Tag Archive: Spain

European Industrial Production Still Contracting, Switzerland Expanding Again

2013-10-16

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2013-10-16

Industrial Production 2010-2013
Swiss industrial production is rather insensitive to price changes and to the recent slowing of global demand thanks to the concentration on pharmaceuticals and luxury products.   Based on Eurostat’s industrial production for July and August , we compared the values from 2010 to 2013 for these two summer months. This aggregated two-months comparison is …

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Debt Reduction, the new Financial Cycle, an Important Driver of EUR/CHF

Swiss Debt and Deficit to GDP
In this analysis we describe why the long-lasting financial cycle of debt reduction is one key driver of the EUR/CHF exchange rate. We claim that EUR/CHF can rise more strongly only when the competitiveness of the European periphery increases. When this happens, then debt will be reduced and both public and private deficit spending will stop.

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Reasons for the Spanish Housing Bubble



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Global Purchasing Manager Indices

2013-04-11

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2013-04-11

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.   August 2013 Update Emerging markets: Years of strong increases in wages combined with tapering fears have taken its toll: Higher costs and lower investment capital available. EM Companies have issues in coping with developed economies. Some of them …

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update January 25

2013-01-26

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2013-01-26

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.  After a strong slowing in summer 2012 and the Fed’s QE3, this is the fourth month of improvements in global PMIs   January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are 15 countries that show values above 50 and 14 with values under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: …

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Swiss Public Discussion Switched from Floor to Housing Bubble

2013-01-10

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2013-01-10

UBS Swiss Real Estate Bubble Index
Why there is no real estate bubble in Switzerland yet and why the SNB will help to create one   With the current recovery in the United States the discussion in Switzerland switched from a discussion about the EUR/CHF floor to the Swiss real estate boom, the so-called “housing bubble”. It seems that the Swiss …

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15 Years of Bubbles, Busts and Failed Monetary Policy

the stock market and dot com bubble


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The Biggest Bubble of the Century is Ending: Government Bond Yields

2012-12-26

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2012-12-26

Since 1960 Treasury Yield Chart
Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century? Update August 16, 2013: So, 10-year Treasury yields have ended the day closer to 3 per cent. But not as close as they … Continue reading »

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 17

2012-12-20

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2012-12-20

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.  Since the Fed’s QE3, this is the third month of improvements in global PMIs after a strong slowing in summer 2012.   January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are as many countries that show values above 50 as under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: 18 countries …

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The Upcoming Spanish Lost Decade(s)

2012-12-19

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2012-12-19

Spain protests
To us, the big theatre surrounding Greece was just a preview of a much bigger crisis that will happen in the coming years in Spain, the upcoming Spanish lost decade(s). Greece was an absolutely desperate case; therefore, everything was quick. It took just two years till we arrived at the official sector participation and yearly German transfer …

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The Eurozone crisis between euro-morons and zombie-bankers

Meuron Zombie Rybinski


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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 10

2012-11-12

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2012-11-12

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
  Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the most leading and important economic indicators. Jim O’Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the world.  BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich thinks it’s one of the most underrated indicators. Global Purchasing Manager Indices for the manufacturing industry   December 3, 2012 …

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74.8 percent of Norwegians Say No to EU Membership

2012-10-14

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2012-10-14

In the latest poll, 74.8 percent of the Norwegian population says no to EU membership, while 17.2 said they would vote yes in any referendum. 7.9 percent have not decided. Seven out of ten voters of the ruling party do not share the party’s views on the EU and would have voted no in a possible referendum, … Continue reading...

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The next SNB rumor: Wall Street Journal and our response

2012-09-12

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2012-09-12

GDP Switzerland vs. Eurozone
A bit breathlessly….     The next SNB rumor story comes from the so-well established Wall Street Journal, its columnist Nick Hastings. WSJ: The Swiss National Bank was bold before. And the central bank would be well advised to be just as bold again. When the SNB announced just over a year ago that it was setting a …

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All roads lead to a euro zone break-up

2012-08-10

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2012-08-10

2 solutions for euro zone will work acceptable for Germany
For us all roads lead to a euro zone break-up and multiple sovereign defaults.   Our reasoning can be summarized as follows: Equities are worthless when associated debt becomes encumbered (risk capital takes the  first loss). Equity is not an asset; it is merely the remainder that is left over once debt is subtracted from …

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Otmar Issing’s new book on the euro crisis

2012-08-10

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2012-08-10

Issing Book
  We well remember when the über-bailouter of the Financial Times Wolfgang Münchau claimed that except some old economy professors like Otmar Issing nobody in Germany would like to abolish the euro. According to Münchau the euro can be saved only via a fiscal and a banking union. The response to Münchau’s post could be … Continue reading...

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Currency Outlook and Net Speculative Positions: Week from July 16

2012-07-16

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2012-07-16

chess
Currency Outlook and Positioning: Week from July 16 Guest Post from Marc Chandler

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At the Euro summit there was nothing really new. What was the party about ?

2012-06-29

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2012-06-29

Europart2
At the euro summit today there was essentially nothing what was really surprising. We wonder what markets are so excited about.

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