Tag Archive: Spain

FX Daily, April 29: The Busy Week Begins Slowly

Overview: It promises to be an eventful week with the FOMC and BOE meeting, US jobs report and EMU April CPI and Q1 GDP on tap.  However, the week is marked by the May Day holiday in the middle of the week.  Japan's markets are closed all week, while China's markets are closed from mid-week on for an extended holiday.  The week has begun on a decidedly consolidative tone. 

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FX Daily, April 26: Greenback Consolidates Ahead of Q1 GDP

Overview:  The equities are finishing softly after the rally stalled in the middle of the week.  The large markets in Asia fell, led by China, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third session, the longest losing streak in two months.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 ended an eight-day advance with a two-day loss coming into today where it is a little softer. 

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead: Don’t Skip Steps on Escalation Ladders

The drop in US yields and disappointing economic data weighed on sentiment and the dollar last week. Even weakness in equities, which had seemed to lend the greenback support, failed to do so at the end of last week. With the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) below zero, employment at 50-year lows, and some fiscal stimulus still in the pipeline, the doom and gloom cant of a recession next year seems misplaced.

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FX Daily, May 31: Don’t Confuse Calmer Markets with Resolution

The global capital markets that were in panic mode on Tuesday stabilized yesterday, and corrective forces have carried into today's activity. However, the underlying issues in Italy and Spain are hardly clarified in the past 48 hours. Moreover, the US push on trade is intensifying again.

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FX Weekly Preview: ECB and BOJ Meetings Could be Key to Dollar Direction

The US dollar has been marked lower since the middle of last month. It flies in the face strong growth, rising inflation expectations, and greater conviction that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates this year. Moreover, an oft-cited knock on the dollar, the widening current account, may be offset this year by the impact from US corporations repatriating earnings that have been kept offshore.

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Italian Election–Two Months and Counting

Germany does not have a government, though the election was more than three months ago. Spain, Portugal, and Ireland have minority governments. Austria is the first government since the financial crisis to include the populist right. The EU is trying to press the Visegrad group of central European countries to conform to the values of Western European members.

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FX Weekly Preview: Thumbnail Sketch of the Week’s Big Events

Busiest week of Q4. Fed, BOJ, and BOE, only the last is expected to change policy. Flash EMU CPI and US jobs. Positive developments in Italy, less so in Spain.

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FX Daily, October 11: Markets Looking for a New Focus

The US dollar is consolidating after retreating since reversing lower following the US jobs data at the end of last week. While the greenback has largely been confined to yesterday's ranges against the major currencies, the euro has made a marginal new high, briefly trading through the $1.1830 area noted yesterday.

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FX Daily, October 03: Dollar Retains Firm Tone, Spanish Markets Stabilize

Firm US interest rates and a strong manufacturing ISM yesterday help support the greenback, while disappointing construction PMI in the UK weighs on sterling. The euro briefly slipped below $1.17 in Asia for the first time in six weeks. It has recovered toward the highs seen in North America yesterday (~$1.1760). There are several euro option strikes that may be in play today. In the euro, between $1.1750 and $1.1775, there are nearly 2.9 bln euros...

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FX Daily, June 07: Markets Mark Time Ahead of Tomorrow

Tomorrow may be the most important day of the quarter for investors. The ECB meets. The UK goes to the polls. Former FBI Comey testifies. Ahead of these significant events, the global capital markets are mostly quiet, with some pockets of activity.

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Euro Shrugs off European Banking Woes

Spain's Banco Popular is scrambling ahead of its meeting with the ECB tomorrow; shares are around 50% in three sessions. Italy has two banks that may see the same deal Monte Paschi negotiated with the EU. Portugal banks are still putting loan loss reserves and provisions aside.

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FX Daily, December 21: Dollar Mixed in Thinning Activity, Dow 20,000 Watch Continues

The US dollar is narrowly mixed as the holiday markets make for light turnover. Global equity markets are not finding much encouragement from the new record highs by the Dow Jones Industrials. There have been a few developments to note.

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Spain’s Political Deadlock Likely Leads to Third Election

Rajoy is hoping to form a minority government this week. It seems unlikely to succeed, which could lead to an election on Christmas. Regional elections and corruption trials may change Spain's political dynamics.

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No Fines for Iberia, but Remedial Action Demanded and Possible Loss of Some ESI Funds

Spain and Portugal need to make some relatively small budget adjustments or will be denied some transfer payments. Spain's political situation is fluid, but another window of opportunity to break the logjam is at hand. The euro seems immune to these fiscal developments; some retracement objectives are in sight.

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Three Developments in Spain

Favorable initial ruling for Spanish banks that overcharged on mortgages. The EC may be lenient on Spain (and Portugal) for the excessive deficits in 2015. There is a window of opportunity for Rajoy to form a minority government.

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UK Seeks Divorce, Rajoy Needs a Shotgun Marriage

Center-right PP won the Spanish election. Anti-EU forces were setback. Rajoy needs a coalition partner.

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European Politics Beyond the UK Referendum

Sterling is hovering around seven cents above last week’s lows as many short-term participants better position themselves for the UK to vote to say in the EU, even though many opinion polls show a statistical dead heat.   The German Constitutional Court dismissed claims that the ECB’s Outright Market Transactions does not violate the German Constitution. …

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Politics and Economics

Many people understand politics and economics to be two different disciplines. I remember in graduate school more than two decades ago, many colleagues and professors operationally defined political economy as how politics, by which they meant the state, screws up economics. I spoke at the Fixed Income Leaders Summit earlier this week and teased that many seemed …

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Eurocrisis, Myth and Reality, part 1: Big Job Creation in Spain

In the new series George Dorgan suggests that the euro crisis is a temporary development but not a long-lasting crisis. In the first part he shows that Spain actually created a lot of jobs in last twenty five years.

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Is the Safe-Haven Government Bond Bubble Finally Bursting?

The Safe-haven government bond bubble did not pop, but Italy or Spain have become low yielders as well Government bond yields under 10 years for safe-havens are close to zero. In April 2013, even 20 year bond yields are less than 3%, What can explain this bubble of the century?

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