by Lance Roberts
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| Markets continue pushing higher despite rising geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, but are investors becoming too complacent? Lance Roberts & Jon Penn break down the biggest risks we are monitoring right now, including oil price shocks, inflation pressures, interest rate implications, and the potential catalysts that could finally interrupt this powerful market rally. We’ll discuss which geopolitical and market risks matter most, how portfolio positioning changes during periods of elevated uncertainty, and why stretched market momentum may leave stocks vulnerable to unexpected events. We’ll also examine whether markets are underpricing the potential economic consequences of a broader Middle East escalation. Here's a topical rundown of today's show: 0:00 - INTRO 1:08 - NVIDA Preview 4:39 - 7-Weeks of Advances, Correction's Coming 9:31 - Staying Up Late... 11:39 - What is the Biggest Risk? 15:59 - How Might Markets Test New Fed Chair? 20:32 - There is Never a Perfect Time to Invest 25:03 - What to Do with All That Cash? 26:30 - Timing the Market to Lance's Vacations 27:55 -Everyone is Looking for a Catalyst 29:23 - Why You Shouldn't Buy an IPO (How they really work...) 33:39 - S&P and NASDAQ Rule Changes 36:17 - New 401k - Target Date Funds or S&P 500? 40:57 - What's the Best Index Fund? 42:11 - Why Commissions were Good For Markets 43:38 - Be like "Frozen" and Let it Go 44:42 - Managing Multiple Investment Account Structures - Keeping Meat on the Bone Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/YT_BHXcoydw ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" feature, "Bull Market Reality Check," here: ------- Watch our previous show, "Market Leadership is Narrow" https://youtu.be/-HT6wtmOzjw ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "A SimpleVisor Tutorial," Thursday, June 4, 2025 at Noon: https://streamyard.com/watch/MwairsimgmnS -------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #BullMarket #MarketCorrection #FederalReserve #Investing #Iran #StockMarket #Investing #OilPrices #MarketRisk |
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The Market Knew And Proved It Again
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On Monday, our Commentary, The Market Knows What You Don’t, shared an important lesson about how markets function. The message was timely, as fear and volatility over the prior few weeks had caused great anxiety among many investors. We wrote the following to help investors maintain a north star during these challenging times: Market prices …
2-26-26 Software Stocks: Steal or Zero
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Is AI killing software stocks — or creating the buying opportunity of the decade?
Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz review: Since peaking in September 2025, the software ETF (IGV) has crashed 30% while semiconductors (SMH) surged 30% and broad tech stayed flat. The market is pricing in a "SaaSpocalypse" — the idea that generative AI will make traditional SaaS companies obsolete. But is that narrative right?
Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP
Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer
Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo
0:00 – INTRO
0:49 – National Chili Day & Demise of Whataburger
3:04 – Nvidia & SalesForce Report
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Our Take On Tariffs
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To address the many emails we received, we present our take on the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling. First, President Trump has multiple ways he can implement trade restrictions beyond what the Supreme Court ruled against. In fact, he implemented a 150-day 15% global tariff after the court’s ruling. As we share below, the effective tariff …
1–9-26 Why This QE Won’t Send Stocks “To the Moon”
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This QE is not the kind that launches stocks into a runaway bull market.
In this Short video, Michael Lebowitz and I discuss why today’s liquidity injections are far smaller than past cycles and why headline charts are overstating their impact.
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Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
1-8-26 2026 Market Forecasts: Why Wall Street Gets It Wrong
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Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explain why year-ahead market forecasts are largely an exercise in false precision. Instead of offering a price target with zero confidence, we walk through the key forces that are likely to shape markets in 2026—including stretched valuations, liquidity injections disguised as “reserve management,” the Federal Reserve leadership transition, midterm elections, fiscal uncertainty, AI-driven capital spending, tariffs, geopolitics, and rising sovereign debt risks.
We also examine historical market behavior to provide perspective on drawdowns, winning streaks, and why valuations are a poor short-term timing tool but an excellent long-term risk signal. Finally, we discuss why flexibility, discipline, and risk management matter far more than guessing an index
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Bill Dudley, a respected economist and President of the New York Fed during the Financial Crisis, penned a Bloomberg editorial outlining six challenges facing the Fed in 2026. Given his deep background in economics and intimate knowledge of the Fed, it’s worth providing a brief summary of his views. Independence is at the top of …
1-6-26 The Most Dangerous Risk Is The One No One Sees
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Markets don’t crash on risks everyone is watching—they’re already priced in and hedged.
In this Short video, Lance Roberts explains why the real danger is an unexpected shock that forces earnings lower and triggers a rapid repricing of valuations.
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Catch Lance daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow
1-5-26 2026 Market Outlook: Bullish Momentum, Valuation Risks, and What Comes Next
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Markets closed 2025 with strong gains, but the path forward into 2026 is far more nuanced than headline optimism suggests.
Lance Roberts reviews what drove 2025’s market performance, why the Santa Claus Rally failed, and how shifting inflation trends, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and valuation levels are shaping market outlooks for 2026.How can investors navigate the New Year with realistic expectations, disciplined risk management, and diversified positioning, recognizing that returns may come with higher volatility than recent years.
0:00 – INTRO
0:19 – Maduro Impact on Oil; What’s Next for New Year?
4:42 – No Santa Rally!
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14:13 – Base Portfolio Management in Terms of a Range of Outcomes
20:02 – The Risk of Disappointment
24:00 – Full Time
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