Tag Archive: newsletter

Great Graphic: What is Happening to Global Equities?

2018-10-17

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2018-10-17

The decline in the global equity market is the most serious since the February and March spill. In this Great Graphic, the white line is the S&P 500. With the setback, it is up a little more than 8% for the year. It managed to recover fully from the sell-off earlier in the year.

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Now Back To Our Regularly Scheduled Economy

2018-10-17

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2018-10-17

Retail Sales, Gasoline 2011-2018
The clock really was ticking on this so-called economic boom. A product in many economic accounts of Keynesian-type fantasy, the destructive effects of last year’s hurricanes in sharp contrast to this year’s (which haven’t yet registered a direct hit on a major metropolitan area or areas, as was the case with Harvey and Irma) meant both a temporary rebound birthed by rebuilding as well as an expiration date for those efforts.

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Is the Canary in the Gold Mine Coming to Life Again?

2018-10-17

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2018-10-17

Canary
Back in late 2015 and early 2016, we wrote about a leading indicator for gold stocks, namely the sub-sector of marginal – and hence highly leveraged to the gold price – South African gold stocks. Our example du jour at the time was Harmony Gold (HMY) (see “Marginal Producer Takes Off” and “The Canary in the Gold Mine” for the details).

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FX Daily, October 16: Semblance of Stability Returns

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

Overview:  Although the S&P 500 was unable to sustain early gains yesterday, the largely consolidative session was part of the stabilization of equities after last week's jump in volatility.  Asia and European stocks are also cautiously steadying.  Most Asia equity markets advanced with the Nikkei's 1.25% advance most bourses higher.  China was a notable exception, The Shanghai Composite recorded new lows for the year and finished uninspiringly on...

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Devil is in the details: Italian and French deficits are not quite comparable

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

France Versus Italy: Government Budget Balance (% of GDP) 2009-2019
Italy’s structural weakness explain higher level of concern around its deficit target.Each EU member state is currently preparing 2019 budget plans for formal submission to the European Commission (EC) before mid- October. Among them, France and Italy’s budget plans have been raising eyebrows. Why is the EC concerned about Italy’s proposed 2.4% GDP deficit target for 2019 and not France’s target of 2.8%?

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You Can’t Eat Gold – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

You Actually Can Eat Gold, But Its Nutritional Value is Dubious. “You can’t eat gold.” The enemies of gold often unleash this little zinger, as if it dismisses the idea of owning gold and indeed the whole gold standard. It is a fact, you cannot eat gold. However, it dismisses nothing.

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Top US bank keen on Swiss mortgage market

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

Swiss retail banks may face increased competition by a leading United States bank on the domestic housing market. The Goldman Sachs group is reportedly considering plans to enter the Swiss mortgage market, according to the NZZ am Sonntag newspaper.

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Macro Cheat Sheet

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

Fred
The dollar's recovery ahead of the weekend was aided by the stabilization of the stock market, where the S&P 500 managed to close back above the psychologically important 200-day moving average. Interpolating from prices, the market does not expect the President's criticism to alter the Fed's course.

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Here’s Why the Next Recession Will Spiral Into a Depression

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

Gap in pension funding 2015-2016
Here's the difference between a recession and a depression: you can't get blood from a stone, or make an insolvent entity solvent with more debt. There are two basic differences between a recession and a depression: 1. Duration: a recession typically lasts between 6 and 18 months, while a depression drags on for years or even decades, often masked by official propaganda as "slow growth" or "stagnation."

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Are Credit Spreads Still a Leading Indicator for the Stock Market?

2018-10-16

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2018-10-16

US and Euro Area Spreads Compared, Sep 2016 - 2018
Seemingly out of the blue, equities suffered a few bad hair days recently. As regular readers know, we have long argued that one should expect corrections in the form of mini-crashes to strike with very little advance warning, due to issues related to market structure and the unique post “QE” environment.

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You Can’t Eat Gold, Report 14 Oct 2018

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Gold and Silver Price
“You can’t eat gold.” The enemies of gold often unleash this little zinger, as if it dismisses the idea of owning gold and indeed the whole gold standard. It is a fact, you cannot eat gold. However, it dismisses nothing. This gives us an idea. Let’s tie three facts together. One, you can’t eat gold. Two, gold is in backwardation in Switzerland. And three, speculation is a bet on the price action.

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FX Daily, October 15: Monday Blues

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Despite the pre-weekend gains that lifted the S&P 500 above its 200-day moving average, global equities are moving lower today. The main news over the weekend included the US renewing its threat to impose more tariffs on China and Saudi Arabia threatening retaliation for any sanctions relating to the disappearance of the journalist Khashoggi, and the lack of a breakthrough in UK-EU negotiations.

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Swiss Producer and Import Price Index in September 2018: +2.6 percent YoY, -0.2 percent MoM

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Switzerland Producer Price Index (PPI) YoY, September 2018
The Producer and Import Price Index fell in September 2018 by 0.2% compared with the previous month, reaching 103.2 points (December 2015 = 100). The decline is due in particular to lower prices for scrap. Compared with September 2017, the price level of the whole range of domestic and imported products rose by 2.6%. These are some of the findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO).

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One in three Swiss flights delayed

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

The Swiss International Airlines is among the worst victims of a shortage of air traffic controllers in Europe. About 34% of all Swiss flights are delayed because of issues with air navigation safety or at the airport, the SonntagsZeitung newspaper reports quoting data from Eurocontrol.

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FX Weekly Preview: Forces of Movement

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

There are three broad forces of movement in the week ahead: the equity market performance, political developments, and economic data. It was a tumultuous week for equities, and there was not clear or obvious trigger.  With US bond yields and equities trending higher this year, there does not seem to a reason why it ended last week. 

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How Many Households Qualify as Middle Class?

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

Ownership Society
By the standards of previous generations, the middle class has been stripmined of income, assets and purchasing power. What does it take to be middle class nowadays? Defining the middle class is a parlor game, with most of the punditry referring to income brackets as the defining factor.

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Special Edition: Markets Under Pressure (VIDEO)

2018-10-15

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2018-10-15

What does Alhambra Investments think about the 1300 point drop in the Dow Jones Average this week? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun has some thoughts.

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Over 27percent of Swiss workers are stressed

2018-10-14

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2018-10-14

Workplace stress in Switzerland is on the rise, particularly among younger workers – who often show up feeling unwell. The consequences are costly. The “Job Stress Index” – published by Health Promotion Switzerlandexternal link on the eve of World Mental Health Dayexternal link – has found that stress levels at work continue their upward trend.

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Gold’s Best Day In 2 Years Sees 2.5 Percent Gain As Global Stocks Sell Off – This Week’s Golden Nuggets

2018-10-14

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2018-10-14

Gold’s Best Day In 2 Years Sees 2.5 Percent Gain As Global Stocks Sell Off – This Week’s Golden Nuggets. News, Commentary, Charts and Videos You May Have Missed. Here is our Friday digest of the important news, commentary, charts and videos we were informed by this week. Market jitters and volatility have returned this week and the sell-off in US government bonds led to sharp falls on Wall Street centered on the very overvalued tech sector and the...

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Swiss Public Broadcaster to Shed Fewer Jobs than Expected

2018-10-13

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2018-10-13

The Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC) will shed fewer jobs than initially stated as it embarks on a four-year CHF100 million ($100 million) cost-cutting programme. Some 200 jobs are slated to go instead of the 250 announced in June.

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