Tag Archive: PMI

Why the euro has recovered? or are Markit PMI really reliable?

2012-08-23

Here a follow-up of our contribution on Seeking Alpha written on August 15th, with the title “Are Markit PMIs really reliable?“. We recommended to go long the euro and the Swiss franc against the US dollar and sterling, because the Markit PMIs were not in line with trade balance data. Previously we suggested in … Continue...

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10) Global Macro

Net Speculative Positions , Global Markets and Outlook, week from August 20

2012-08-19

by Marc Chandler

2012-08-19

Currency Positioning and Outlook, week from August 20 Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The market is like expectant parents who don’t know the gender of the fetus. They know something big is around the corner, but they don’t have enough information to make some important decisions. They can contemplate the future, but there …

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Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?

2012-08-07

by George Dorgan

2012-08-07

updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …

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Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th

2012-07-04

by George Dorgan

2012-07-04

updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI: Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI

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The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect and its equivalent for the SNB

2012-06-09

by George Dorgan

2012-06-09

The "Sell in May, come back in October" effect It is the same seasonal anomaly nearly every year: The statistically flawed (see here and here) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivers some good winter readings with 200K new jobs, this time additionally fuelled by a weather effect; biased data that let hard-core Keynesian policy makers doubt Okun's law. Consequently the stock markets rally …

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Rumors about tax on Swiss deposits for foreigners and further SNB measures: SNB begging for pips

2012-05-24

by George Dorgan

2012-05-24

Exactly when the US had a relatively good Markit Flash PMI, rumors are sent out that deposits in CHF for foreigners should be taxed. To send out this rumor together with good US data seems to be intentional. According to Banque CIC the SNB has declined to comment. We remember the last SNB meeting when similar rumors circulated.

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Forget Non-Farm Payrolls, Take US Personal Disposable Income as Lead Economic Indicator

2012-05-06

by George Dorgan

2012-05-06

The unreliable Non-Farm Payrolls has far too much importance Interesting to see that markets needed two relatively bad NFPs to really believe that their main indicators, the “Non-Farm Payroll” reports were strongly biased in January and February by a positive weather effect. HFT algorithms that highly influence stock market prices, are not able to take …

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Keynesians vs. Anti-Keynesians: How price deflation has kick started the US growth

2012-02-05

by George Dorgan

2012-02-05

In recent posts Keynesians were criticized that hikes in the monetary base like Quantitative Easing (QE2) failed to lift the US economy, but it was the debt ceiling that helped to restore confidence in the US and that austerity can lead to GDP growth. Paul Krugman angrily replied that “even a huge rise in the …

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The new European Save-Havens: Trade SEK/CHF and NOK/CHF

2012-01-10

by George Dorgan

2012-01-10

After the announcement of the floor in the EUR/CHF pair, many predicted the Swedish and the Norwegian Krone to take the place of the Swiss Franc as European save-haven against the Euro turmoil (http://on.ft.com/pKSJ1V). Both countries possess a low level of debt, positive trade balance and very competitive economies.

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SNB: Lift EUR/CHF floor or not ?

2011-12-14

by George Dorgan

2011-12-14

Many participants in the FX markets seem to be sure that the SNB will lift the EUR/CHF flow to 1.25 Here the pros and the cons:

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EUR/CHF: One Year of Free Market (07/2010-07/2011): June 2011

2011-06-30

by George Dorgan

2011-06-30

Specs Scrambling For Cover In EUR/CHF The Armageddon trade is being taken off in dramatic size in thin-month-end markets, driving EUR/CHF above 1.2200. USD/CHF is nearing resistance at 0.8440. Traders not talk of significant interest from real money accounts to buy both USD/CHF and USD/JPY at the fixing at 15:00 GMT. The danger now is … Continue reading »

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EUR/CHF A history of interventions: November 2009

2009-11-30

by George Dorgan

2009-11-30

November 2009 Asian FX Market Open: Price Action Suggests That There’s More To Come As I wrote yesterday, the market moves reminded me of 12 months ago when risk aversion was in full flow and this has continued throughout the European session. As Lilac mentioned after the FTSE fell by over 3%, we could be … Continue reading »

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