Tag Archive: sector balances

Why was the gold price so low in 1999/2000?

Domestic Private Surplus, Govt Surplus
To find further explanations as to why the gold price was weak in the late 1990s we analyze sector balances. Effectively private spending and private debt went in two different directions: a heavy increase in private spending and debt in the US against less growth in private spending and less debt in the rest of world. This combination fostered GDP growth in the US and weakened it in other countries. Real interest rates were positive. Markets...

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Cultural Reasons for Japan’s Deflation: Can the U.S. Go into a Balance Sheet Recession?

power distance individualism collectivism
The power distance between employer and employee enforces the importance of the leader, the entrepreneur. Moreover, the collectivite Asian society does not want unemployment, employees prefer to renounce to salary hikes in favor of the collective. These cultural reasons can qualify as drivers of the Japanese balance sheet recession.

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El-Erian: The New Normal



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Global Purchasing Manager Indices (outdated)

Manufacturing PMIs : most leading and important economic indicators.

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Why it Makes Sense to Exit the Euro Zone in Times of Balance Sheet Recessions

Beppe Grillo
Italy will follow Japan for decade(s) of balance sheet recession. There is one mean to avoid it. The periphery should use current positive market sentiments and low inflation to exit the euro zone.

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Richard Koo’s newest paper: About the Ineffectiveness of Monetary Expansion



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15 Years of Bubbles, Busts and Failed Monetary Policy

the stock market and dot com bubble


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Ways to the Northern Euro

EU Labour costs 2011
Two ways for building the Northern euro, exit of Southern members or slow creation of Northern euro with currency interventions of central banks.

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Richard Koo: Balance Sheet Recessions

Ying Yang Cycle of Bubbles and Balance Sheet Recessions Richard Koo


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The Balance Sheet Recession: UK Q2 Housing Equity Injection Largest Since Q2 2011

2012-12-03

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2012-12-03

Gross Flow Withdrawals Injections BoE UK
The American-Taiwanese economist Richard Koo, is the chief-economist of the Nomura Research Institute. In his theory of the Balance Sheet Recession he distinguishes between the “Yang” phase of the economy and the “Yin” phase (the so-called “balance sheet recession”). In “Yang” times companies want to increase profit and people consume a big part of their pay …

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Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th

2012-07-04

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2012-07-04

On the way to a recession
updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs  compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI:  Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI  

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The Wealth Effect: Rising House Prices Sustain Spending

Link Housing Wealth Consumption Doms Dunn


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The German supply-side reforms or will German companies take over the PIIGS ?

2012-06-02

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2012-06-02

Greece vs. Eastern E
Words heart on German street in 2010 during the first Greek bailouts were that Germany should obtain the Greek islands as collateral if Greece is not able to pay back the debt to Germany. But even today German n-tv is reporting about many Greek real estate brokers that are currently delling islands. If it is not that type … Continue...

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