The Dollar’s Plumbing: Conspiracy Vs. Data
2026-03-20
Every few months, a headline appears declaring that the U.S. dollar’s reign as the world’s reserve currency is over. China is dumping Treasuries. Central banks are hoarding gold. The BRICS are building a new monetary order. The sanctions that froze $300 billion of Russia’s reserves in 2022 proved, the argument goes, that dollar-denominated assets are …
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Treasury Bond Yields Don’t Lie: But Wars Don’t Drive Them
2026-03-16
This past weekend, Adam Taggart and I discussed what happens to Treasury bond yields when the United States enters a military conflict. The conventional wisdom is reflexive and tidy. A conflict triggers a flight to safety, money floods into U.S. government bonds, and yields fall. It’s a clean narrative. Unfortunately, it is wrong more than …
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The Energy Sector Is Outpacing Energy Prices
2026-01-29
Over the last year, energy stocks have traded well despite crude oil prices languishing. For instance, over the last six months, XLE, the energy ETF, has risen 14%, while crude oil prices have fallen by 12%. The two largest components of XLE, Exxon and Chevron, which account for 40% of the ETF, are up 30% …
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The Bullish And Bearish Case For 2026
2026-01-26
The year ahead presents both a bullish and bearish case for investors. Will 2026 be another year of above-average returns, or will it be a year of disappointment? The bulls argue that the key ingredients for a sustained rally are in place. A powerful technology cycle, aggressive corporate spending, and supportive policy measures all point …
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1-23-26 Why Strong Growth Could Force the Fed to Pause or Even Hike
2026-01-23
Everyone expects strong economic growth, falling inflation, and endless Fed cuts.
In this short video, Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz discuss why that combo is far from guaranteed—and how a pause (or even hike) could hit valuations fast.
📺Full episode:
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