Tag Archive: Trade

FX Daily, January 21: It is the ECB’s Turn but Little New to be Said or Done

Overview:  The S&P 500 and NASDAQ gapped higher yesterday to record-levels, and the reflation theme lifted Asia Pacific shares for the third session today.  South Korea, Taiwan, and China led the advance. 

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FX Daily, January 14: Markets are Subdued Despite Impeachment and Record Chinese Trade Surplus

Overview:  The capital markets are becalmed today. There does not appear to be much reaction to the news that the House of Representatives impeached President Trump an unprecedented second time with greater bipartisan support than previously (10 GOP voted with the Democratic majority). 

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FX Daily, November 23: Markets Look Past Near-Term Challenges

Overview:  News that the AstraZeneca vaccine was 70% effective but could be enhanced by changing dosage is lifting spirits and boosting equities.  Japan's markets were closed for a national holiday, but all the equity markets in the region advanced and many by more than 1%. 

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FX Daily, November 18: Balancing Pandemic Surge with Optimism about Vaccine

News that Tokyo will go to its highest alert as it faces a rising contagion snapped a 12-day rally in the Nikkei, but most bourses in the Asia Pacific region excluding Japan advanced, though Chinese equities were mixed. European equities are narrowly mixed as the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 continues to gyrate within Monday's range.

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FX Daily, November 10: Markets Remain Unsettled

Overview: Pfizer's vaccine announcement eclipsed the US election as the key market driver. It spurred the unwinding of Covid trades in terms of sectors and yields.  Emerging market currencies and the majors that benefit from world growth outperformed the perceived safe-havens, like the yen and the Swiss franc.

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FX Daily, October 14: UK Blinks on Threat to Walk Away on Eve of EU Summit

Overview: Turn around Tuesday saw the dollar bounce, particularly against the Australian dollar and European currencies, among the majors.  Sterling pared earlier losses on reports that the UK would not walk away from the talks just yet, while the euro remains on its back foot.

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FX Daily, October 08: Markets Catch Collective Breath

The S&P 500 and NASDAQ closed at their highest levels in around a month yesterday, recouping Tuesday's presidential tweet-driven drop. We thought the market overreacted to the end of the fiscal talks as many had already recognized that a stimulus agreement was unlikely before the election, but the near round-trip seen in stocks and bonds was surprising.

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FX Daily, October 6: The Dollar Tests Key Supports and Pauses

Market moves have stalled.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index did manage to extend Monday's gains, but other markets are heavier.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day advance.  The communications sector is the sole standout, though financials and energy are little changed.

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FX Daily, September 16: Dollar Eases Ahead of the FOMC

Overview:  The dollar has been sold against nearly all the world's currencies ahead of what is expected to be a dovish Federal Reserve, even if no fresh action is taken. The Scandis and Antipodean currencies are leading the majors. 

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FX Daily, September 8: US Threats to Decouple from China and the Greenback Strengthens

The markets remain on edge. US-China tensions are escalating. Strained Brexit talks are set to resume today. Profit-taking in the tech space has continued. The ECB meeting is around the corner. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a three-day slide today with most markets moving higher, led by a 1% gain in Australia. 

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Cool Video: TD Ameritrade with Ben Lichtenstein

With the dollar continuing to trend lower, it was time to check again with Ben Lichtenstein at TD Ameritrade.  It was a privilege to join him today to discuss the drivers. I sketched out my views that the greenback's two legs, growth and interest rate differentials have been knocked from under it.

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FX Daily, August 07: Position Adjustment Dominates ahead of US/Canada Employment Reports

Escalating dramas may be behind the position adjustment today ahead of the US jobs data. The US and China feud expanded beyond Tiktok to WeChat, and efforts to tighten disclosure rules for Chinese companies listed in the US are nearing. The negotiations between the White House and the Democrats broke down, preventing or at least delaying additional stimulus. 

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FX Daily, July 2: Dollar Thumped Ahead of US Jobs Report

Market optimism over the possibility of a vaccine in early 2021 overshadowed the continued surge in US cases, where the 50k-a-day threshold of new cases has been breached.  Following the NASDAQ close yesterday at record highs, global equities have advanced.  Led by Hong Kong returning from yesterday's holiday, Asia Pacific equities rallied.  Most local markets rose by more than 1%, though Tokyo and Taiwan lagged.

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FX Daily, June 29: USD is Offered in Quiet Start to the New Week

The combination of rising virus cases and the sell-off in the US before the weekend dragged nearly all the Asia Pacific bourses lower.  The Nikkei led the way with more than a 2% drop, but most bourses were off more than 1%.  China and Taiwan were also greeted with selling as markets re-opened from a two-day holiday at the end of last week. 

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FX Daily, May 21: Markets Pull Back after Flirting with Breakouts

Overview: New two and a half month highs in the S&P 500 yesterday failed to have much sway in the Asia Pacific region and Europe today as US-China tensions escalate and profit-taking set in. Perhaps it is a bit of "buy the rumor sell the fact" type of activity on the back of upticks in the preliminary PMI reading and hesitancy about pushing for what appeared to be breakouts.

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FX Daily, February 13: Surprise? China Undercounts Afflictions and Fatalities, Curbs Risk Taking

Overview: There is one overriding driver today, and that is the incorporation of CAT scan diagnoses of the virus in Hubei, ground-zero. This follows the arrival of WHO officials into China a couple days ago. Not only have the cases jumped, but so did the number of deaths. It plays on fears that China's figures are not reliable. But it is not just China.

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FX Daily, February 7: Dollar Rides High as Eurozone Disappoints, and Caution Sets In

Overview: A more cautious tone is evident today in the markets, which seem to have run well ahead of macro developments and evidence that the new coronavirus is not yet contained. After a roughly 3.5% advance in the past three sessions, the MSCI Asia Pacific index pulled back with nearly the markets in the region slipping.

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FX Daily, February 6: Stocks Push Higher but more Cautious Tone may be Emerging

Overview:  The bullish enthusiasm that carried the S&P 500 to new closing highs yesterday is helping Asia Pacific and European shares today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the third session with Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Korea jumping two percent.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 gapped to new record highs before stabilizing in mid-morning turnover.  US shares are mostly firmer. 

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FX Daily, January 16: Markets Look for New Cues with US-China Trade Pact Signed

Overview: The global capital markets are calm today as investors await fresh trading incentives. New record highs in the US equity indices gave Asia Pacific stocks a lift, though China and Taiwan were notable exceptions. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is firm new record highs set last week.  US equities are edging higher in Europe. Benchmark bond yields are little changed.

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