Tag Archive: newsletter

Nothing To See Here, It’s Just Everything

2019-01-04

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2019-01-04

NYMEX WTI Futures 2016-2018
The politics of oil are complicated, to say the least. There’s any number of important players, from OPEC to North American shale to sanctions. Relating to that last one, the US government has sought to impose serious restrictions upon the Iranian regime. Choking off a major piece of that country’s revenue, and source for dollars, has been a stated US goal.

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Insane Repo Reminds Us

2019-01-04

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2019-01-04

Money Markets Equivalents 2009-2018
It was only near the quarter end, that’s what made it so unnerving. We may have become used to these calendar bottlenecks over the years, but they still remind us what they are. Late October 2012 was a little different, though. On October 29, the GC repo rate for UST collateral (DTCC) surged to 52.6 bps. The money market floor, so to speak, was zero at the time and IOER (the joke) 25 bps. We also have to keep in mind the circumstances of that...

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GBP/CHF Forecast: Swiss Franc at Best Level against the Pound in over a year

2019-01-03

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2019-01-03

Brexit uncertainty causes Swiss Franc to gain vs the Pound. The Pound is now trading at its lowest level to buy Swiss Francs in over twelve months as the political uncertainty surrounding the UK is continuing to negatively affect the value of Sterling exchange rates.

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Visitors flock to Swiss ski resorts over Christmas and New Year

2019-01-03

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2019-01-03

Ski resorts have reported a busy period over Christmas and the New Year with numerous visitors enjoying the sunny weather and good snow conditions. The chic resort of Verbier in canton Valais registered over 20,000 skiers a day over the Christmas period, Laurent Vaucher, director of the Téléverbier lift company, told Keystone SDA on Wednesday.

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The Crisis of 2025

2019-01-03

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2019-01-03

S-curve of Rapid Expansion, Stagnation and Decline
This is the predictable path because it's the only one that's politically expedient and doesn't cause much financial pain until it's too late to stave off collapse. While many fear a war between the nuclear powers or the breakdown of civil order, I tend to think the Crisis of 2023-26 is more likely to be financial in nature.

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The Bear Market Hook

2019-01-03

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2019-01-03

S&P 500 Large Cap Index
Has a Bear Market in Stocks Begun? The stock market correction into late December was of approximately the same size as the mid 2015/early 2016 twin downturns, so this is not an idle question. Moreover, many bears seem quite confident lately from an anecdotal perspective, which may invite a continuation of the recent upward correction.

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Change is in the Air – Precious Metals Supply and Demand

2019-01-02

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2019-01-02

Gold and Silver Price
Last week, the price of gold rose $25, and that of silver $0.60. Is it our turn? Is now when gold begins to go up? To outperform stocks? Something has changed in the supply and demand picture. Let’s look at that picture. But, first, here is the chart of the prices of gold and silver.

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European Perch Crowned Fish of the Year

2019-01-02

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2019-01-02

The European perch, or Perca fluviatilis, has been named the Fish of the Year for 2019. The Swiss Fishing Association said on Wednesday external linkthat it had chosen the perch to remind the public of its popularity, particularly as a culinary delicacy in Switzerland.

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A Word on Q3 COFER-It Might not be What You Think

2019-01-02

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2019-01-02

Foreign Exchange Reserves by Currency, Q1 2016 - Q3 2018
The IMF offers the most authoritative report on central bank reserves on a quarterly basis with a quarter lag.  The report, the Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), covering Q318 has been released.  It may be have been overlooked during the holidays, but if and when the pundits see it, the leading takeaway is that the dollar's share of global reserves fell below 62% for the first time five years.

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A Couple of Thoughts on 2019

2019-01-02

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2019-01-02

Americans paychecks are bigger than 40 Years ago, but their purchasing power has hardly budget 1964-2018
The story of the 21st century is debt is soaring while earned income is stagnating for the bottom 95%. Best wishes to all my readers and correspondents for a safe, healthy and productive 2019. Thank you, longstanding supporters, for renewing your financial support at the new year without any pathetic begging on my part. (The pathetic begging will commence shortly.)

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Nestlé beats Royal Dutch Shell to become top in Europe

2019-01-01

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2019-01-01

The Swiss-based food and drink multinational Nestlé is the most valuable European company, according to a new international survey. Nestlé edges out Royal Dutch Shell to move into 15th position worldwide – up three places with a stock market value of $252 billion (CHF250 billion), the annual report by the services company Ernst&Young found.

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Chart of the Week: The Dreaded Full Frown

2019-01-01

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2019-01-01

Eurodollar Futures Curve 2019-2024
I’m going to break my personal convention and use the bulk of the colors in the eurodollar futures spectrum, not just the single EDM’s (June) contained within each. The current front month is January 2019, and its quoted price as I write this is 97.2475. The EDH (March) 2019 contract trades at 97.29 currently and it will drop off the board on March 18.

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Police Warn of fake Swiss Franc Notes

2018-12-31

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2018-12-31

Swiss Francs
Since the beginning of December 2018 more and more counterfeit 100 Swiss franc notes have been appearing in the Swiss canton of Valais in and around Sion and Conthey. The fake notes, which the local Police say can be spotted if compared to real ones, have been making their way into circulation via shopping centres, kiosks and service stations in the Sion and Conthey region.

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Poll finds majority for greenhouse tax on plane tickets

2018-12-31

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2018-12-31

An overwhelming majority of people in Switzerland appear to be in favour of introducing a tax on plane tickets to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions. An online poll, published by the SonntagsZeitung newspaper, showed that 70% of respondents said they were prepared to pay between CHF12 to CHF50 ($12.2-$50.8) towards a CO2 tax depending on the duration of a flight.

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The Crisis of Capital

2018-12-31

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2018-12-31

US Average Hourly Wages, Seasonally Adjusted, 1964 - 2018
The undeniable reality of the 21st century economy is that capital has gained while labor has stagnated. While various critics quibbled about his methodology, Thomas Piketty's core finding--that capital expanded faster than GDP and wages/salaries (i.e. earned income from labor)--is visible in these charts.

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The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions

2018-12-31

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2018-12-31

The Recline and Flail of Western Civilization and Other 2019 Predictions. “I think it’s a tremendous opportunity to buy.  Really a great opportunity to buy.” – President Donald Trump, Christmas Day 2018. Darts in a Blizzard. Today, as we prepare to close out the old, we offer a vast array of tidings.

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Swiss Lead Ranking of Globalised Countries

2018-12-30

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2018-12-30

Switzerland was the most globalised country in the world, according to a 2016 survey by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute. It moved up one place to the top compared with the previous year. The Netherlands, Belgium. Sweden and Britain followed in the next places. The United States are in 23rd place and the Comoros, Afghanistan and Guinea-Bissau are bottom of the 195-country rankingexternal link, which was published on Thursday.

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Agism most frequent form of discrimination in Switzerland, according to survey

2018-12-30

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2018-12-30

Elderly-man
Growing old is something that happens to nearly all of us. However, according to a recent study close to one in three people (28%) reported age-related discrimination in Switzerland in 2017. The rate of age discrimination (28%) is higher than sexism (22%) and racism (12%), according to Christian Maggiori, a professor focused on social work interviewed by the newspaper La Liberté.

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Technical Musings about the Euro and Dollar Anchored by Macro

2018-12-30

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2018-12-30

Tunafish
The $1.1475-$1.1550 is an important area for the euro.  Many bulls see a rounded bottom being carved and a break above it would be embraced as a confirmation. The lower-end corresponds to the 100-day moving average. Such a bottom pattern, if confirmed, would project toward $1.1800 the high in H2 18. On the downside, the low from H2 18 was near $1.1200.  This is just above a key (61.8%) retracement of the January 2017-February 2018 rally. 

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Swiss Export Industry backs EU Framework Deal

2018-12-29

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2018-12-29

Hans Hess
Switzerland’s largest industrial employer, the Association of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering Industries, has come out in favour of a controversial accord, covering relations with the European Union. Hans Hess, president of Swissmem, said the draft agreement was tailor-made for Switzerland.

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