Tag Archive: U.S. Average Earnings

The Average Earnings Index measures change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. The Average Earnings figure gives us a good indication of personal income growth during the given month.

Solid US Jobs Report in line with Expectations

2017-03-10

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2017-03-10

fred
The US jobs report was largely in line with expectations. February was the second consecutive month that the US economy created more than 200k jobs. It is the first time since last June and July. The 235k is just below the revised January 238k gain (initially 227k).

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Real Wages Really Inconsistent

2017-02-16

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2017-02-16

Average Weekly Earnings Production and Nonsupervisory August 2007 - February 2017
Real average weekly earnings for the private sector fell 0.6% year-over-year in January. It was the first contraction since December 2013 and the sharpest since October 2012. The reason for it is very simple; nominal wages remain stubbornly stagnant but now a rising CPI subtracts even more from them.

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FX Daily, February 03: US Jobs Trump Europe’s Service PMIs

2017-02-03

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2017-02-03

FX Performance, February 03 2017 Movers and Shakers
Ahead of the weekend, there are two series of economic reports. The first are Europe's service PMI reports and the second is the US employment report. Neither report is likely to alter views significantly, but the latter has greater potential to move the market.

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US Jobs Details Better than the Headline

2017-01-07

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2017-01-07

The dollar and US yields are recouping more of yesterday’s decline. A break of $1.0480-$1.05 would suggest the euro’s upside bounce is exhausted. A dollar move above JPY116.80-JPY117.25 would also hint that the greenback was going to make an other run toward JPY118.30-JPY118.60. Sterling support is seen in the $1.2285-$1.2310 area.

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FX Daily, January 06: Dollar Consolidates Losses, Peso Firms while Yuan Reverses

2017-01-06

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2017-01-06

FX Performance, January 06 2017 Movers and Shakers
I am reading a lot about the pound in 2017 which is likely to be as volatile as in 2016. But the Franc is a harder beast to predict. Loosely tracking the euro but subject to its own rules and trends GBPCHF could be an interesting pair to watch in 2017. There are numerous global events which can shape the direction on the Franc and clients looking to exchange pounds into Francs or move Francs back to the UK should be considering the path ahead.

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A Few Thoughts Ahead of the US Jobs Report

2017-01-06

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2017-01-06

ADP and Non-Manufacturing ISM lend credence to our fear of a disappointing national jobs report. Economists estimate only a small part of the manufacturing jobs loss can be traced to trade policy. 19 states increased min wage at the start of the year, but the impact on the nation's average weekly earnings will likely be too small to detect.

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Mixed Jobs Report, but Unlikely to Deter Expectations for Fed Hike

2016-12-02

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2016-12-02

The US dollar has slipped lower in response to the jobs data, but quickly recovered. The details are mixed, but is unlikely to change views on the outlook for Fed policy. The headline job creation was in line with expectations at 178k. Job growth of the back two months were shaved by 2k, concentrated in October. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%, the lowest since 2007.

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FX Daily, October 07: Sterling Stabilizes After Harrowing Drop, Now Jobs

2016-10-07

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2016-10-07

FX Performance, September 7, 2016
Sterling again steals the limelight. In early Asia, sterling inexplicably dropped nearly eight cents in minutes (to ~$1840), and on some platforms, may have traded below $1.1380. It almost immediately rebounded but has not resurfaced above $1.2480.

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You Want to Fix the Economy? Then First Fix Healthcare

2016-09-29

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2016-09-29

Business Sector: Real Compensation Per Hour, Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupercisory Employees
We don't just deserve an affordable, sustainable healthcare system--we're doomed to bankruptcy without one. What is blindingly obvious to employers but apparently invisible to the average zero-business-experience mainstream pundit is this: if you want to fix the economy, you must first fix healthcare.

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US Jobs Disappoint, Risk of Sept Hike Recedes, Dollar Falls

2016-09-03

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2016-09-03

U.S. Unemployment Rate
Underlying concerns about US labor market ease after two robust reports. Sept Fed views will not change much. Canada’s data is disappointing, BOC optimism may be challenged.

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FX Daily, September 2: US Jobs Data–Higher Anxiety, Thank You Mr. Fischer

2016-09-02

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2016-09-02

Movers and Shakers 2016 September 02
The US dollar is little changed ahead of the job report. Our near-term bias is for a lower dollar. Sterling is flat and is holding on to about a 1% gain this week. The Japanese yen is about a 0.3% lower and is off 1.7% this week. The euro was coming into today for the week.

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US Jobs Surprise, Canada Disappoints

2016-08-06

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2016-08-06

Underlying concerns about US labor market ease after two robust reports. Sept Fed views will not change much. Canada’s data is disappointing, BOC optimism may be challenged.

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FX Daily, August 05: US Jobs Data on Tap, but Don’t Expect Miracles

2016-08-05

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2016-08-05

The focus is squarely on the US employment data today, ahead of which the capital markets are mostly consolidating yesterday's Bank of England inspired moved. The Australian and New Zealand dollars, alongside sterling, which is up about half a cent after losing two yesterday.

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FX Weekly Preview: After this Week, Does August Matter?

2016-07-31

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2016-07-31

RBA meeting is a close call. BOE meeting consensus on rate cut, maybe new QE and lending-for-funding. More details of Japan's fiscal policy. U.S. jobs data. After this week, and outside of RBNZ rate cut, August may be uneventful.

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FX Daily, July 08: US Jobs Data, Little Policy Significance, Swiss Unemployment falls

2016-07-08

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2016-07-08

Positive job data in the United States are typically positive for both USD and EUR, because the odds of a rate hike are increasing. Consequently the EUR/CHF rose. In the last two days SNB interventions should have been smaller. The Swiss unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.3%.

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North American Jobs Report and Implications

2016-07-08

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2016-07-08

There is something for everyone in today's US jobs report, and at the end of the day, it is unlikely to sway opinion about the direction and timing of the next Fed move. The greenback itself may remain range bound after the initial flurry. On the other hand, the disappointing but noisy Canadian data underscores the risk of a more dovish slant to the central bank's neutral stance next week.

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FX Weekly Preview: If No Article 50 Soon, What are the Fundamental Drivers?

2016-07-03

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2016-07-03

Impact of Brexit will take some time to be seen, but the U.K. is already losing influence. U.S. employment data is not sufficient to get the Fed to hike this month. Pressure continues to build on the BOJ to act.

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FX Daily, June 15: Key Data and FOMC

2016-06-15

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2016-06-15

The Swiss Franc was today on the back-foot against the euro, while the FOMC helped him to rise against the dollar. Yesterday Swiss producer prices were published. Negative changes in producer prices in 2015 reduce the Swiss franc overvaluation in terms of the Real Effective Exchange strongly. Now, however, changes producer prices are approaching zero again.

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FX Daily, June 3: FX Market Shocked by Non-Farm Payrolls

2016-06-04

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2016-06-04

Massive surprise in the US job report was reflected in currency rates. The EUR/CHF surprisingly increased, despite weak US data. This reflects the fact that the ECB is currently considered the most dovish central bank. The dollar lost 2% against the yen, 1.6% against the euro and 1.3% vs. the Swiss franc.

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Are Dollar Fundamentals Lagging the Technical Improvement?

2016-05-15

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2016-05-15

The US dollar extended its recovery that began on May 3.  Its technical condition remains constructive, even though up until now, the gains are still consistent with a modest correction rather than a trend reversal.   The details of the employment report, if not the headline, coupled with the 1.3% increase in retail sales, have boosted …

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