Tag Archive: PMI

The “Sell in May, Come Back in October” Effect and the 19 Fortune-Tellers of the FOMC

2013-04-03

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2013-04-03

fortune tellers
The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and April, this year additionally fueled by "unlimited" quantitative easing, weaker gas prices and higher competitiveness thanks to a stronger Chinese yuan and weaker Asian economies.   Update 2013: The Case-Shiller index continued to climb in April 2013; it became clear that this year the "Sell in May" …

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Swiss Economic Indicators, March 2013

2013-03-27

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2013-03-27

GDP KOF Wages CPI PPI Trade Balance Consumption SECO Industrial Production Construction
  Switzerland continues to see a robust economy, even if the leading KOF indicator fell to 0.99 after highs of 1.68 in September. On other side, real and nominal wages continue to increase. As opposed to the KOF value, the UBS consumption indicator is rising. This shows that the internal economy is able to balance … Continue...

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The “Get Stress in May and Relax in October Effect” for the SNB

Sell in May, Come back in October
The U.S. economy regularly improves between October and March. The SNB should use the moment to sell some currency reserves. From May on, the typical seasonal effects will push the SNB into a defense.

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Eurozone PMIs (outdated)



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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update January 25

2013-01-26

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2013-01-26

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.  After a strong slowing in summer 2012 and the Fed’s QE3, this is the fourth month of improvements in global PMIs   January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are 15 countries that show values above 50 and 14 with values under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: …

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Swiss Purchasing Manager Index

Swiss SVME PM November 2012


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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 17

2012-12-20

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2012-12-20

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the leading and most important economic indicators.  Since the Fed’s QE3, this is the third month of improvements in global PMIs after a strong slowing in summer 2012.   January 25th Expansion-contraction ratio: There are as many countries that show values above 50 as under 50. Positive-negative-change ratio: 18 countries …

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Global Purchasing Manager Indices, Update December 10

2012-11-12

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2012-11-12

Global PMIs December 3, 2012
  Manufacturing PMIs are considered to be the most leading and important economic indicators. Jim O’Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, believes the PMI numbers are among the most reliable economic indicators in the world.  BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich thinks it’s one of the most underrated indicators. Global Purchasing Manager Indices for the manufacturing industry   December 3, 2012 …

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Swiss and German Economic Indicators, Update November 1

2012-11-01

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2012-11-01

Swiss & German Economic Indicators, August 2012
Euro Crisis Has Affected Germany, Switzerland Still Immune    Most Recent Events The Swiss SVME PMI has risen from 43.9 to 46.1. This PMI  is dominated by machinery, metallurgical and electric equipment exporters organized in the Swissmem organization. As opposed to the chemical industry, they were not innovative enough to adapt to the stronger franc; but …

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Euro Crisis Has Affected Germany, Switzerland Still Immune

2012-10-26

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2012-10-26

Swiss & German Economic Indicators, August 2012
Swiss and German Economic Indicators, October 2012   Both Swiss and German economic indicators show continued signs of stability, but the German situation has become worse and might affect the Swiss. Especially low unemployment, rising real wages and strong trade balances are signs of robustness. Despite that, Germany’s industrial production is weaker than last year, …

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Net Speculative Positions, FX Outlook, Global Stock Markets, Week September 10

2012-09-10

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2012-09-10

monopoly
  Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com Key policy makers are preparing new efforts to address the deterioration of financial and economic conditions.  This is seen reducing tail risks, which allowed the rally in risk assets to be extended, and undermined the dollar.  China is providing new fiscal support.  The ECB announced its new Outright Market …

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Net Speculative Positions, Technical Outlook, Global Markets Ahead of Eventful Week September 3rd

2012-09-03

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2012-09-03

FM TN G3D Chess1
Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com   The week ahead kicks off what we expect to be a period of intense event risk. The combination of positioning, judging from the futures market and anecdotal reports, and the low implied volatility in currencies and equity markets warn of heightened risk in the period ahead. The week begins …

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The End of ECB Rate Cuts or Draghi against Weidmann to be Continued..

2012-08-30

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2012-08-30

Draghi vs. Weidmann
  Even in the unlikely case of a fiscal union, the conflict “Draghi against Weidmann”, between the ECB and the Bundesbank will continue for years. The ECB mandate and european inflation figures do not allow for excessive ECB rate cuts or for state financing via the printing press, but Draghi wants to help his struggling …

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Economic Indicators: In Switzerland and Germany the Euro Crisis Seems to Be Far Away

2012-08-29

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2012-08-29

Swiss & German Economic Indicators, August 2012
 Swiss vs. German Economic Indicators, August 2012        Both Swiss and German economic indicators show continued signs of stability. Especially low unemployment, good retail sales and strong trade balances are signs of robustness. The German trade surplus has improved compared to last year, whereas the strong franc harmed the Swiss trade surplus just a bit. …

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10) Global Macro



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Net Speculative Positions , Global Markets and Outlook, week from August 20

2012-08-19

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2012-08-19

Economist Markets by Aug15, 2012
Currency Positioning and Outlook, week from August 20 Submitted by Mark Chandler, from marctomarkets.com The market is like expectant parents who don’t know the gender of the fetus.   They know something big is around the corner, but they don’t have enough information to make some important decisions.  They can contemplate the future, but there …

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Global PMIs Contracting More – Are Stocks Overvalued?

2012-08-07

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2012-08-07

Global PMIs July 2012
updated August 05,2012 We publish a detailed analysis of global PMIs and compare them with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD some days after most PMIs came out. Abstract: Thanks to positive US consumer confidence, stock markets are highly valued, whereas the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing industry are contracting …

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Global Macro with all Global PMIs July 4th

2012-07-04

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2012-07-04

On the way to a recession
updated July 4,2012 This page inside our macro data menu contains global PMIs  compared with the main risk indicators S&P500, Copper, Brent and AUD/USD as of the day after most PMIs came out. JP Morgan’s Global PMI:  Click for details inside the table, History of composite PMI  

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The “Sell in May, come back in October” effect and its equivalent for the SNB

2012-06-09

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2012-06-09

Sell in May, Come back in October
  The "Sell in May, come back in October" effect It is the same seasonal anomaly nearly every year: The statistically flawed (see here and here) Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report delivers some good winter readings with 200K new jobs, this time additionally fuelled by a weather effect; biased data that let hard-core Keynesian policy makers doubt Okun's law. Consequently the stock markets rally …

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