Tag Archive: Switzerland

Swiss Economic Indicators, March 2013

2013-03-27

GDP KOF Wages CPI PPI Trade Balance Consumption SECO Industrial Production Construction

Switzerland continues to see a robust economy, even if the leading KOF indicator fell to 0.99 after highs of 1.68 in September. On other side, real and nominal wages continue to increase. As opposed to the KOF value, the UBS consumption indicator is rising. This shows that the internal economy is able to balance … Continue...

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IMF (2013): Sees Considerable Risks on SNB Balance Sheet

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) judges "that the SNB’s net revenue is subject to large fluctuations, and sizeable losses could occur if an appreciation of the Swiss franc was to take place before foreign exchange interventions were unwound."

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Difference between Eurozone and Swiss Inflation Rates Continues to Shrink

2013-03-09

by George Dorgan

2013-03-09

The gap has fallen from 3.7% in February 2012 to 2.1%. Swiss CPI is rising on monthly basis, but still negative with 0.3% YoY.

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Latest Swiss Inflation Details

Switzerland’s Slow Way to Inflation

2013-02-13

by George Dorgan

2013-02-13

UPDATE February 2013 inflation data: The inflation figures for February showed the upwards movement we expected. On monthly basis inflation rose by 0.3%. The Swiss CPI is getting closer and closer to the one of the euro zone. We explain the January 2013 data on Swiss inflation and indicate which components drive the consumer …

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Target2 Balances and SNB Currency Reserves: Same Concept, Update February 2013

2013-02-09

by George Dorgan

2013-02-09

target2 balances vs. snb reserves germany spain greece austria finland italy

We show that Target2 imbalances and the SNB currency reserves represent the same issues, namely current account surpluses/deficits and capital flight. Therefore it makes sense to compare them, in total and by inhabitant.

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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. The SNB should use the moment to sell some currency reserves. From May on, the typical seasonal effects will push the SNB into a defense.

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update January 25

2013-01-26

by George Dorgan

2013-01-26

Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators. After a strong slowing in summer 2012 and the Fed’s QE3, this is the fourth month of improvements in global PMIs January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are 15 countries that show values above 50 and 14 with values under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: …

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Deflationary Risks? Comparing Swiss, Swedish and Norwegian Inflation and Exchange Rates

2013-01-24

by George Dorgan

2013-01-24

House Prices Germany 7 cities vs. Greece

When the Swiss National Bank introduced the 1.20 lower limit, it wanted to eliminate the deflationary risks for Switzerland. For a certain period, namely when a global recession was looming in Autumn 2011, and the Swiss franc was hovering around 1.10, this risk was really present. In this post we would like to know if …

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Target2 Balances and SNB Currency Reserves. They are Both the Same Concept

Yearly Swiss Doomsaying and Swissmem’s Control over the Swiss National Bank

2013-01-11

by George Dorgan

2013-01-11

The same as every year in December/January: Swiss media and economists are doomsaying. This time they claim that the banking industry and the UBS job losses will bring Switzerland into trouble. Once again they do not understand that the Great Recession was only to a small part a banking crisis, but it was mostly a … Continue reading »

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ZKB may introduce negative interest rates for ordinary savers

2013-01-11

by George Dorgan

2013-01-11

After UBS and CS introduced negative interest rates for big clearing accounts, ZKB changes general conditions for a potential introduction of negative rates even for ordinary savers. Time to get in contact with Geneva cash storing warehouses? More about the ZKB move on

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Swiss Public Discussion Switched from Floor to Housing Bubble

2013-01-10

by George Dorgan

2013-01-10

Why there is no real estate bubble in Switzerland yet and why the SNB will help to create one With the current recovery in the United States the discussion in Switzerland switched from a discussion about the EUR/CHF floor to the Swiss real estate boom, the so-called “housing bubble”. It seems that the Swiss …

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Swiss Purchasing Manager Index

FX Theory: The Balance of Payments Model Explained in 400 Words

2012-12-30

by George Dorgan

2012-12-30

The balance of payments leads to many confusions because definitions vary. For example, the IMF’s definition is different from the usual or historical definition. Secondly, the relationship between the balance of payments and reserve assets is difficult to grasp, especially in the IMF definition. Thirdly the origin of “errors and omissions” is often unclear. Therefore …

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