Tag Archive: #USD

FX Daily, November 22: Bonds and Stocks Rally, Leaving Greenback to Meander

2016-11-22

by

2016-11-22

FX Performance, November 22 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar entered a consolidative phase yesterday, and this carried into today's activity.While the foreign exchange market is sidelined as the two-week trend slows, the stocks and bonds are posting strong gains today. Equities are being led by energy and materials, as oil and industrial metals continue to advance. Bond are recovering from their recent slide.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 21: Flattish Consolidation Hides Dollar Strength

2016-11-21

by

2016-11-21

FX Performance, November 21 2016 Movers and Shakers
The news over the weekend is primarily political in nature. Sarkozy is going to retire (again) after taking a drubbing in the Republican Party primary in France. Fillon, the self-styled French Thatcher unexpected beat Juppe, but without 50% and therefore the results set up the run-off this coming weekend. It is as if, knowing their candidate will likely face Le Pen in the final round next spring, the Republican Party might as well chose the most...

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Shifting Paradigms and the Market Adjustment

2016-11-21

by

2016-11-21

Perceptions of two trends shape the investment climate: reflation and nationalism. Fed rate hike set for next month, barring significant surprise. Japan's trade surplus is growing even as imports and exports continue to contract.

Read More »

If TPP is Dead…

2016-11-20

by

2016-11-20

Tpp
TPP may be dead, but China is spearheading an alternative regional free trade deal. It is not as ambitious as the US-led TPP. China and Russia are eager to re-establish spheres of influence.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 17: Consolidation Gives Dollar Heavier Tone

2016-11-17

by

2016-11-17

FX Performance, November 17 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar is trading with a heavier bias today as its recent run is consolidated. The euro is trying to snap the eight-day slide that brought it to nearly $1.0665 yesterday, the lows for the year. It is almost as if participant saw the proximity of last year's lows ($1.0460-$1.0525) and decided to pause, perhaps to wait for additional developments, such a Fed Chief's Yellen's testimony before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 16: The Greenback Remains Resilient

2016-11-16

by

2016-11-16

FX Performance, November 16 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar remains bid. It is at its year high against the euro and five-month highs against the Japanese yen. Sterling, which has performed better recently, remains in the trough around 30-year lows. It surge since the election reflects three considerations. The first is December Fed hike. Prior to the election, the market was assessing around a two-thirds chance. Now both the CME and Bloomberg's WIRP estimate the odds above 90%....

Read More »

FX Daily, November 15: Investors Catch Breath, Markets Consolidate

2016-11-15

by

2016-11-15

FX Performance, November 15 2016 Movers and Shakers
After a dramatic run since the US election, the capital markets are consolidating today. It is a bit too restrained to such a Turn Around Tuesday is unfolding. The euro is struggling to sustain corrective upticks through $1.08, and after a pullback is, the greenback pushed back above the JPY108 level like a beach ball held under water.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 14: Dollar Steps Up to Start Week

2016-11-14

by

2016-11-14

FX Performance, November 14 2016 Movers and Shakers
The US dollar rally that moved into a higher gear in the second half of last week has begun the new week with a bang. It is up against nearly all the major and emerging market currencies. Even sterling, which last week, managed to eke out modest gains against the greenback is under pressure today.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement

2016-11-13

by

2016-11-13

US election results accelerated forces that were already present. Interest rates have appeared to bottom, fiscal stimulus in Canada and Japan already evident, and divergence between US and EMU/Japan monetary policy. US stimuli may reach when the economy is already near trend.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Growth in Federal Spending

2016-11-13

by

2016-11-13

Federal spending growth under Obama is lower than under the previous four presidents. Subsequent to the chart, US federal spending has increased. It will likely increase more under the next President.

Read More »

Great Graphic: Shifting Trade-Weighted Exchange Rates

2016-11-12

by

2016-11-12

The dollar's trade-weighted index is firming and a couple percentage points from the year's high set in January. The yen's trade-weighted index is at several month lows, but remains dramatically higher ear-to-date. The euro's trade-weighted index has begun falling amid concerns that it is the next focus for the anti-globalization/nationalism movement. Sterling's trade-weighted index is extending its recovery as a softer Brexit is anticipated, the...

Read More »

FX Daily, November 11: Ramifications of Trump’s Election Continue to Drive Markets

2016-11-11

by

2016-11-11

FX Performance, November 11 2016 Movers and Shakers
The forces unleashed by the US election results continue to drive the capitals markets. The combination of nationalism, reflation and deregulation are seen as good for US equities and the US dollar. It has not been so kind to US Treasuries, where the 10- and 30-year yield has risen about 32 bp this week coming into today's federal holiday that closes the bond market, while the stock market is open.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 10: US Dollar, Equities, and Commodities Firmer as Reflation Trade Takes Hold

2016-11-10

by

2016-11-10

FX Performance, November 10 2016 Movers and Shakers
GBP/CHF rates spiked by almost two cents during Wednesday’s trading, providing those clients holding Sterling with some of the best rates they’ve seen in the past few weeks. This move came following confirmation that Donald Trump had won the race for the White House, news which sent shockwaves through the market. How the outcome will affect the global markets is difficult to analyse at this point but could yesterday’s positive spike indicate better...

Read More »

China Update

2016-11-10

by

2016-11-10

China
The evolving political situation in China is worth monitoring. China's trade surplus with the US has fallen this year. It has been roughly 20 years since China was formally labeled a currency manipulator. Trump has indicated he would do so.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 09: Mourning in America?

2016-11-09

by

2016-11-09

FX Performance, November 09 2016 Movers and Shakers
Global capital markets have been roiled by Trump's stunning victory Swiss National Bank's Andrea Maechler promised interventions for the case that Trump wins the elections. It was probably not necessary. Only the EUR/CHF fell to 1.0753. Strangely the dollar and markets recovered.

Read More »

Cool Video: Bloomberg Interview – Peso, Equities, Yuan

2016-11-08

by

2016-11-08

Mark Chandler
Even before the my polling station opened today, I had the privilege of being on Bloomberg Surveillance today with Gina Cervetti and Tom Keene. We talk about a wide range of issues directly and tangentially related to the US election. We discuss the outcome the market appears to be discounting.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 08: Consolidation Featured as Market Catches and Holds Breath

2016-11-08

by

2016-11-08

FX Performance, November 08 2016 Movers and Shakers
The equity markets snapped their losing streak yesterday and are consolidating today. The US dollar is narrowly mixed. The euro and sterling are slightly firmer, but well within yesterday's ranges. The dollar-bloc is a bit lower, and once again the Australian dollar is struggling to sustain moves above $0.7700.

Read More »

FX Daily, November 07: Dollar Stabilizing After Bounce

2016-11-07

by

2016-11-07

FX Performance, November 07 2016 Movers and Shakers
The DAX also gapped lower before the weekend and gapped higher today. It is stalling just ahead of the earlier gap from last week (10460-10508). It is up about 1.6% in late-morning turnover. The strongest sector is the financials, up 2.5%, with the banks up 3.4%. Deutsche Bank is snapping a five-session drop. It fell 9.1% last week. It has recouped more than half of that today.

Read More »

FX Weekly Preview: The US Election is The Driver in the Week Ahead

2016-11-06

by

2016-11-06

Economic Events: Eurozone, Week November 07
Neither the Mexican peso's performance nor the fed funds futures seem to show that investors think the election is very close. Not all poll analysis showed what the Financial Times called "knife-edge". None of the poll analysis showed Trump winning, and many appear to have stabilized over the last couple of days.

Read More »