Tag Archive: newsletter

Gold to consolidate before further leg up

2019-02-20

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2019-02-20

Gold Demand Breakdown 2000-2019
Some recent factors supporting gold are fading. However, while gold could sag in the short term, medium-term prospects look better.Last year ended on a very strong note for gold demand, with a significant increase in jewellery and investment demand in the fourth quarter (see chart), leading to strong price performance (7.7% in US dollar terms in Q4).

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Central Planning Is More than Just Friction, Report 17 February

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

Yield Curve
It is easy to think of government interference into the economy like a kind of friction. If producers and traders were fully free, then they could improve our quality of life—with new technologies, better products, and lower prices—at a rate of X. But the more that the government does, the more it burdens them. So instead of X rate of progress, we get the same end result but 10% slower or 20% slower.

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FX Daily, February 19: Investors Need Fresh Incentives

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

Overview: Activity in the global capital markets is subdued as investors await fresh developments. New wording for the Irish backstop apparently is being drafted. US-China trade talks resume. No decision has been made on US auto tariffs, but European and Japanese officials seem to be playing down the threat. 

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Swiss Trade Balance January 2019: Start of a Positive year

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

Switzerland Trade Balance, January 2019
Swiss foreign trade started the year 2019 in a positive way. Seasonally adjusted exports rose by 1.1% to 18.9 billion francs and imports by 3.4% to 17.5 billion. The trade balance closed with a surplus of 1.4 billion francs.

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La Dépossession façon BNS. Entretien ORBIS TERRAE

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

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L’ouvrage de Vincent Held aborde une série de sujets brûlants : la politique d’affaiblissement du francs suisse menée par la Banque nationale suisse (BNS), l’imbrication de cette politique avec celles des banques privées suisses, la politique d’acquisition d’obligations d’Etat en dollars et en euros au détriment de la constitution d’un véritable fonds souverain… Le livre de M. Held touche au cœur nucléaire de la prospérité helvétique. Et ce qu’il...

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The SNB’s Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Series: Raghuram Rajan announced as next speaker

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has named Raghuram Rajan as this year’s speaker for its Karl Brunner Distinguished Lecture Series. Professor Rajan has made outstanding contributions to both economic practice and economic research on the global stage. His roles have included Governor of the Reserve Bank of India from 2013 until 2016 and Chief Economist at the IMF between 2003 and 2006.

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Ministers make the case for tax and pension reform package

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

The Swiss government has launched its campaign in favour of the upcoming national vote on a reform of the corporate tax and pension systems. Ministers for health and finance, Alain Berset and Ueli Maurer, presented their case at a press conference on Monday, urging citizens to vote ‘yes’ on May 19.

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China’s Big Money Gamble

2019-02-19

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2019-02-19

World Bank Pink Sheet Commodity Indices 1995-2019
While oil prices rebounded in January 2019 around the world, outside of crude commodities continued to struggle. According to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet, base metal prices fell another 1.8% on average from December. On an annual basis, these commodities as a group are about 16% below where they were in January 2018.

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FX Daily, February 18: Dollar Drifts Lower

2019-02-18

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2019-02-18

Overview:  In quiet turnover, the US dollar slipped lower against most of the major currencies to start the new week.  The news stream is light and the US markets are closed today.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up five of the past six weeks and extended its gains today.  Nearly all the equity markets in the region rose but India.

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FX Weekly Preview: Drivers, While Marking Time

2019-02-18

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2019-02-18

The main issues for investors have not changed. There are three dominant ones: Trade, growth, and Brexit. Unfortunately, there won’t be any closure in the week ahead, and that may make short-term participants reluctant to turn more aggressive.

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Wabco car systems manufacturer moves HQ to Switzerland

2019-02-18

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2019-02-18

Car systems manufacturer Wabco Automotive has opted to move its global headquarters from Brussels to the Swiss capital, Bern. The company has plans to set up a competence centre in autonomous driving in collaboration with Swiss universities. “Switzerland is world-renowned for providing a highly favorable environment for breakthrough innovations and offers many distinct advantages for corporate headquarters,” said chairman and CEO Jacques Esculier...

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Retail Sales Landmine

2019-02-18

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2019-02-18

Retail Sales, NSA 2011-2018
Ignore Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Those are merely an appetizer, an intentional preamble to whet the appetite of hungry consumers looking to splurge. The real action comes in December. People look, some buy, after Thanksgiving, but as anyone counts down the actual twelve days of Christmas and celebrates the eight crazy nights of Hanukkah that’s when the retail industry makes its bank.

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BLS train group to shelve 170 jobs by 2023

2019-02-17

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2019-02-17

The BLS train company, which operates several routes in the regions around Bern, is to cut some 170 positions over the coming four years, for reasons of efficiency and automation. In a move criticized on Thursday by rail unions, BLS announced the cuts as part of planned efficiency gains that aim to save between CHF50-60 million ($49.8-59.2 million) by 2023.

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What Happens When More QE Fails to Reverse the Recession?

2019-02-17

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2019-02-17

All Sectors; Debt Securities and Loans; Liability, Level 1960-2018
The smart money is liquidating assets, paying off debt and moving capital into collateral that isn't impaired by debt or speculative valuations. The Federal Reserve's sudden return to "accommodative" dovishness in response to the stock market's swoon telegraphs its intent to fire up QE once the recession kicks into gear.

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Euro area : What if car tariffs lie ahead ?

2019-02-16

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2019-02-16

Share in value added of Exports of car and car parts to the US
New US auto tariffs may impact the economy significantly more than the previous tariffs on steel and aluminium.Among the key risks for our euro area outlook, the threat of US auto tariffs is of major importance.The US Commerce Department’s investigation on national security threats posed by auto imports is due to be concluded on 17 February.

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Swiss unemployment rate rises

2019-02-16

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2019-02-16

There are various ways to measure unemployment. Switzerland’s standard measure looks at the number of people registered with unemployment offices across the country. By this measure Switzerland’s unemployment recently reached a 10 year low of 2.6%. Today, another unemployment measure was published. It shows a 0.1% increase in unemployment over the fourth quarter of 2018 to 4.6% or 227,000 people.

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Inflation Falls Again, Dot-com-like

2019-02-16

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2019-02-16

CPI Changes On Energy 2016-2019
US inflation in January 2019 was, according to the CPI, the lowest in years. At just 1.55% year-over-year, the index hadn’t suggested this level since September 2016 right at the outset of what would become Reflation #3. Having hyped expectations over that interim, US policymakers now have to face the repercussions of unwinding the hysteria.

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FX Daily, February 15: Equities Stall While Greenback Remains Firm

2019-02-15

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2019-02-15

Overview:  The S&P 500 snapped a four-day advance yesterday, and equities in the Asia Pacific followed suit.  All the markets in the region were lower but in Australia.  MSCI's regional benchmark stalled after reached a four-month high in the middle of the week.  European markets were mostly higher in the morning session after slipping yesterday. 

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Swiss Labour Force Survey in 4th quarter 2018: 0.8percent increase in number of employed persons; unemployment rate based on ILO definition at 4.6percent

2019-02-15

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2019-02-15

Unemployed According to ILO, Q1 2013-Q4 2018
14.02.2019 - The number of employed persons in Switzerland rose by 0.8% between the 4th quarter 2017 and the 4th quarter 2018. During the same period, the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.6%. The EU's unemployment rate decreased from 7.3% to 6.6%.

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Pressure mounts on Swiss commodity traders in Brazil corruption probe

2019-02-15

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2019-02-15

Pressure is growing on global commodity trading firms with strong ties to Switzerland for their alleged involvement in the “Car Wash” corruption scandal in Brazil. The US Federal Bureau of Investigation is investigating two Vitol executives in the Americas, according to Reuters news agency.

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