Tag Archive: newsletter

FX Daily, August 26: Trump’s “Call from China” helps Markets Recover

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

Overview:  The anticipated growth implications of the heightened tensions between the world's two largest economies is dominating activity at the start of the new week. These considerations that drove the 2.6% drop in the S&P 500 before the weekend is carrying over into today's activity.

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FX Weekly Preview: The Week Ahead is not about the Week Ahead

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

It's the last week of August. Several economic reports will be released in the coming days. They include the US deflator of consumer expenditures that the Federal Reserve targets, China's PMI, and the eurozone's preliminary August CPI. It is not that the data do not matter, but investors realize the die is cast.

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Media questions EFTA deal timing

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

“Playing with fire,” is the verdict of the Swiss press, in reaction to the free trade deal largely agreed between EFTA countries – among them Switzerland – and the Mercosur bloc, that includes Brazil. Questions have been raised over the timing of the agreement.

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Monthly Macro Monitor: Does Anyone Not Know About The Yield Curve?

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

Economic Growth & Investment
The yield curve’s inverted! The yield curve’s inverted! That was the news I awoke to last Wednesday on CNBC as the 10 year Treasury note yield dipped below the 2 year yield for the first time since 2007. That’s the sign everyone has been waiting for, the definitive recession signal that says get out while the getting is good.

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USD/CHF: Value of CHF calls hits highest since March 2018

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

CHF1MMR Q4 2017 - 2019
Risk reversals on Swiss Franc (CHF1MRR), a gauge of calls to puts, dropped to the lowest level in 17-months, indicating the investors are adding bets to position for a rise in the Swiss currency. The USD/CHF one-month 25 delta risk reversals fell to -1.41 – a level last seen in March 2018.

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The Benefits of a Profoundly Shattering Recession

2019-08-26

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2019-08-26

SPX Everything Bubble, 2000 - 2019
Does anyone really think The Everything Bubble can just keep inflating forever? What do I mean by a profoundly shattering recession? I mean, a systemic, crushing recession that can't be reversed with central bank magic, a recession that only deepens with time. The last real recession was roughly two generations ago in 1981; younger generations have no experience of a profound recession, and perhaps older folks have forgotten the shock, angst and...

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Swiss unemployment down in second quarter of 2019

2019-08-25

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2019-08-25

In the second quarter of 2019, the percentage of Switzerland’s population working rose by 1.1% and the percentage unemployed fell to 4.2%, based on the higher International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) measure. In the second quarter of 2019, 5.1 million people were working in Switzerland, 60% of the population. The number working rose 1.1% compared to the previous year, particularly among women (+2.0%).

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DM Equity Allocation Model For Q3 2019

2019-08-25

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2019-08-25

We recently introduced our Developed Markets (DM) Equity Allocation model. Building on the success of our EM model, this new framework extends our analysis to cover 24 DM equity markets. Our analysis is meant to assist global equity investors in assessing relative sovereign risk and optimal asset allocation across countries within the DM universe.

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Swiss post rolls out more secure version of e-voting platform

2019-08-25

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2019-08-25

The publicly-owned company Swiss Post, which had abandoned its electronic voting system in July over security concerns, has developed a new version. "We have already proposed a solution" to cantons, said general manager Roberto Cirillo in an interview published by the La Liberté newspaper on Friday.

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Germany’s Superstimulus; Or, The Familiar (Dollar) Disorder of Bumbling Failure

2019-08-24

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2019-08-24

European Economy, 2004-2019
The Economics textbook says that when faced with a downturn, the central bank turns to easing and the central government starts borrowing and spending. This combined “stimulus” approach will fill in the troughs without shaving off the peaks; at least according to neo-Keynesian doctrine. The point is to raise what these Economists call aggregate demand.

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Swiss health insurers to send patients to pharmacy first

2019-08-24

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2019-08-24

Swiss healthcare is typically ranked the world’s second most expensive, as a percentage of GDP, after the US. In Switzerland, compulsory health insurance premiums cover 37% of healthcare costs. Much of the rest is covered by tax payers and non-reimbursable out-of-pocket payments by individuals.

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G7 to Deliver a Nothing Burger

2019-08-24

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2019-08-24

A Bloomberg article about the weekend G7 meeting says, "multilateralism is dead."  An op-ed in the Financial Times suggests that the most important political alliance may be "rejuvenated" at the G7 meeting.  The truth is likely found somewhere in between. 

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FX Daily, August 23: Market has Second Thoughts on Magnitude of Fed Cuts Ahead of Powell

2019-08-23

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2019-08-23

Powell speech at Jackson Hole stands before the weekend.  Equities in Asia and Europe are finishing the week on a firm tone.  Most markets in the Asia Pacific region closed higher today, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index snapped a four-week slide.  European bourses are edging higher, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is poised to end its three-week air pocket.

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Swiss food-waste pioneer wins CHF200,000 prize

2019-08-23

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2019-08-23

This year’s CHF200,000 ($204,000) J.E. Brandenberger Foundation prize has been awarded to Yvonne Kurzmeyer, founder of the charity organisation Schweizer Tafel. The organisation redistributes over 4,000 tonnes of food a year to underprivileged groups in Switzerland.

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Our Wile E. Coyote Federal Reserve

2019-08-23

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2019-08-23

Whatever the Fed chooses to do, it's already failed.. Wile E. Coyote has gotten a bad rap: in all fairness, his schemes are ingenious, if overly complicated, and it's not his fault that the Acme detonator misfires or the Road Runner doesn't respond as predicted. Every set-up to nail the Road Runner should work. That it fails and leaves him suspended over the cliff for a woefully brief second to intuit his impending doom really isn't his fault.

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Die Nationalbank riskiert Ärger mit Donald Trump

2019-08-22

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2019-08-22

Die Deviseninterventionen der Schweizerischen Nationalbank sorgen für Spannungen. Die Schweiz läuft Gefahr, von den USA als Währungsmanipulatorin gebrandmarkt zu werden. (K)ein Grund zur Sorge? In den vergangenen Wochen hat die Schweizerische Nationalbank (SNB) wiederholt am Devisenmarkt interveniert, um den Franken davor zu bewahren, noch stärker gegen die wichtigsten Handelswährungen wie Euro und Dollar zu steigen.

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Dollar Firm Ahead of Jackson Hole

2019-08-22

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2019-08-22

FOMC minutes were not as dovish as many had hoped; bond and equity markets are set up for a big reset. Today sees the start of the annual Fed symposium in Jackson Hole; the US reports a slew of data. Markit flash eurozone August PMI readings were reported; ECB publishes the account of its July 25 meeting.

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FX Daily, August 22: Tick Up in EMU PMI Does Little, Waiting for Powell

2019-08-22

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2019-08-22

Overview:  Soft data in Asia and the continued decline in the yuan (six days and counting) prevented Asian equities from following the US lead from yesterday when the S&P 500 advanced by 0.8%.  European shares are paring yesterday's 1.2% advance despite an unexpected gain in the EMU flash PMI.  US shares are little changed in the European morning.

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Big firms required to publish gender pay gap in 2021

2019-08-22

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2019-08-22

Large companies in Switzerland will have to analyse wages of men and women starting in 2020 and make the audited results available to staff in 2021. The Federal Council agreed on Wednesday that the equal pay revision to the Gender Equality Act, passed by parliament in December 2018, will come into force on July 1, 2020.

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FX Daily, August 21: European Stocks Snap Back, Market Hopeful Italian Election can be Delayed

2019-08-21

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2019-08-21

The end of the US equity three-day advance yesterday weighed on Asia Pacific shares today.  Most benchmarks fell.  Better than expected trade data helped Thailand buck the trend.  A firmer tone emerged in the European morning, and the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has recouped yesterday's losses and more.  It was led higher by consumer discretionary, energy, and industrials.

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