Tag Archive: newsletter

Train delay data queries image of Swiss railways

2019-02-11

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2019-02-11

Trains operated by the state-owned Swiss national railway operator are less punctual than company statistics make believe. A private website, launched in 2017 and compiled from data provided by the transport ministry, found that on average one in six intercity trains – or just under 84% - operated by the Federal Railways is late. That is, it arrives at its destination with a delay of at least three minutes.

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2019: The Three Trends That Matter

2019-02-11

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2019-02-11

Look no further than Brexit in Britain, the yellow vests in France and the Deplorables in the U.S. for manifestations of a broken social contract and decaying social order. Among the many trends currently in play, Gordon Long and I discuss three that will matter as 2019 progresses: 2019 Themes (56 minutes).

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Telecoms firms awarded 5G mobile frequencies

2019-02-10

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2019-02-10

The Swiss government has raised CHF380 million ($379 million) from auctioning fifth-generation (5G) mobile radio frequencies, it said on Friday. The three Swiss main providers, Swisscom, Sunrise Communications and privately owned Salt, each received part of the spectrum after newcomer Dense Air dropped out of the bidding.

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Swiss start-ups to benefit from multi-million fund

2019-02-10

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2019-02-10

Start-ups and innovative small and medium-sized businesses are to be encouraged to stay in Switzerland thanks to a new fund of up to CHF500 million ($499 million). The initiative, from Swiss Entrepreneurs Foundation (SwissEF) and launched on Thursday, has the backing of some heavy hitters in the business world, including insurer Mobiliar and banks UBS and Credit Suisse.

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Brace for Impact

2019-02-10

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2019-02-10

Spending by the top 5% pulls away from the 95%
As credit-asset bubbles pop, the dominoes start falling. The economy is far more precarious than the surface boom/bubble suggests. A great many households, enterprises and municipalities are in overloaded boats whose gunwales are just a few inches above the water; the slightest wave will swamp and sink them.

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Cool Video: Noise or Signal?

2019-02-10

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2019-02-10

From the second half of last week through the first half of this week, the S&P 500 rallied.  It surpassed our target of 2700 and made it to almost 2740, retracing more nearly 2/3 of the decline from the record high set last September. It stalled ahead of the 200-day moving average, which had previously offered support declines. 

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Sunrise confirms talks to buy Liberty Global’s Swiss unit

2019-02-09

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2019-02-09

Switzerland’s Sunrise Communications Group has confirmed it is in talks to buy Liberty Global’s cable operator UPC Switzerland. The company said in a statement on Tuesday: “Sunrise confirms it is in discussions with Liberty Global regarding a possible acquisition of UPC Schweiz. Sunrise will only pursue a transaction that is strategically compelling and demonstrably value creative for its shareholders.”

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More Of What Was Behind December, And Not Just December

2019-02-09

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2019-02-09

Rational Expectations
As more and more data rolls in even in this delayed fashion, the more what happened to end last year makes sense. The Census Bureau updated today its statistics for US trade in November 2018. Heading into the crucial month of December, these new figures suggest a big setback in the global economy that is almost certainly the reason markets became so chaotic.

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Monetary Metals Leases Gold to Quantum Metal

2019-02-08

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2019-02-08

Offers for Quantum Metal
Scottsdale, Ariz, February 8, 2019—Monetary Metals® announces that it has leased gold to Quantum Metal, to support the growth of its business of selling gold through retail banks. Investors earn 4.5% on their gold, which is held as Perth Mint minted gold bars in inventory. Monetary Metals has a disruptive model, leasing gold from investors who own it and subleasing it to businesses who need it, typically for inventory or work-in-progress.

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FX Daily, February 08: Dollar Index Seven-Day Advance is the Longest in Two Years

2019-02-08

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2019-02-08

Overview:  As North American traders return to their posts to put the finishing touches on the week's activity, the Dollar Index is extending its advance for a seventh consecutive session.  If sustained, it will be the longest advance since February 2017. 

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Albert Edwards: Investors Should Brace For A World Of Negative Rates, 15percent Budget Deficits And Helicopter Money

2019-02-08

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2019-02-08

Modern Money Theory, Jan 2004 - 2019
Eariler this week, when the San Fran Fed published a paper that suggested that the recovery would have been stronger if only the Fed had cut rates to negative, we proposed that this is nothing more than a trial balloon for the next recession/depression, one in which the Federal Reserve will seek affirmative "empirical evidence" that greenlights this unprecedented NIRPy step (in addition to QE of course).

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Over 18 million unsolicited calls made every month in Switzerland

2019-02-08

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2019-02-08

According to a consumer group, over 18 million unsolicited telephone calls are made every month in Switzerland. The SKS consumer group for German-speaking regions has addressed the problem of unsolicited phone calls in a letter sent to a Swiss parliamentary commission discussing the revision of the Swiss telecommunications law. A copy of the letter was recently published in Tamedia newspapers.

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Lost In Translation

2019-02-08

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2019-02-08

Japan - JGB's 2016-2019
Since I don’t speak Japanese, I’m left to wonder if there is an intent to embellish the translation. Whoever is responsible for writing in English what is written by the Bank of Japan in Japanese, they are at times surely seeking out attention. However its monetary policy may be described in the original language, for us it has become so very clownish.

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LIBOR Was Expected To Drop. It Dropped. What Might This Mean?

2019-02-08

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2019-02-08

Money Markets Equivalents 2007
Everyone hates LIBOR, until it does something interesting. It used to be the most boring interest rate in the world. When it was that, it was also the most important. Though it followed along federal funds this was only because of the arb between onshore (NYC) and offshore (mainly London, sometimes Caymans) conducted by banks between themselves and their subs (whichever was located where).

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FX Daily, February 07: Dollar’s Gains Extended

2019-02-07

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2019-02-07

The five-day advance of the S&P 500 stalled yesterday and global equities are mixed today. Most Asian centers remain closed, Japan and some small markets were lower, while Taiwan, Australia, and India moved higher. The seven-day rally in Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is under threat today.

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Tourists return to Swiss mountain destinations

2019-02-07

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2019-02-07

Overnight stays in Swiss Alpine resorts have increased for four consecutive seasons since winter 2016/17, with summer destinations doing better than winter destinations. Lucerne topped an international study of 145 resorts.

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Swiss bike couriers take out protection against Uber Eats

2019-02-07

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2019-02-07

Swiss bicycle couriers have signed a 'Europe-first' collective bargaining agreement deal aimed at protecting them from cheaper rivals, such as the food delivery service Uber Eats. The courier employer’s association Swissmessengerlogistics (SML) negotiated the contract with the trade union Syndicom on Tuesday.

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China’s S-Curve of Expansion, Stagnation and Decline

2019-02-07

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2019-02-07

China's S-curve, February 2019
All the policies that worked in the Boost Phase no longer work. Natural and human systems tend to go through stages of expansion, stagnation and decline that follow what's known as the S-Curve. The dynamic isn't difficult to understand: an unfilled ecological niche is suddenly open due to a new adaptation; a bacteria evolves to exploit a new host, etc.

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FX Daily, February 06: Dollar Gains by Default

2019-02-06

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2019-02-06

Overview: The rally in equities is threatening to pause today, even though the few markets open in Asia edged higher.  Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600, which has advanced in eight of the past ten sessions and six in a row, is seeing some profit-taking pressures.  US shares are also trading heavier in Europe.  The S&P 500 has a five-day rally in tow but looks poised for some backing and filling action. 

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Switzerland’s gender pay gap closes further

2019-02-06

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2019-02-06

A recent survey by the Federal Statistical Office shows the overall median pay gap in Switzerland’s private sector shrunk to 12% in 2016, down from 12.5% in 2014 and 15.6% in 2010. In 2016, median pay for women was CHF 6,011 francs a month and median pay for men was CHF 6,830. The gap rose to 18.54% for the highest management positions.

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