by Lance Roberts
My articles My offerMy siteAbout meMy videosMy books
Follow on:TwitterSeeking AlphaFacebookAmazon
| Rising gas prices may finally be starting to crack the consumer. Walmart’s $WMT earnings weren’t terrible overall. Revenue came in slightly better than expected and the stock reaction was fairly muted. But the real focus was management lowering guidance and pointing directly to higher fuel costs impacting both the company and its customers. That matters because Walmart serves the lower and middle-income consumer. If shoppers are becoming more frugal there, it’s an important signal for the broader economy. The were several warning signs already building beneath the surface: – Rising credit card delinquencies – Increasing default rates – Student loan repayment pressure – Savings rates near record lows – Consumers trading down and cutting discretionary spending This is where the idea of “demand destruction” starts to matter. High #crudeoil and gasoline prices are initially inflationary, but if they stay elevated long enough, they eventually slow economic activity by squeezing consumers. People spend more at the pump and less everywhere else. That slowdown can ultimately become disinflationary as weaker demand pressures commodity prices lower over time. Right now, markets still seem to believe the pressure is temporary. But if oil stays above $100 and gas remains near $5 for an extended period, the impact on spending, growth, and consumer health could become much more significant. #Walmart may be giving one of the first real warnings that the process has already started. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
You Might Also Like
5-15-26 Oil Shock or Real Inflation? What CPI Is Actually Saying
2026-05-15
The recent CPI inflation data may be more about geopolitics and energy shocks than a structurally overheating economy.
The Iran conflict and the resulting spike in oil prices are distorting inflation readings, creating what could ultimately prove to be a temporary or “transitory” inflation surge rather than the beginning of a sustained 1970s-style inflation spiral, as many believe now.
Oil price is the key driver behind the latest CPI pressures. Because it impacts nearly every layer of the economy — transportation, fertilizer, plastics, shipping, manufacturing, and even restaurant operating costs, which eventually filter into consumer prices.
In that sense, inflation is not isolated to gasoline alone, even if gasoline is the most direct CPI driver tied to oil prices.
These
The Fed Is Losing Its Biggest Dove
2026-05-15
Jerome Powell’s term as Fed Chairman expires this Friday, with Kevin Warsh now confirmed by the Senate as his successor. The transition has implications beyond a change in the Fed’s leadership. Further, Stephen Miran, who was appointed Fed Governor in September 2025 to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler, is seeing his term come …
5-13-26 Use Berkshire As A Hedge But Don’t Miss This Market
2026-05-13
Berkshire Hathaway $BRK remains a solid long-term holding, but it’s lagging in today’s market due to limited AI exposure and a large cash position that drags on returns during bull runs that we have now.
That same cash, however, makes it a useful hedge in a risk-heavy portfolio, offering downside protection when markets pull back.
The recent leadership transition from Warren Buffett to Greg Abel adds another layer of uncertainty that may take time for investors to fully price in.
This isn’t a reason to avoid Berkshire, but it does explain the underperformance.
At the same time, sitting in cash waiting for a big correction is risky, as any pullback is likely to be shallow and short-lived right now unless something big happens.
A better approach is to gradually deploy capital
Rallies Can Be Exit Traps After Selloffs
2026-02-09
➢ Listen daily on Apple Podcasts:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-real-investment-show-podcast/id1271435757
➢ Watch Live Mon-Fri, 6a-7a Central on our Youtube Channel:
www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow
➢ Upcoming personal finance free online events:
https://riaadvisors.com/events/
➢ Sign up for the Newsletter:
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/
➢ RIA SimpleVisor: Analysis, Research, Portfolio Models, and More.
https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new
Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com
Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN
https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice
https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts
https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/
https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/
#Markets #Money #Investment_Advice
Value or Growth Is Not A Debate, Its An Opportunity
2026-02-06
At the start of 2026, we introduced our Factor Rotation Model. The model summary below was posted in SimpleVisor: We launched a new model on January 2nd called the Factor Rotation Model. Historically, the performance of value and growth factors relative to the S&P 500 exhibits a strong negative correlation. Michael Lebowitz provided an overview …
2-4-26 Q&A Wednesday: Your Questions, Real Answers
2026-02-04
Today’s live YouTube Chat Q&A covers the full spectrum—earnings season takeaways, the selloff-to-rebound pattern, and the big debate around Big Tech, AI, and margins. We walk through where tech and AI leadership stand now, whether AI is pressuring software profitability, and the “real world” constraint markets may be underpricing: power demand (including what ERCOT could mean for data-center expansion).
We also hit the energy transition angle—why wind/solar intermittency matters, the critical minerals push, and why fundamentals still matter when narratives run hot. On the positioning side, we discuss whether metals look oversold, how to think about “rebound rallies,” and why investor discipline (process, rebalancing, and risk controls) beats chasing headlines.
Finally, we shift to
Japan Is Normalizing: Risks To The Yen Carry Trade
2026-02-04
“Japan Bond Meltdown Sends Yields to Record High on Fiscal Fears,” read a January 2026 Bloomberg article. Headlines like this, and many others, warn that Japan’s abrupt interest rate increase is an omen of dire trouble. While that may be the case, given decades of economic woes, declining demographics, and extreme levels of outstanding debt, …
A Third Of US Debt Matures In 2026
2025-12-12
We received the following question from a client: “I was at a conference where they showed that roughly a third of the currently existing US Government debt is set to mature in the next few years. How can we pay it back?” A third of the approximately $30 trillion in US Treasury debt equates to …
Tags: Featured,newsletter
