Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, April 1: Hemorrhaging Resumes

2020-04-01

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2020-04-01

Overview: There is no reprieve for investors. Equities are falling sharply. Nearly all the Asia Pacific markets slumped but Australia. Chinese markets fared better than most, but the Nikkei was off 4.5%, and India was down almost as much in late dealings. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is off more than 3% near midday, led by a sell-off in banks that are suspending dividends and share buybacks.

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FINMA-Aufsichtsmitteilung: Befristete Erleichterungen für Banken infolge der COVID-19-Krise

2020-04-01

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2020-04-01

Mit der FINMA-Aufsichtsmitteilung 02/2020 gibt die Eidgenössische Finanzmarktaufsicht FINMA den Banken Präzisierungen zur Behandlung der bundesgarantierten COVID-19-Kredite im Rahmen der Eigenmittel- und Liquiditätsvorschriften, zu befristeten Erleichterungen bei der Leverage Ratio und bei den Risikoverteilungsvorschriften.

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UBS: Does Anyone Know What Is Happening?

2020-04-01

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2020-04-01

Does anyone know what is happening? Economic data is likely to become increasingly unreliable as a result of the coronavirus lockdown. We know the global economy will be bad. We will not know, with much accuracy, just how bad.

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Coronavirus: deciding who gets a ventilator

2020-04-01

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2020-04-01

By 31 March 2020, there were around 326 Covid-19 patients in intensive care and 228 on ventilators in Switzerland. It is estimated that there are around 750 ventilators across the country. If the health system reaches overload, medical professionals in Switzerland might be forced to make the kinds of difficult decisions being made in neighbouring France and Italy.

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China’s Back!

2020-04-01

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2020-04-01

China PMI, 2005-2020
The Washington Post began this week by noting how the US economy seems to have lost its purported zip just when it needed that vitality the most. Never missing a chance to take a partisan swipe, of course, still there’s quite a lot of truth behind the charge. An actual economic boom produces cushion, enough of one that President Trump and his administration may have been counting on it when opting for full-blown shutdown.

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End the Shutdown

2020-04-01

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2020-04-01

The shutdown of the American economy by government decree should end. The lasting and far-reaching harms caused by this authoritarian precedent far outweigh those caused by the COVID-19 virus. The American people—individuals, families, businesses—must decide for themselves how and when to reopen society and return to their daily lives.

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FX Daily, March 31: March Ends like a Lion, No Lamb in Sight

2020-03-31

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2020-03-31

Overview: The coronavirus plague upended the world in March. Equities are finishing the month on a firm note. Strong gains in the US yesterday and an unexpectedly strong Chinese PMI (yes, to be taken with the proverbial grain of salt) helped lift most Asia Pacific and European markets today. Japan and Australia are exceptions to the generalization.

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KOF Economic Barometer: Strongest monthly plunge since 2015

2020-03-31

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2020-03-31

KOF Economic Barometer, March 2020
The reading of the KOF Economic Barometer dropped drastically in March and is now with 92.9 well below its long-​term average. Accordingly, the Swiss economy can be expected to see a marked decline in growth rates in the near future. This plunge of the Barometer reflects the first economic consequences of the accelerated spread of the Coronavirus.

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USD/CHF Price Analysis: Intraday positive move stalls near the 0.9590 confluence region

2020-03-31

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2020-03-31

USD/CHF 1-hourly chart
USD/CHF finds decent support near 0.9500 mark and snaps four days of losing streak. The set-up warrants some caution before positioning for any further recovery move. The USD/CHF pair found a decent support near the key 0.9500 psychological mark and staged a goodish recovery on the first day of a new trading week, snapping four consecutive days of losing streak.

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Swiss real estate market suffers fallout from epidemic

2020-03-31

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2020-03-31

The Covid-19 crisis could spell an end to the previously rosy situation for Switzerland’s real estate investors. Investors in residential property look back on a successful 2019 both in terms of value increase and of returns. Forecasts for the current year were optimistic until recently, for both property owners and renters.

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Swiss firms rush to claim emergency coronavirus loans

2020-03-31

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2020-03-31

A third of a CHF20 billion ($21 billion) fund offering state guaranteed loans to small and medium sized Swiss companies has been used up just four days after being introduced. The loan facility has already promised CHF6.6 billion in funding of up to CHF500,000 to nearly 32,000 firms – an average of CHF207,000 per company.

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(No) Dollars And (No) Sense: Eighty Argentinas

2020-03-31

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2020-03-31

India Official Reserve Assets, 2016-2020
India like many emerging market countries around the world holds an enormous stockpile of foreign exchange reserves. According to the latest weekly calculation published by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the country’s central bank, that total was a bit less than half a trillion. While it sounds impressive, when the month began the balance was much closer to that mark.

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Oren Cass and the Conservative Critique of Pure Laissez-Faire

2020-03-31

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2020-03-31

Oren Cass is the executive director of American Compass (AmericanCompass.org), a conservative think tank that stresses the importance of family and domestic industry, in opposition to a singleminded devotion to economic efficiency. Cass was previously a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, and was the domestic policy director for Mitt Romney’s 2012 presidential campaign.

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FX Daily, March 30: Monday Blues

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

Overview: Risk appetites remain in check as the spread of the coronavirus is leading to more and longer shutdowns.  Asia Pacific equities fell with Australia, the notable exception.  Its benchmark rallied a record 7%, encouraged by additional stimulus measures.

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Record exports drive up Swiss chocolate sales

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

The value of Swiss chocolate exports topped CHF1 billion ($1.05 billion) for the first time last year, led by increased demand from Canada, the United States, China, the Middle East and Singapore. Domestic consumption of the delicacy also grew slightly following declining demand in previous years. Sales for Swiss chocolate makers rose 2.2% in 2019 to reach almost CHF1.79 billion.

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USD/CHF hits ten-day lows near 0.9550 as the greenback remains under pressure

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

USD/CHF Technical outlook
US Dollar Index tumbles to fresh weekly lows at 98.73, down 4% from the top.  US data: Consumer Sentiment Index suffers second-largest monthly decline in March. The USD/CHF pair is falling for the fourth consecutive day amid an ongoing sell-off of the US dollar. The DXY approached earlier on Friday the 100.00 area and recently bottomed at 98.73, the lowest level since March 17. 

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France drops blocks on face mask exports to Switzerland

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

After Germany, France has lifted restrictions on the delivery of hygienic face masks to Switzerland. Some two million masks are needed each day, according to the Federal Office for Public Health. The French embassy to Switzerland made the announcementexternal link on Saturday, paving the way for two shipments of FFP2 hygienic masks to go ahead from France to Switzerland.

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The New (Forced) Frugality

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

Personal Saving Rate, 1960-2020
There are only two ways to survive a decline in income and net worth: slash expenses or default on debt. In post-World War II America, the cultural zeitgeist viewed frugality as a choice: permanent economic growth and federal anti-poverty programs steadily reduced the number of people in deep economic hardship (i.e. forced frugality) and raised the living standards of those in hardship to the point that the majority of households could choose to be...

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The Last Thing We Need Right Now Is Bernie’s Proposed Tax on Financial Transactions

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

When one imagines working on Wall Street, he envisions stock traders scrambling to place buy or sell orders, perhaps even some puts or options. Today’s powerful artificial intelligence tools allow traders to game stock market trading. In some ways, this computer-driven high-frequency trading resembles actual gaming in that it may seem as if one is simulating various trading scenarios.

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Drivers for the Week Ahead

2020-03-30

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2020-03-30

Markets continue to digest the implications of the Fed’s bazooka moment last week. The data highlight this week will be March jobs data Friday; key manufacturing sector data will come out earlier in the week. On Friday, BOC delivered an emergency 50 bp rate cut to 0.25% and started QE.

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