📺Full episode: -IGAw
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Does AI Capex Spending Lead To Positive Outcomes?
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As someone who views corporate finance through a pragmatic lens, I’ve been closely watching the current surge in capital expenditures (capex) tied to artificial intelligence (AI). The question I’m addressing here is this: when a company spends massive amounts of free cash flow and takes on increasing debt, in this case for AI CapEx, does …
Hawkish Or Less Dovish? QE Or Not QE?
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There is a growing divergence of views among FOMC members. Some remain dovish, favoring more rate cuts. Their argument is based on a belief that inflation will continue to move toward the 2% target and that the weakening labor market benefits from lower interest rates. On the other side of the aisle are hawkish views. …
12-8-25 Bull Case for 2026: Liquidity, Fed Cuts & Market Support
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