Tag Archive: Trade
Sterling Moves Back into Previous Trading Range, but will it Hold?
Overview: The dollar is trading with a
slightly heavier bias as some of its recent gains are pared. Sterling has moved
back into the $1.26-$1.28 trading range that dominated since the middle of last
December until the start of this week. The euro is also trading a little firmer
despite another large drop in German industrial output (-1.6%). The Japanese
yen, Swiss franc, and Norwegian krone are the notable exceptions with a softer profile....
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The Dollar Goes Nowhere Quickly
Overview: The dollar continues to consolidate
broadly after the dramatic price swings at the end of last week. For the most
part, the greenback remains inside yesterday's ranges, which were inside last
Friday's. The G10 currencies are a little heavier today, except the Japanese
yen and Norwegian krone, which are posting small gains. Indeed, the greenback is near session highs against most of the major currencies as we go to print. Emerging market...
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Markets Continue to Struggle
Overview: The markets remain unsettled. Follow-through
dollar selling has been limited today after yesterday's pullback. Narrow ranges
are prevailing, but the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar, the weakest G10
currencies in recent days, are heavier again today. Although it seems that the
BOJ did not intervene earlier this week, but the dollar bulls has been
chastened just the same and the greenback is holdings below yesterday's high...
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Market Awaits US Data and Leadership
Overview: The dollar staged a major technical
reversal yesterday, in a dramatic reaction to a considerably weaker JOLTs
report than expected, spurring a large drop in US interest rates. And this is
despite press reports that the participation rate in the survey is half of what
was three years ago. We suspect the price action said as much about market
positioning as it did about the data. The path to the US jobs data on Friday
goes through...
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After Strong Demand for US Three-Year Notes, Treasury will Sell $38 bln 10-year Notes
Overview: The first leg of the US refunding was well
received, with the three-year note being scooped up by investors, driving the
yield below it was trading in the when-issued market. Today, the Treasury sells
$38 bln 10-year notes, whose auctions have been less than stellar recently. The
US 10-year yield reached 4.20% last week and is now straddling 4%. Italian
bonds are also firm as the Italian government clarifies the
new tax on banks' windfall...
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Risk Appetites Squashed by Weak Chinese Imports/Exports and Moody’s Downgrade of 10 US Banks
Overview: The combination
of falling Chinese imports and exports, Moody's downgrade of ten US small and
medium-sized banks is serving to squash risk appetites. Equities are weak, but
bond markets are strong despite the surprise tax on Italian banks announced
yesterday and the kick-off of the US $103 bln refunding today. Outside of Japan
and Australia, Asia Pacific equity markets were lower led by a 1.8% drop in the
Hang Seng and a nearly 2.2% loss...
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Yen and Yuan Lead Move Against the Dollar
Overview: Stocks and bonds ae selling off today. The
greenback is also trading heavily. Ironically, the yen is the strongest among
the G10 currencies and the Chinese yuan is the strongest among emerging market
currencies. The dollar is firmer against the Scandis and Canadian dollar. Most
emerging market currencies, including the Mexican peso, which traded at its
best level yesterday since 2015. While nearly all the bourses
but India fell in the...
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The Dollar Regains Composure
Overview: The dollar is better bid today. It is rising against
nearly all the G10 currencies, with the Antipodeans bearing the brunt, after a
softer than expected Australian inflation report. The yen has steadied after
extending its losses to new lows for the year. Emerging market currencies are
also mostly lower, though the Mexican peso is edging higher for the fourth
consecutive session. The large Asia
Pacific bourses rallied with the exception...
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Equities Retreat while the Dollar is Confined to Narrow Ranges
Overview: Equities are mostly lower, while bonds have risen. The
dollar is trading in narrow ranges and mixed against the G10 currencies and
emerging markets. Most Asian bourses were lower. The Nikkei (though not the
Topix) and Hong Kong were the chief exceptions. Europe's Stoxx 600 is off for
the second consecutive day, in what looks like the first back-to-back loss
since early this month. US equity futures are lower, with the NASDAQ, which
eked...
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RBA Holds Fire, Sterling Reaches Best Level since last June, and the Dollar Struggles to Find Much Traction
Overview: The jump in oil prices is the newest shock and the May
WTI contract is holding above $80 a barrel as it consolidates yesterday's
surge. A week ago, it settled near $73.20. Australian and New Zealand bond
yields moved lower, partly in catch-up and partly after the RBA stood pat. South
Korean bonds also rallied on the back of softer inflation (4.2% vs. 4.8%). But
European and US benchmark yields is 2-4 bp higher. The large equity markets...
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Financial Stress Continues to Recede
Overview: Financial stress continues to recede. The
Topix bank index is up for the second consecutive session and the Stoxx 600
bank index is recovering for the third session. The AT1 ETF is trying to snap a
four-day decline. The KBW US bank index rose for the third consecutive session
yesterday. More broadly equity markets are rallying. The advance in the Asia
Pacific was led by tech companies following Alibaba's re-organization
announcement. The...
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Tumbling Tokyo Prices Gives Ueda Breathing Space
Overview: Talk from two Fed officials yesterday,
which seemed to validate market expectations eased the upward pressure on the
dollar and helped equities launch a dramatic recovery. The market is pricing in a terminal rate near 5.50%, a little higher than the median dot in December. The S&P 500 posted a
dramatic recover and posted a potential bullish key reversal. Its 0.75% closing
gain was the largest advance in nearly three weeks. A large...
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No Turn Around, but Consolidation Featured
Overview: After large moves yesterday, the capital
markets ae quieter today. Stocks are mostly firmer, and the 10-year US yield is
a little softer near 3.62%. Strong nominal wage increases in Japan and a
hawkish hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia helped their respectively
currencies recover, though remain within yesterday's ranges. The euro briefly
traded below $1.07, and sterling has been sold through $1.20. That said, a
consolidative tone is...
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The Market Appears to Shrug Off the Fed’s Warning
Overview: The US dollar is consolidating in a mixed
fashion today. The FOMC minutes drew much attention but failed, at least
initially, to spur a significant shift in expectations. The pricing in the Fed
funds futures strip is still consistent with a cut later this year, which the
minutes were clear, no officials anticipate. Today's US ADP jobs estimate, and
November trade balance are being overshadowed by tomorrow's nonfarm payroll
figures. The...
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Yesterday’s Dollar Recovery Questioned Today
Overview: The 11 bp jump in the 10-year US yield yesterday after dropping nearly 26 bp in the previous three sessions, helped the greenback recover and took a toll on stocks. Still, the S&P 500 is above the low set on November 30 (~3939) before Fed Chair Powell's talk that day.
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Risk Appetites Survive China Keeping Zero Covid Policy
Overview: Chinese officials denied plans to end the zero-Covid policy
and after a brief wobble, risk assets have traded better. Asia Pacific equities
rallied, led by Hong Kong and mainland stocks that trade in Hong Kong. Europe’s
Stoxx 600 opened lower but recovered and is around 0.5% higher after the 1.8%
gain before the weekend. US futures are firm. Benchmark 10-year yields are mostly
2-4 bp softer in Europe and the US. The dollar is mixed. The...
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Fed’s Hawkishness Roils the Capital Markets
Overview: The Fed delivered the expected 75 bp
rate hike, and although it says it will take into account the cumulative effect
of past hikes and their lagged impact, the takeaway has been a hawkish message.
Risk appetites have evaporated. The dollar is stronger, while stocks and bonds
have been sold. Japan’s markets were spared due to the national holiday, but the
other large markets in the area were sold, lead by the 3% decline in the Hang
Seng....
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Dollar Recovers from Yesterday’s Stunning Reversal, but has Sentiment Turned in North America?
There has been little follow-through dollar selling so far today after yesterday’s dramatic downside reversal after the initial flurry of buying in response to the stronger than expected US CPI.
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Bank of England Steps in to Buy Inflation-Linked Bonds for the First Time
Overview: The dollar continues to ride high. It reached its highest level against the yen since the recent intervention. The Canadian dollar has fallen to its lowest level in two-and-a-half years and the New Zealand dollar is approaching the 2020 extreme.
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Intraday Momentum Indicators Point to a Dollar Recovery After the Employment Report
Asia Pacific bourses followed yesterday’s US loss, but after opening lower Europe’s Stoxx 600 has steadied. US futures are narrowly mixed ahead of the US jobs report. Benchmark 10-year yields are higher across the board.
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