Tag Archive: newslettersent

Emerging Markets: What has Changed

2017-08-12

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2017-08-12

Tensions on the Korean peninsula are still rising. Hong Kong boosted its 2017 growth forecast. S&P affirmed Israel’s A+ rating but moved the outlook from stable to positive. The corruption investigation against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has intensified. South Africa's parliament voted down the no confidence motion against President Zuma. Argentina officials are taking steps to support the peso. Banco de Mexico has ended its tightening cycle.

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France: Le déficit chronique de la balance des paiements.

2017-08-12

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2017-08-12

La libre-circulation des biens, des services, des revenus, des capitaux et des personnes , appelée les 4 L, est mesurée entre autres par la balance des paiements. Celle-ci décrit selon la Banque de France: « les échanges économiques entre la France et les autres pays. Elle apporte une grille de lecture de référence sur la situation de notre pays dans une économie mondialisée.

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Real GDP: The Staggering Costs

2017-08-12

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2017-08-12

How do we measure what has been lost over the last ten years? There is no single way to calculate it, let alone a correct solution. There are so many sides to an economy that choosing one risks overstating that facet at the expense of another. It’s somewhat of an impossible task already given the staggering dimensions.

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Prepare for Another Market Face Pounding

2017-08-12

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2017-08-12

“Better than Goldilocks” “Markets make opinions,” goes the old Wall Street adage.  Indeed, this sounds like a nifty thing to say.  But what does it really mean? Perhaps this means that after a long period of rising stocks prices otherwise intelligent people conceive of clever explanations for why the good times will carry on.  Moreover, if the market goes up for long enough, the opinions become so engrained they seek to explain why stock prices...

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“Mystery” Central Bank Buyer Revealed: SNB Now Owns A Record $84 Billion In US Stocks

2017-08-11

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2017-08-11

Value of Swiss National Bank US Stock Holdings 2014-2017
In the second quarter of the year, one in which unlike in Q1 fund flows showed a persistent and perplexing outflow from US stocks and into European and Emerging Markets, a trading desk rumor emerged that even as institutional traders dumped stocks and retail investors piled into ETFs, a "mystery" central bank was quietly bidding up risk assets by aggressively buying stocks.

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FX Daily, August 11: Geopolitical Tensions Remain Elevated into the Weekend

2017-08-11

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2017-08-11

There has been no apparent attempt by either North Korea or the United States to ease the rhetorical flourishes that have made global investors nervous. Risk assets were liquidated, and the funding currencies, particularly the Japanese yen and Swiss franc were bought back. The yen gained nearly 1.6% this week, ahead of the US session, while the Swiss franc gained 1.3%.

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Would you take a pilotless plane?

2017-08-11

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2017-08-11

Pilotless cargo and passenger planes could be in use within eight years and save airlines billions, according to a report by Swiss bank UBS. But customers remain wary of the new technology despite potential fare reductions. “In the not-too-distant future, we would expect to see a situation where flights are pilotless or the number of pilots shrinks to one, with a remote pilot based on the ground and highly-secure ground-to-air communications,” the...

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Unions demand 2 percent wage increase as economy improves

2017-08-11

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2017-08-11

Staff should start enjoying the benefits of Switzerland’s improving economic performance, says the country’s second-largest trade union group, Travail. Suisse, which is demanding a 2% salary increase for workers. “It’s been some time since the economic perspectives have looked this positive. The forecasts announce solid and lasting economic growth. This recovery must have an impact on employees,” Travail.

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Industrial Production: Irreführende Statistiken

2017-08-11

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2017-08-11

Germany Industrial Production, SA 1997-2017
Germany’s Federal Statistical Office (DeStatis) reported today disappointing figures for Industrial Production. The seasonally-adjusted series fell in June 2017 month-over-month for the first time this year, last declining in December 2016. The index had been on a tear, rising nearly 5% in the first five months of this year.

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What Went Wrong With the 21st Century?

2017-08-11

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2017-08-11

Lydian gold stater minted under King Croesus ~540 BC.
POITOU, FRANCE – “So how much did you make last night?” “We made about $15,000,” came the reply from our eldest son, a keen cryptocurrency investor. “Bitcoin briefly pierced the $3,500 mark – an all-time high. The market cap of the entire crypto market shot up, too… with daily trading volume also rising.

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SNB Balance Sheet, Markets and Economy: As Good As It Gets?

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

Markets and Economy 1972 - 2017
Late 2014/early 2015 will perhaps be the closest to a real recovery from the Great “Recession” we shall see in this cycle.  Q1 2015 marked the peak year over year growth rate of GDP in this recovery at 3.76%. That rate compares quite unfavorably with even the feeble post dot com crash recovery high of 4.41% in Q1 2004.

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FX Daily, August 10: Tensions Remain Elevated, Dollar Firms

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

It is difficult to walk back the saber-rattling rhetoric. US Secretary of State Tillerson tried to defuse the situation, which had appeared to ease nerves in North America yesterday. However, references to the modernization of US nuclear forces, a multi-year project begun last year, spurred a fresh threat by North Korea to fire four intermediate range missiles near Guam in week's time.

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Risk Off: Global Stocks Slide As “Fire And Fury” Results In “Selling And Fear”

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

Volatility Pops, August 08 2017
US futures are set for a sharply lower open (at least in recent market terms) following a steep decline in European stocks and a selloff in Asian shares, following yesterday's sharp escalation in the war of words between the U.S. and North Korea. In a broad risk-off move U.S. Treasuries rose, the VIX surged above 12 overnight, while German bund futures climbed to the highest level in six weeks. The Swiss franc gained 1.2 percent to 1.1320 per euro...

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Increased demand from Asia helps fill Swiss hotel rooms

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

The number of overnight stays in Swiss hotels rose by 4.4% in the first half of 2017 compared to the same period the year before. Tourists from India and China were largely responsible for the increase in demand. According to figures released by Federal Statistical Office on Monday, tourists – both domestic and international – spent a total of 17.6 million nights in Swiss hotels during the first semester.

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Addax Petroleum to close operations in Geneva

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

Chinese-owned oil and gas extractor firm Addax Petroleum is shutting its offices in the Swiss city of Geneva as well as in Aberdeen, Scotland and Houston in the United States. The company on Monday confirmed a report by the Tribune de Genève newspaper, saying its parent firm Sinopec International Petroleum Exploration and Production Corporation (SIPC) would integrate the three offices into a new technical centre in Beijing by the end of this year.

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Oil Prices: The Center Of The Inflation Debate

2017-08-10

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2017-08-10

Real GDP in the Eurodollar Era 1993-2017
The mainstream media is about to be presented with another (small) gift. In its quest to discredit populism, the condition of inflation has become paramount for largely the right reasons (accidents do happen). In the context of the macro economy of 2017, inflation isn’t really about consumer prices except as a broad gauge of hidden monetary conditions.

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FX Daily, August 09: North Korea lets EUR/CHF Collapse

2017-08-09

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2017-08-09

The bellicose rhetoric from the US and North Korean officials is the main driver today. We would qualify that assessment by noting that first, the market moves are rather modest, suggesting a low-level anxiety among investors. Second, pre-existing trends have mostly been extended. Turning to Asia first, the Korea's equity market fell 1.1%. The Kospi has fallen for the past two weeks (~2.2%).

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Switzerland: Number of ‘near miss’ plane incidents double

2017-08-09

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2017-08-09

Switzerland’s transport safety authority reports an increase in serious violations of air safety regulations that could have potentially led to collisions. According the 2016 annual report of the Swiss Transportation Safety Investigation Board released end of July, the number of aviation incidents are on the decrease (1,219 in 2016 vs 1,260 in 2015).

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Aldi Switzerland stops selling eggs as insecticide scandal widens

2017-08-09

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2017-08-09

The discount supermarket chain Aldi Switzerland is withdrawing all imported eggs from sale at its 190 stores as a precaution, it said on Friday, as a scare over possible insecticide contamination spreads. Swiss eggs are not affected, officials say.

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Silver Mining Production Plummets 27 percent At Top Four Silver Miners

2017-08-09

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2017-08-09

Top Primary Silver Miners Q2 2017 Production Decline
Silver Mining Production Plummets 27% At Top Four Silver Miners by SRSRocco Report In an interesting change of events, production at four of the top primary silver miners plummeted during the second quarter of 2017. This goes well beyond normal fluctuations in mining companies production figures during different quarterly reporting periods.

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