Tag Archive: Spain

The Dollar’s Recovery has been Extended, but it may Give North American Operators a Better Selling Opportunity

2023-11-07

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2023-11-07

Overview: The dollar's sell-off last week was extreme and it recovered yesterday and through the European session today. The Australian dollar has been hit the hardest. It is off more than 1% today after the RBA lifted the cash rate by 25 bp (to 4.35%). Still, the US dollar's gains have stretched intraday momentum indicators, suggesting the upside correction may be nearly over. The greenback's moves appear to have been driven by interest rate...

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US Yields and Dollar Rise After US Government Closure Averted

2023-10-02

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2023-10-02

Overview: The US avoided a government shutdown, barely, and this eased one of the headwinds that were anticipated. In turn, this is spurring new gains in US interest rates and helping underpin the dollar at the start of the new quarter. The 10-year Treasury is holding above 4.60% and nearing last week's high (4.68%). The two-year yield gapped higher and is near 5.10%. The high from September 21 was almost 5.20%. The Swiss franc is the only G10...

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Looming US Government Shutdown Stems the Dollar’s Surge

2023-09-28

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2023-09-28

Overview: The increasingly likely partial US federal government shutdown has spurred a bout of liquidation of long dollar positions. The psychologically important JPY150 level was approached, and the euro was sold through $1.05 yesterday, and the greenback has come back better offered today. It is lower against all the G10 currencies. It is mixed against the emerging market currency complex, with central European currencies and South African rand...

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Dollar Bulls Still in Control

2023-08-18

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2023-08-18

Overview: What may have been hoped to be a quiet August has turned into a feeding frenzy for dollar bulls as the contrasting economic performance has spurred persistent buying of the greenback. Even shallow dips have been bought. Today, it is mostly trading inside yesterday's ranges against the G10 currencies. The PBOC set the dollar's reference rate at what appears to be a record gap below the Bloomberg average survey, and the dollar was scooped...

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The Dollar Regains Composure

2023-06-28

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2023-06-28

Overview: The dollar is better bid today. It is rising against nearly all the G10 currencies, with the Antipodeans bearing the brunt, after a softer than expected Australian inflation report. The yen has steadied after extending its losses to new lows for the year. Emerging market currencies are also mostly lower, though the Mexican peso is edging higher for the fourth consecutive session. The large Asia Pacific bourses rallied with the exception...

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The Dollar Reverses Early Gains

2023-05-30

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2023-05-30

Overview:  The debt ceiling drama is not over. The agreement between the negotiating teams of President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy sets the stage for the next act in the drama: each side must deliver the votes. A preliminary vote today in the House of Representatives is likely today ahead of floor vote tomorrow. Still, the market is optimistic, and risk is favored. Asia Pacific bourses were mixed today. We note that the chip sector helped...

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Dollar Soft but Stretched

2023-03-30

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2023-03-30

Overview: While bank stress seems to continue to ease, the dollar languishes against most of the major currencies. The Japanese yen is the notable exception. It is off about 1.5% this week. The Dollar Index has given back the gains scored at the end of last week but remains inside the range set last Thursday and Friday (~101.90-102.35). Perhaps the participants are waiting for Friday. In addition to month-, quarter, and fiscal-year ends, it is...

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Anti-Climactic Return of China

2023-01-30

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2023-01-30

Overview: The re-opening of China's mainland market amid reports of strong activity during the holiday, was relatively subdued. The CSI 300 rose less than 0.5% and the Shanghai Composite eked out less than a 0.2% gain. The 0.5% gain in the yuan was largely in line with the performance of the offshore yuan. Indeed, it seems like a bit like "buy the rumor sell the fact" type of activity as Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 2.75%, to give back...

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China Steps away from the Abyss and Animal Spirits are Rekindled

2022-11-29

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2022-11-29

Overview: Chinese officials using the carrot and the stick have succeeded in dampening the protests and easing some anxiety and rekindled the animal spirits. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rallied 5.25% and its index of mainland shares surged 6.20%.

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Markets are Less on Edge as the Darkest Scenarios seem Less Likely

2022-11-16

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2022-11-16

The situation in central Europe is still intense but it appears top US, European and Polish officials are more reluctant than some market participants to attribute the darkest of intentions and paint extreme narratives.

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Spanish Inflation Shocks

2022-06-29

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2022-06-29

Overview: The sharp sell-off in US equities yesterday, led by tech, is weighing on today’s activity. Most of the large Asia Pacific markets excluding Japan and India lost more than 1% today.

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BOJ Steps-Up its Efforts, US 2-10 Curve steepens, and the Dollar Softens

2022-03-30

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2022-03-30

Overview:  A pullback in US yields yesterday and the Bank of Japan's stepped-up efforts to defend the Yield Curve Control policy helped extend the yen's recovery.  This spurred profit-taking on Japanese stocks, where the Nikkei had rallied around 11% over the past two weeks. 

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As The Fed Seeks To Justify Raising Rates, Global Growth Rates Have Been Falling Off Uniformly Around The World

2022-01-08

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2022-01-08

Sentiment indicators like PMI’s are nice and all, but they’re hardly top-tier data. It’s certainly not their fault, these things are made for very times than these (piggy-backing on the ISM Manufacturing’s long history without having the long history). Most of them have come out since 2008, if only because of the heightened professional interest in macroeconomics generated by a global macro economy that can never get itself going.

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FX Daily, September 21: Risk Appetites Join Tokyo on Vacation

2020-09-21

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2020-09-21

Global equity markets are off to a poor start to the week, and the dollar appears to be enjoying a safe-haven bid. Tokyo markets are closed until Wednesday, while Asia-Pacific stocks tumbled, and the regional index is unwinding last week's gains. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600  is off around 2.7% near midday in Europe.

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As the Data Comes In, 2019 Really Did End Badly

2020-02-12

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2020-02-12

Europe Industrial Production, 2007-2019
The coronavirus began during December, but in its early stages no one knew a thing about it. It wasn’t until January 1 that health authorities in China closed the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market after initially determining some wild animals sold there might have been the source of a pneumonia-like outbreak. On January 5, the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission issued a statement saying it wasn’t SARS or MERS, and that the spreading disease would be...

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FX Daily, September 13: Bonds and the Dollar Remain Heavy Ahead of the Weekend

2019-09-13

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2019-09-13

Overview: The markets are digesting ECB's actions and an easing in US-Chinese rhetoric. Next week features the FOMC meeting and three other major central banks (Japan, Switzerland, and Norway). The US equity rally that saw the S&P 500 edge closer to the record high set in late July spilled over to lift Asian markets. Chinese and Korean markets were closed for a mid-autumn holiday.

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FX Daily, April 29: The Busy Week Begins Slowly

2019-04-29

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2019-04-29

Overview: It promises to be an eventful week with the FOMC and BOE meeting, US jobs report and EMU April CPI and Q1 GDP on tap.  However, the week is marked by the May Day holiday in the middle of the week.  Japan's markets are closed all week, while China's markets are closed from mid-week on for an extended holiday.  The week has begun on a decidedly consolidative tone. 

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FX Daily, April 26: Greenback Consolidates Ahead of Q1 GDP

2019-04-26

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2019-04-26

Overview:  The equities are finishing softly after the rally stalled in the middle of the week.  The large markets in Asia fell, led by China, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for a third session, the longest losing streak in two months.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 ended an eight-day advance with a two-day loss coming into today where it is a little softer. 

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead: Don’t Skip Steps on Escalation Ladders

2018-12-10

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2018-12-10

The drop in US yields and disappointing economic data weighed on sentiment and the dollar last week. Even weakness in equities, which had seemed to lend the greenback support, failed to do so at the end of last week. With the real Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) below zero, employment at 50-year lows, and some fiscal stimulus still in the pipeline, the doom and gloom cant of a recession next year seems misplaced.

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FX Daily, May 31: Don’t Confuse Calmer Markets with Resolution

2018-05-31

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2018-05-31

The global capital markets that were in panic mode on Tuesday stabilized yesterday, and corrective forces have carried into today's activity. However, the underlying issues in Italy and Spain are hardly clarified in the past 48 hours. Moreover, the US push on trade is intensifying again.

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