Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, January 25: Euro Pares Yesterday’s Losses and Sterling Pulls Back after topping $1.31

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

Overview:  The US dollar is paring yesterday's gains against most of the major and emerging market currencies. Sterling pushed above $1.31, an 11-week high on news that the DUP would support Prime Minister's Plan B that calls for limits on the backstop with Ireland, something that the EC and Ireland have indicated are not on the table.

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Summary of Fox Biz Talk

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

I had a brief talk on the set with of Fox Business with Varney & Co today, but there is no video available. We began by talking about stocks. For several weeks, I have been suggesting to viewers that the S&P 500 could recover to 2700. Last Friday, the S&P 500 gapped higher and reached 2675. I did not like the gap and thought it would be quickly filled.

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China’s Eurodollar Story Reaches Its Final Chapters

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

PBOC Balance Sheet, Nov 2007 - 2018
Imagine yourself as a rural Chinese farmer. Even the term “farmer” makes it sound better than it really is. This is a life out of the 19th century, subsistence at best the daily struggle just to survive. Flourishing is a dream.

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Blockchain start-up growth bucks Swiss trend

2019-01-25

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2019-01-25

The number of blockchain companies in Switzerland grew 20% to reach 750 in the last three months of 2018. But the market capitalisation of such firms, measured by the dollar exchange rate of tokens in circulation, more than halved as crypto-assets nose-dived in value.

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FX Daily, January 24: Poor EMU PMI Compounds ECB’s Challenge

2019-01-24

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2019-01-24

Overview:  The eurozone's preliminary composite PMI for January fell to its lowest level since July 2013.  It reinforces expectations for a dovish Draghi press conference and saw the euro unwind yesterday's gains.  The US dollar is firmer against all the major currencies. 

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Switzerland scores well on youth job market conditions but suffers from skills mismatch

2019-01-24

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2019-01-24

Young-worker-Switzerland
A recent report places Switzerland second in a ranking of 33 european countries on conditions in the youth labour market in 2016 – youth are those between 15 and 24. Switzerland’s overall score of 5.67 out of 7.00 is close to Denmark’s 5.72. Switzerland’s highest scores are for employment rate (6.01) and working conditions (5.77), with education (5.36) and smoothness of transition to work (5.52) coming in lower.

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Gentrified Urban America Will Be Hit Hard by the Recession

2019-01-24

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2019-01-24

Retail Square Footage per Capita
Combine sky-high commercial rents in homogenized, gentrified urban areas and sharp declines in the incomes of the limited populace who can afford gentrified urban areas and what do you get? A number of macro dynamics have set up gentrified urban America for a big fall in the coming recession.

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FX Daily, January 23: Markets Walk Tightrope after Yesterday’s US Equity Drop

2019-01-23

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2019-01-23

Overview:  Global equities have fared better than the 1.4% slide in the S&P 500 yesterday may have implied. Asian markets were mixed, with China, Korea, Hong Kong, Thailand advancing. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 from Europe is a little changed after falling for the past two sessions. 

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ECB Preview: Worries Increase but Not Quite Ready to Act

2019-01-23

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2019-01-23

Draghi Conductor
The ECB meets Thursday, and it may be best conceived as a transition meeting. It will lay the rhetorical groundwork for two things: a likely downgrade to the staff's growth forecasts and moving toward a new round of long-term loans (targeted long-term refinance operations).

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Swiss unemployment lowest in 10 years

2019-01-23

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2019-01-23

Switzerland’s unemployment rate, now 2.6%, hasn’t been so low for 10 years, according to the latest figures from Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). A weakening of the Swiss franc helped boost Switzerland’s economic growth, creating more jobs.

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Brexit, EU, Germany, China and Yellow Vests In 2019 – Something Wicked This Way Comes

2019-01-23

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2019-01-23

Germany GDP, 2014 - 2018
“Something wicked this way comes” warns John Mauldin. Shaky China: Chinese landing could be harder than expected. Brexit and EU Breakage: “I have long thought the EU will eventually fall apart”. Helpless Europe: If Germany sneezes, their banks & the rest of continent catches cold. We may see “yellow vests” spread globally: Economics is about to get interesting …

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The Dollar Works Just Fine, Report 20 Jan 2019

2019-01-23

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2019-01-23

Gold and S&P: Correlation -0.82
Last week, we joked that we don’t challenge beliefs. Here’s one that we want to challenge today: the dollar doesn’t work as a currency, because it’s losing value. Even the dollar’s proponents, admit it loses value. The Fed itself states that its mandate is price stability—which it admits means relentless two percent annual debasement (Orwell would be proud).

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FX Daily, January 22: Dollar Consolidates and Equity Rally Stalls

2019-01-22

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2019-01-22

The US dollar is firmer against most major and emerging market currencies. The yen is a notable exception, and it is firmer, but well within recent ranges. The dollar-bloc currencies and the Norwegian krona are the weakest of the majors as a setback in equities and oil reflects a diminished risk appetite.

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Switzerland has second-most part-time workers in Europe

2019-01-22

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2019-01-22

Part-time work in Switzerland continues to increase, with the latest figures from the Federal Statistical Office showing that over a third of employees work less than 90%. The figures, said the statistical office on Thursdayexternal link, show a marked increase in part-time work over the past 20 years: from 26.3% to 36.7%.

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Want to Heal the Internet? Ban All Collection of User Data

2019-01-22

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2019-01-22

Internet Usage Growth Solid, 2008 - 2015
The social media/search giants have mastered the dark arts of obfuscating how they're reaping billions of dollars in profits from monetizing user data, and lobbying technologically naive politicos to leave their vast skimming operations untouched.

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Xapo shifting services from Hong Kong to Switzerland

2019-01-22

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2019-01-22

Bitcoin services provider Xapo is winding down activities at its Hong Kong base and transferring key operations to Switzerland. Xapo president Ted Rogers said the move has been driven by Switzerland’s friendlier regulatory environment. “It was once thought that Hong Kong was the holy grail of crypto regulations,” Rogers told swissinfo.ch at the World Web Forum in Zurich. “But it has become more opaque.”

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FX Daily, January 21: Chinese Data and UK Brexit Start New Week

2019-01-21

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2019-01-21

Overview: Mixed data from China and the anticipation of Prime Minister May's "Plan B" are the main talking points, while US stock and bond markets are closed today.  Asia Pacific equities were higher, while European markets have failed to follow suit.  Benchmark 10-year bond yields are mostly softer, with the on-the-run Japanese Government Bond yield dipping back into negative territory.

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FX Weekly Preview: Things to Watch in the Week Ahead

2019-01-21

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2019-01-21

"The sky is falling. The sky is falling," they cried, as equities plunged in December. It is signaling a recession, we were told. Instead, global equities have begun the year with a strong advance. The S&P 500 gapped higher ahead of the weekend, extending this year's rally to about 14%.

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European Central Bank likely to stick to script

2019-01-21

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2019-01-21

Falling ECB Market Rate Hike expectations 2018-2019
The ECB is comfortable with current market expectations for rate hikes.At its latest meeting in December, the ECB turned more cautious, lowering its growth forecasts but showing no sign of panic regarding the loss in euro area economic momentum. Risks were considered as “broadly balanced”, but moving to the downside.

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Swiss firms in record number of mergers and acquisitions

2019-01-21

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2019-01-21

The number of merger and acquisition deals involving Swiss companies hit a record high in 2018, according to a report by consultancy firm KPMG. Activity peaked in a number of sectors including financial services, consumer markets, technology, media and telecommunications, power and utilities, says KPMG. There were also a record number of private equity transactions.

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