by Lance Roberts
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| AI itself isn’t the real threat to the economy. The real risk is how quickly it replaces jobs before workers and industries can adapt. Data already shows that higher AI adoption is driving productivity up while putting pressure on wages and reducing the need for labor. That trade-off becomes dangerous if income falls faster than new opportunities are created, weakening consumer spending that drives growth. The outcome depends on speed: a gradual shift allows adjustment, but rapid displacement could destabilize the entire system. 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRealInvestmentShow |
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3-8-26 Why Passive Investing Isn’t Really Passive & Why It Matters
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Passive investing is often misunderstood. Many investors believe buying ETFs makes them passive, but frequent trading, sector rotation, and performance chasing turn it into active behavior.
Instead of picking individual stocks, investors are actively trading baskets of stocks.
As the late John Bogle warned, the ability to trade ETFs intraday encourages investors to act on emotion and timing decisions.
The result is that many “passive” investors still underperform the market over time.
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Credit Spreads Are Widening: Omen Or No Bother?
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Increasing corporate credit spreads, or a growing divergence between corporate bond yields and similar-maturity Treasury yields, can be an omen of stock market weakness. Recent troublesome defaults in the private credit markets are showing signs of spreading concern to the more liquid corporate debt markets. Thus, it’s appropriate to review corporate credit spreads. in the …
3-4-26 Iran Conflict: What It Means for Oil, Inflation, & The Dollar
2026-03-04
Geopolitical tensions with Iran sparked fears that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices sharply higher. But markets have been calmer than expected. After briefly spiking above $80, oil pulled back to around $74 as Trump’s response helped stabilize shipping risks.
While higher oil prices could temporarily push up gasoline prices and create short-term inflationary pressure, energy is not the primary driver of the CPI, which remains dominated by housing costs.
Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty has supported the U.S. dollar $DXY, as global investors typically move capital into the world’s most liquid reserve currency during periods of conflicts and high risk.
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1-13-26 The Economic Reflation Narrative Is Back
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The economic reflation narrative is back—but is it durable or just another market storyline driven by optimism and liquidity?
Lance Roberts explains what investors mean by “economic reflation,” why markets are once again pricing in stronger growth, and which data points are reinforcing the bullish case. We examine the role of monetary policy shifts, fiscal spending, labor market dynamics, and commodity trends that are supporting expectations for improving earnings and profitability.
Just as importantly, we address the risks to the reflation narrative. Sticky inflation, slowing global growth, tighter financial conditions, and policy missteps could all challenge the assumption that reflation is sustainable. Markets often price in best-case outcomes long before the data confirms them—and
Bitcoin Isn’t as Scarce as You’ve Been Told
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In this short video, Parker White, CFA from @defidevcorp and I discuss how #Bitcoin infinite fractionalization mirrors monetary expansion and why the real advantage comes from who gets new money first, not just how much money exists.
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Permanent Job Losers: A Worrying Facet Of Today’s Economy
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Given the two-month delay, Thursday’s BLS employment report on September labor market conditions was not nearly as pertinent as the BLS data typically is. Despite it being old news, it is worth sharing that the number of jobs increased by 119k, but the unemployment rate ticked up from 4.3% to 4.4%. The markets didn’t seem …
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